Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 271656
SWODY2
SPC AC 271655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN U.S. TO THE WRN ATLANTIC
WITH SECONDARY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL RESULT IN STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT STRONG
LIFT WITH THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS.

...ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER ERN MT...THEN INTO WRN ND BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL
BE LOW AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE CELLULAR INITIALLY WITH SUB-SEVERE HAIL. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GIVEN A STRONG
FRONT. THE NAM MODEL LOOKS TOO ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LEVELS COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...THUS LOW WIND
PROBS WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 03/27/2015




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