Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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825
ACUS48 KWNS 100958
SWOD48
SPC AC 100957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND MOVE THIS FEATURE
GRADUALLY EWD ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE NWRN STATES. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5 AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS. DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX. A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLY ON MONDAY/DAY 6 ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK BUT
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN DEPENDING UPON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LOW
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NC ON TUESDAY/DAY 7 WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY 8.

..BROYLES.. 02/10/2016



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