Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 181717
SWODY2
SPC AC 181716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TX COAST AND LA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST/WRN LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN LA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEAR VICTORIA NEWD TO NEAR
BEAUMONT. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY MOVE THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY EWD
WITH TIME WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
VICTORIA AND BEAUMONT AT 18Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 65 KT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. IN SPITE OF POOR LAPSE RATES...THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY ALONG THE COASTS OF TX AND LA
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT BRIEF.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2014



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