Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 061000
SWOD48
SPC AC 060959

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2016

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING A BROAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS
5-8/.  ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN POLEWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST REGION ON DAY 6/SUNDAY...THE TRACK OF MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION.  THE
LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF A SEVERE-WEATHER RISK AREA.
THE OTHER DAYS SHOULD HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION INLAND.

..PETERS.. 12/06/2016



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