Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 241851
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
151 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NOTE: DUE TO DELAYED TRANSMISSION...THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT
YET AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISCUSSION.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...AS A WARM FRONT CONTS TO PUSH N ACRS
THE NT1 WTRS...PER THE LATEST SFC OBS AND A 1518Z ASCAT-A PASS
ITS ASCD SLY GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACRS THE ERN
NT1 AND NE NT2 WTRS AT THE MOMENT. THE NEW 12Z MDLS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THAT AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES OFF TO THE N THAT THIS
GRADIENT WL WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY TONITE. THEN THE 12Z
MDLS SHARE SMLR FCST TIMING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFSHR LATE
TONITE/TUE...THEN STALL SW/NE ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS TUE
NITE. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE 12Z MDLS ASCD FCST GRADIENTS
THRU TUE BEING MINIMAL...OVERALL BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE THRU THEN AND AS A RESULT WL POPULATE OUR
FCST WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 30M AND 10M BL
WINDS FOR TONITE/TUE WHICH WL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHNGS TO THE PREV
OFSHR FCSTS.

THEN IN GNRL THE 12Z MDLS ALL FCST A DVLPG LOW TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND MOV NE TO OFF THE SE COAST TUE NITE...CONT NE UP THE
MID ATLC LATER WED...THEN PASS NE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS WED NITE. WL
DISREGARD THE 12Z NAM/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR THIS LOW AS BOTH LOOK TOO
FAST AND TOO WEAK. IN REGARDS TO THE FCST TRACK OF THIS LOW...THE
12Z GFS/GFSP/UKMET (AND OLD 00Z ECMWF) ALL SHARE SMLR TIMING BUT
THE UKMET/ECMWF CONT TO FCST A TRACK FURTHER W THAN THE GFS/GFSP.
WITH THE 12Z GEFS MEAN INDICATING THAT THE 12Z GFS TRACK IS LKLY
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR E...BELIEVE A COMPROMISE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FCST
TRACK WULD BE BEST. IN REGARDS TO THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH
THIS LOW...OVERALL BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. THEREFORE PLAN ON POPULATING WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M
BL WINDS FOR TUE NITE INTO WED NITE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A SCNDRY COLD
FRONT AND/OR SFC TROF WL SWEEP SE ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS LATE
THU/THU NITE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BLDS IN FM THE W WHICH WL RESULT
IN A MOD STRONG (GNRLY UP TO 20-25 KT) NWLY GRADIENT PERSISTING
THRUT MUCH OF THE OFSHR WTRS. THEN AS THE MDLS ALL FCST A HIGH
PRES RIDGE TO BLD TO THE COAST FRI...THEN PASS OFSHR FRI NITE/SAT
IT WL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW FAST TO FCST CONDS TO DMNSH. THEN
THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WL SHIFT TO ACRS
THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATE SAT/SAT NITE WHICH WL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
PASS NE ACRS THE NRN WTRS WITH A GRADLY STRENGTHENING ASCD SWLY
GRADIENT DVLPG ACRS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. SO FOR THE LONG
RANGE PLAN ON CONTG TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WIND FOR
THU THRU FRI NITE...THEN WL TRANSITION TO THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS
FOR SAT/SAT NITE.

SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED A LTL TOO LOW ACRS
THE SRN NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS BUT OTHERWISE ITS FCST SEAS LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE THRUT THE FCST PERIOD. SO UNLESS THE 12Z ECMWF WAM
BCMS AVAILBLE LATER...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH
THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III THRU SAT NITE WITH ADDITIONAL EDITS OVER THE
SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT OBS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE DVLPG LOW TRACKS NE
UP THE COAST...THE 12Z ETSS AND 12Z ESTOFS FCST A SMLR POSITIVE
SURGE TO DVLP WED INTO WED NITE ALONG THE MID ATLC TO SRN NEW
ENGLD COASTS WHICH IF THE 12Z GFS FCST TRACK VERIFIES LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. BUT IF THE MR WWD UKMET TRACK VERIFIES THEN THESE
VALUES WL LKLY BE TOO LOW.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
 GALE TONIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
 GALE TONIGHT. GALE WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
 GALE TONIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
 GALE TONIGHT. GALE WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE WED.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE WED.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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