Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 232004
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

VALID 12Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 12Z FRI MAR 31 2017

THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD START OFF
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A
WEAKER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  RIDGING IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SIBERIA.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
ALASKA DOMAIN, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES.  THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THIS LOW DROPPING WELL INTO THE 960S, AND THE WPC
FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE LOW WAS INCREASED FROM THE HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS USED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CMC MEAN WAS NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS/EC
MEANS AND WAS NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE
GFS PRESSURE APPEARED REASONABLE, IT WAS FASTER WITH ITS
PROGRESSION AND THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
TERMS OF PLACEMENT.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIANS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE
PANHANDLE REGION.  THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY REACHES THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST
AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  EXPECT A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE REMAINING QUITE COLD.

HAMRICK

$$





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