Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 031959
SWODY1
SPC AC 031957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH GA/NORTH FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD TO
THE EAST COAST OF FL...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.

...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THE SLIGHT AND
MARGINAL RISK AREAS.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITHIN THE RESPECTIVE SEVERE RISK
AREAS.

...TX PANHANDLE...
A SMALL PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ADDED INTO THE EXISTING
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA.

...LOWER MI...INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN IL...
LATEST GUIDANCE AND SOUTHWARD TRACK/TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONTARIO SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MI...MUCH OF INDIANA...AND
SOUTHERN IL.  THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA IN THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

..PETERS.. 05/03/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016/

...PARTS OF VA/CAROLINAS TO GA/N FL THROUGH LATE EVENING...
ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NC COAST...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD BREAKS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION
FROM CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S FROM SE VA ACROSS NC...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FARTHER SW INTO SC/GA.  THE LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CLEAR ERN NC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING REMOVES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY
500 J/KG IN CENTRAL VA AND 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN NC TO SC/GA.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM/DESTABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO FORM
FARTHER S ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S GA INTO SC.  MIDLEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE
ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
OH/MS VALLEY REGION.  THE EXPECTED MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

...E CENTRAL/SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINTAINED AOA 70 F.  A WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE E COAST SEA
BREEZE...WHERE ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

$$



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