Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 311247
SWODY1
SPC AC 311245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS DAMPENED DUE TO THE NEWD
PROGRESSION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE MT-ND
BORDER TO JAMES BAY.  ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING NEWD INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

...ERN CAROLINAS TODAY...

THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  DEEP-LAYER GRADIENT FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
THUS...WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW...THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMERGING
FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INVOF A WEAK LEE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 08/31/2015



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