Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 260210
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
710 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING
PACKAGE.

SEAS...WWIII ENP ABOUT 1 FT UNDERDONE OVER THE NW WATERS. MADE
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE WAVE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE...WAVE GRIDS LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST SFC OBS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z SHOWS WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WA/OR AND
NRN CA WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MAX SEAS AS
INDICATED BY RECENT OBS ARE 10-11 FT OVR WRN WA WATERS. BUOY
46005 RPT 10 FT AT 19Z. THE CURRENT UPR LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWRD INTO THE WA/OR WATERS WHILE
AN ARE OF TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE SRN MIM AREA EXTENDING INTO
THE CENTRAL CA WATERS. ON DAYS 2-5 A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG SE
FROM ALASKA AND ROTATE INTO WRN CANADA OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS S/WV
ENERGY WILL DIG SE FORM ALASKA...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A CLOSED
UPR LOW ALONG THE WRN CANADA CST...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE WA
WATERS. THE OVERALL SFC PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK AS WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NRLY WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE WA/OR WATERS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE HIGH PRES
CENTER THAT HAS PERSISTED W OF THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
FURTHER W...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT. LATER IN THE WEEK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD EWRD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CA WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HIGH PRES AND INLAND CALIFORNIA TROF WILL INCREASE THE
GRADIENT OVER THE PREFERRED AREAS FROM PT CONCEPTION TO PT
REYES...WITH MAX WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL ZONES. FOR
THE MOST PART THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. GIVEN
HOW WEAK THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE A SIG ISSUE.
WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR CONTINUITY AS THE ORV FCST AND POP THE WIND
GRIDS WITH THE GFS THROUGH 12Z SUN...THEN TRANSITION TO THE ECMWF
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM WERE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL ACROS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. FURTHER W OVR THE MIM AREA THE ENP IS RUNNING
TOO HIGH...WHEREAS THE WAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT OBS.
FOR THAT REASON WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE WAM TRHOUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THEN TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN FINISH BY POP WITH THE USING THE
WAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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