Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 221722
SWODY2
SPC AC 221721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM OVER THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SWRN STATES.


...ERN OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ZONE OF MODEST ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORNING
CONVECTION TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE.

...PACIFIC NW...

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

...SRN FL...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER DEEP S FL IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONT.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2014




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