Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 031344
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
844 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

06Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH OVERALL MDL AGRMT GOOD
THRU FRI THE PREVIOUSLY POPULATED WIND GRIDS LOOK GOOD. AFTER 00Z
SAT WITH GFS CONTG TO DEPART FM MDL CONSENSUS ESPCLY IN SRN WTRS
THE PREVIOUS FCST REASONING PREFERRING 00Z ECMWF LOOKS VALID.
CURRENTLY HAVE WND GRIDS APCHG GALE AHD OF FNT IN GLF OF MAINE
TONIGHT WITH 10M WNDS PREFERRED IN SLY FLOW AHD OF FNT. ECMWF
APPRS TO LEND SPRT WITH 10M WNDS ONLY UP TO 28 KT. WE WL BE
DEALING WITH DEPARTING COLD AIR OVR THE WTR GIVING WAY TO STG WAA
SO ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY MAY BE EARLY TONIGHT.

SEAS...BOOSTED THE CURRENT WAVE GRIDS BY 10 PCT TWD THE HIGHER 00Z
ECMWF WAM FOR FIRST PRD ASCD WITH DMSHG NW FLOW ESPCLY OVR OUTER
WTRS. OTRW NO SGFNT CHANGES NEEDED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE DAY 5 TIME FRAME.
POPULATED WIND GRIDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN 00Z
ECMWF THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWING GALE CONDITIONS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF NT1
AND NTN NT2 WATERS...AND IS BEING CONFIRMED BY LATEST SFC DATA.
MODELS HAVE GALES MOVING E OF THE AREA BY 09Z THIS MORNING...AND
PLANNING TO HAVE WINDS SUBGALE AT THAT TIME. BUT WILL LOOK AT
INITIAL CONDITIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE IF GALES HAVE
INDEED MOVED E OF THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGRMT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. FRONT
APPROACHES COAST TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHR WED. FRONT STALLS ACROSS
CNTRL NT2 WATERS WED NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE
FRONT AND ACROSS THE CNTRL NT2 WATERS THU. FRONT THEN PUSHES THRU
SRN WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M
WINDS FOR THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE
STABLE AND COOLER SSTS OVER NT1 WATERS. FOR WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DVLPG IN THE STRONG CCA
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL POPULATE WITH THE 30M WINDS IN THE NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GALES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GALES EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NT1 AS WELL AS NRN AND
CNTRL NT2 WATERS IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR POST
FRONTAL GALES...WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL NT2
WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT WILL ALSO ADD GALES TO THE NRN NT2
WATERS THU NIGHT AS BOTH THE 30M GFS AND THE 10M UKMET ALL SHOWING
GALE CONDITIONS DVLPG A BIT FURTHER TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR SAT...ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TREND OF USING MORE STABLE 10M WINDS FOR THE SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMT WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. GFS DOES DVLP LOW ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THRU AREA EARLIER IN THE
WEEK S OF THE AREA AND MOVES IT INTO SRN WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET KEEP ANY LOW DVLPMT WEAK AND
SUPRRESSED TO THE S THRU THE FCST PERIOD. WILL TRANSITION WIND
GRIDS TO 00Z ECMWF BEGINNING 00Z SAT AND CONTINUE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

.SEAS...POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF
WAVE AND 00Z WNA UNTIL 00Z SAT AS IT CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE ECMWF WAVE AND THE
LOWER VALUES OF THE WNA. AFTER 00Z SAT WILL POPULATE WITH 00Z
ECMWF WAVE AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...AS
AM LEANING TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WINDS DURING THIS PORTION OF
THE FCST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...00Z ESTOFS SHOWING BETWEEN A
HALF A FT TO A FT SURGE ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT IN THE SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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