Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 271917
SWODY1
SPC AC 271915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL AND COASTAL SC/GA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND COASTAL
AREAS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

...FL PENINSULA...
AREAS OF STORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE E COAST WITHIN A WLY FLOW
REGIME...AND SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF PERHAPS SMALL
HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE W COAST WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS DUE TO OUTFLOW. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.

...COASTAL SC AND GA...
ELONGATED STORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. RADAR ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW MOVING RAPIDLY SWD INTO NERN SC WITH COLD/STABLE AIR
BEHIND. THUS...A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME REMAINS FOR LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL.. 03/27/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

...FL/GA/SC...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS ANALYZED OVER SC...WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND COASTAL
GA/SC...WITH SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO PROVIDE MODEST
DIURNAL AFTERNOON HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION MAY ROTATE WITH
A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS MARGINAL.




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