Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGPN40 KWNM 230344
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
844 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

LOW PRES 1004 MB OVR THE NW PARTS OF THE WASH WTRS HAS A TROUGH
STRETCHING S ACRS THE NRN WTRS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NE AS WEAKENS
AND WILL DISPT. ANOTHER FRNTL SYS WIL APPROACH THE NRN WTRS
IMMEDIATELY. LOW PRES WILL DVLP ALONG THE FRNTL BNDRY AND MOVE
INTO THE NRN WTRS AND ALL THE MDLS AGREE WITH THIS SOLN.HGH PRES
1029 MB W OF THE SRN WTRS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE AS IT MAINATIANS A
RIDGE ACRS THE SRN AND CNTRL WTRS. THE HGH WILL DISPT BUT ITS
SECONADRY CNTR FARTHER W WILL STRENGTHEN AND STILL MAINTAIN A
RIDGE ACRS THE SRN WTRS. THIS HGH PRE CNTR WILL MVE SLIGHTLY SE
AND START TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A STRNG CLD FRNT TO MOVE INTO THE NRN
WTRS. THE MDLS ARE IN SOME AGRMNT FOR THIS SENARIO WITH JUST MNR DIFFS
MAINLY IN THE VALUE OF THE CNTRL PRES. OTHERWISE MDLS ARE
GENERALLY IN AGRMNT ON THE FEW SYNOP FETAURES THAT WILL AFEECT THE
REGION AND SO WILL USE GFS FOR THIS UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT HAS REACHED SRN CA AND BEHIND IT BRIEF SURGE OF N TO
NW WINDS IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN COAST. BUOYS 46069 AND 46054
ARE GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT. ELEVATED PTGC1 REPORTED 33 G 38 KT LAST
HR. GALES SHUD EXTEND JUST FAR ENOUGH W INTO PZZ840 WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN GLW AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MDLS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVING E ALONG NRN
PERIPHERY OF WA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS TO
25 OR 30 KT. 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET WERE THEN CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR PREVIOUS 00Z RUNS WHICH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WHEN
COMPARED TO YSTRDAYS RUNS WITH UPPER SHRTWV APPROACHING PZ5
WATERS LATE WED AND WED NGT. WITH BOTH ABOVE MDLS INDICATING 30+
KT SFC WINDS OVER S QUAD OF DVLPG SFC LOW AND FACT THAT THESE
SFC WINDS ARE USUALLY UNDERDONE PLAN TO ADD GALES TO OUTER
WATERS N OF CAPE LOOKOUT WED NGT INTO THU WITH MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. WILL BLEND SOME OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 12Z GFS 30M WINDS
WED THRU THU. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHUD THEN DROP SE THRU
PZ6 WATERS THU INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN NW WINDS OFF
CNTRL AND S CA FRI INTO SAT.

12Z MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OFFSHORE WATERS SAT INTO SUN. 12Z GFS
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT WITH STRENGTH OF PRE FRONTAL WINDS. 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN
GALES AHEAD OF FRONT N OF PT ST GEORGE SAT TO KEEP CONTINUITY
ALTHO HAVE BELOW AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT SHUD STALL OFF N
CA SAT NGT. 12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET ARE THEN MORE EMPHATIC AND
STRONGER IN DVLPG ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG FRONT AND MOVING INTO
PZ5 WATERS SUN. WILL BLEND 12Z GFS WITH WEAKER 12Z ECMWF TO TONE
DOWN THESE WINDS SOMEWHAT SUN.

12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAVE MDL ARE GENERALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUMPED UP SIG WV
HGTS SLIGHLY OFF S CA DURING GALE EVENT TNGT INTO WED. OTHERWISE
SIG WV HGT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MWW3.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.