Marine Interpretation Message
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450
AGNT40 KWNM 121811
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
111 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRES OVER THE FAR S MID
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N78W WITH STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E.
HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 1510Z WITH VERY GOOD COVERAGE OVER OFFSHORE/COASTAL WATERS
INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE NT1 AND FAR
NE NT2 WATERS...AS WELL AS THE FAR SRN NT2 WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS
WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.

THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AS
LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVER SRN PORTION WHILE LIFTING TO THE NE.
THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 06Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS
AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM. STILL EXPECTING A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING OVER ANZ925 AND ANZ930 AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL GALES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH
WIDESPREAD GALES IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SAT AND CONTINUING ONTO
SUN AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OFFSHORE SUN
NIGHT AND MON...THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA TUE. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE E COAST...THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER COMPARED TO THE
06Z RUN...THOUGH IT STILL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAN
THE 12Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF/GEM. AT THE PRESENT TIME...WILL DEFER
TO THE 00Z ECMWF FROM 12Z TUE AND BEYOND AS IT IS NOT TOO FAR OFF
FROM THE 12Z UKMET. AS USUAL...WILL MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER
VIEWING 12Z ECMWF. IN SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS USING THE
GFS 30M WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH 03Z MON...THEN WILL TRANISITION TO
10M WINDS THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL THEN POPULATE USING THE ECMWF
WINDS FROM 12Z TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD.


.SEAS...THE LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
WERE MOSTLY WITHIN A FT OR SO OF THE MWW3 OVER THE
OFFSHORE/COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE WAVE GRIDS...WILL USE THE MWW3
THROUGH 09Z TUE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST SEAS A FEW FT SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SUN IN THE STRONG CAA. WILL THEN USE THE ECMWF WAM
FROM 12Z TUE AND BEYOND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
FCST TO DVLP IN THE NWLY GRADIENT FM THE MID ATLC COAST NWD ALONG
THE NEW ENGLD COAST SAT INTO SUN...THE 00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST A
MR SIG NEGATIVE SURGE TO DVLP THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ETSS. STIL
BELIEVE A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TWO MDLS WL LKLY VERIFY BEST.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE SAT.
     STORM SAT NIGHT.
     GALE SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE SAT.
     STORM SAT NIGHT.
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE SAT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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