Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280900
SWOD48
SPC AC 280859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT EACH DAY BETWEEN D4-7/TUE-FRI
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN STATES...BUT WITH VERY LOW
MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY. ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK
SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INITIALLY OVER NW MEXICO. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS IMPULSE E ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING A CONSISTENT OUTLIER IN DEPICTING
MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION NEAR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND D5-6. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED IN THE NRN STREAM REACHING
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND D5. THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENTERING THE WEST
AROUND D6 BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT IN GUIDANCE LATE WEEK. HOWEVER ON
THE BROADER-SCALE...THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE FORMATION OF AN
INTENSE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER JET BISECTING THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IS LOW...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR INDICATING
CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS OVERSPREADING THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
MODERATELY MOIST WARM SECTOR WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE IN THIS PATH. IF/WHEN MODEL CONSISTENCY
INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AOA 15 PERCENT WILL LIKELY
BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 03/28/2015


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