Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 281425
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
725 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER THE FAR WRN PZ5
WATERS W/A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE REST OF THE PZ5/PZ6 WATERS.
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT SO WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS INTERMEDIATE UPDATE. CURRENT GALE
HEADLINES IN PLACE WILL REMAIN AS IS.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRES AREA 35N137W 1032 MB EXTENDS A RDG OVER WTRS FM NRN CA
NWD WHILE A DSIPTG CDFNT IS OVER CENTRAL CA WTRS AND WK TROF IS
INLAND OVR CA. STG FNTL SYSTEM CONSISTING OF WRM FNT FOLLOWED BY A
CDFNT LIES W OF 137W. STRONG WLY FLOW BTWN TOP OF RDG AND INLAND
LOW OVR SRN BC IS PRODUCING WNDS 25 TO 30KT NE WA WTRS AS SEEN IN
0613Z ASCT-B PASS. SWATH OF N WNDS OF AT LEAST 25 KT EXTENDS SW FM
NRN AND CENTRAL CA CST...BUT MAY MISS STRONGEST WNDS. SOME CENTRAL
CA CSTL BUOYS GUSTING TO 33 KT AS OF 09Z. 00Z GFS 30M WNDS APPR
REPRESENTATIVE TO START NEW FCST.

00Z GUIDANCE WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 09Z TUE AND THEREFORE
FAVOR 00Z GFS...30M WNDS FOR SAT THEN TRANSITIONING TO 10M WNDS
EARLY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGING OVR WTRS PERSISTING SAT AND SAT
NIGHT OVR NRN CA AND SE PZ5 WTRS THEN WKNG WHILE SHIFTING S AND SW
SUN AND SUN NIGHT WHILE THE FRONT FM THE W APCHS LATE SAT BEFORE
STALLING OVR NW PZ5 AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS A DVLPG LOW
MOVS NE ALONG THE FNT. AS FOR THE TRACK/INTSTY OF LOW GFS IS
FAVORED...HAVING TRENDED DEEPER LAST TWO RUNS AND BRFLY DVLPG MRGL
GALES EVEN IN 10M WNDS IN NWRNMOST ZONE SUN NIGHT AS LOW PASSES W
AND THEN N OF PZ5 AREA. ECMWF/UKMET TAKE LOW A BIT FARTHER W AND
ARE DEEPER BUT RESULT IN SIMILAR GRADIENTS AND 00Z GEM IS
FARTHEST W. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACK. LOW PUSHES FNT
THRU PZ5 AREA AND NRN AND CENTRAL PZ6 WTRS MON AND MON NIGHT WITH
RDG REBUILDING BHND FNT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LOW PRES
TROF CROSSING PZ5 WTRS WTRS FM W LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EVEN
DVLPG A LOW...VERSUS 00Z GFS REMAINING WK. FOR THIS REASON FAVOR
00Z ECMWF WITH ITS COMPROMISE SOLN...NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS 00Z
GEM/UKMET AND INCRG WNDS OVR PARTS OF PZ5 WITH TROF INTERACTING
W/THE BUILDING HIGH FM W BUT WILL KEEP BLO GALE FRC.

OF NOTE...CONCERNING THE SRN CA WATERS 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
SUPPORTIVE IN IDEA OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TROUGH NR THE CA
COAST TUE AND WED INTERACTING W/THE HIGH PRES RIDGE. WITH LOW TO
MDT CONFDC STARTED GALES OVR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA WTRS
LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT AND USED 00Z ECMWF...WITH ITS WNDS BOOSTED
BY ABT 10 PCT.

.SEAS...USED 12Z NWW3 WHERE GFS WINDS WERE FAVORED EXCP STARTED
WITH 00Z ECMWF WAM WHICH IS CLOSER TO ANALYSIS...AND 00Z ECMWF
WAVE MODEL WHERE ECMWF WINDS WERE FAVORED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SUN NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ835...INNER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ940...OUTER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO 120W...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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