Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 041827
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 12Z THU DEC 08 2016 - 12Z MON DEC 12 2016

...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR THE INTERIOR/SOUTH
CENTRAL REGION AND THE PANHANDLE...


ENSEMBLES MOSTLY HAVE A HANDLE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO STAY CLOSER TO NW ALASKA THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, HELPING TO ENSURE THAT THE SYSTEM OFF OF
HAIDA GWAII THU/FRI REMAINS AT OR BELOW 50N. THIS WOULD DECREASE
THE THREAT FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW IN FROM THE EAST THANKS TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN NW CANADA. A COUPLE OTHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS NEAR THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DURING THE PERIOD BUT
SPLITTING UPPER PATTERN JUST OFF KAMCHATKA SUPPORTS TAKING THESE
SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT OVERALL. BY NEXT
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, SFC LOW MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF PER THE ENSEMBLES -- THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES SHOWED THIS BEST AS THE GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/LESS DEFINED AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM
BACK BY THE ALEUTIANS, BUT STILL AT LEAST SHOW LOW PRESSURE HEADED
TOWARD THE GULF AROUND NEXT MONDAY. KEPT THE INTERIOR QUITE COLD
VIA THE STABLE AIRMASS (-30S/-40S) WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT HARD TO TELL WHEN THE INVERSION MAY BREAK. 2M TEMP
MIN/MAX BLENDS WERE STILL COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE ALONG THE
COAST/PANHANDLE (BACKED OFF ON THOSE NUMBERS) BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH
IN THE INTERIOR.


FRACASSO

$$




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