Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 290729
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS T.D. EIGHT CENTERED ABOUT
30 NM E OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH T.D. NINE CENTERED ABOUT 80 NM
SW OF KEY WEST...AND HURCN GASTON CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM E SE OF
BERMUDA. REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON T.D. EIGHT/T.D. NINE/HURCN GASTON. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT AND
ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING DID NOT GIVE ANY
COVERAGE OVER T.D. EIGHT...BUT DO SHOW AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN
THE OUTER ZONES OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT
DATA AT 0630Z SHOWS A FEW SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...INCLUDING ON THE WRN SIDE OF T.D. EIGHT.

MODELS...00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT
FASTER AND STRONGER WITH T.D. NINE ON FRI AND FRI NITE. 00Z
UKMET LOOKS CLOSE TO ECMWF/GFS WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF T.D. EIGHT
AND T.D. NITE...BUT IS GENERALLY MUCH STRONGER WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
00Z GEM IS SLOWER AND SIGNIF STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MDLS WITH
T.D. NINE. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FCSTS FOR T.D. EIGHT AND
T.D. NITE LOOK CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS...ALTHO THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO
WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND WILL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP WHEN DOING
THE WIND GRIDS. AM PLANNING TO USE THE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN FOR THE
WIND GRIDS DURING THE FCST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPCOMING FCST TRACKS FOR T.D. EIGHT AND T.D.
NINE.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE 00Z ECMWF WAM
INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. IN GENERAL THE 00Z ECMWF WAM
LOOKS UNDERDONE IN THE NT2 AREA FOR TODAY INTO THU...AND THE MORE
ROBUST 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III IS PREFERRED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. 00Z
WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECWMF WAM LOOK DIFFERENT OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS
FOR THU NITE THRU FRI NITE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF T.D. NINE...AND
SINCE DO NOT HAVE A PREFERRED WAVE HT MDL FOR THIS PERIOD WILL GO
WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MDLS HERE AS AN ATTEMPT AT SMOOTHING OUT
THE MDL DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     TROPICAL STORM TUE.
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE.
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     TROPICAL STORM TODAY INTO TUE.
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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