Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 290241
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1041 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

FRNT STRETCHES FROM LOW PRES SE OF GREENLAND TO LINK WITH A WRM
FRNT THAT STRETCHES NE FROM LOW PRES 998 MB 600 NM NE OF THE
REGION. AN OCLDD FRNT STRETCHES NE FROM LOW PRES 992 MB JUST NE OF
THE BALT CNYN WTRS INTO THE 998 MB LOW ABOVE AND COLD FRNT FROM
998 MB LOW STRETCHES SW TO PASS 240 NM E OF THE REGION. INLAND HGH
PRES HAS A RIDGE INTO MOST OF THE REEGION. THE PRES GRDNT IS SLCK
AND MAX OBS WINDS ARE ONLY 20 KT. THE HGHST SEAS TO 20 FT ARE OVR
THE FAR NE PARTS AND THE NWW3 MULTI GRID WV MDL FITS WELL WITH THE
OBSVD SEAS PATTERN.

THE GLB MDLS HV INITIALIZED WELL AND THEY ARE IN GUD AGRMNT IN
THE SHORT TERM. SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FRCST MDL
SOLN.IN THE SHORT TERM LOW PRES TO THE NE WILL MOVE NE AND DSIPT
WHILE INLAND HGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT
WILL TIGHTEN AS HGH PRES BUILDS IN MOSTLY OVR THE CNTRL REGION AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A TROF WILL FORM OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS TONITE...THEN
MOVE SE OF THE NT2 AREA SUN. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR SUN
AND SUN NITE...THEN PASS SE ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS MON. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS MON AND MON NITE. ANOTHER TROF
WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 WTRS TUE AND TUE NITE. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NITE...PASS E OVER THE NRN
NT2 WTRS WED...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE WHILE INTENSIFYING LATER
WED AND WED NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR LATE WED AND WED
NITE...THEN PASS E OVER THE WTRS THU. A WARM FNT WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS THE NT1 AREA THU NITE...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE NT2
WTRS.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE 12Z GFS IS
AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR THE LATE TUE THRU WED NITE PRD...SINCE IT IS
SIGNIF FASTER THAN THE OTHER 12Z MED RNG MDLS WITH THE DVLPG LOW.
WILL USE THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LATE TUE THRU THU NITE PRD...SINCE
IT IS A GUD MEDIAN SOLN FOR THAT TIMEFRAME AND HAS GUD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE. OTHW...THE 12Z GFS 30M
SOLN WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED
WELL ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT
INTO TUE AFTN...SO WILL JUST USE THE 12Z MWW3 FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS
DURING THIS PRD. 12Z MWW3 IS A FEW FEET HIGHER OVER THE NRN NT2
WTRS ON TUE NITE AND WED...THEN THE 12Z ECMWF WAM IS HIGHER OVER
PARTS OF THE NT1 WTRS THU AND THU NITE. WILL GO WITH A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE 12 MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE LATE TUE THRU THU NITE PRD TO
SMOOTH OUT THE MDL DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS HAS BEEN FCSTG A NEG
SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST MON NITE INTO TUE.
THE ETSS HAS CORRESPONDING NEG SURGE VALUES OF 1.0 FT OR LESS.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SUN.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SUN INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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