Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS02 KWNS 250556
SWODY2
SPC AC 250555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SD AND NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD WWD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...MAINTAINING MODERATE WLY FLOW FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED S OF THE OH VALLEY PRIOR TO FRONTOLYSIS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BEFORE STALLING EARLY WED MORNING.

...BLACK HILLS AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL NEB...
A BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY TUE MORNING...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED DETAILS REGARDING POSITION AND LONGEVITY INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MORE PROBABLE IS THAT STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SD INTO WRN NEB...ALONG THE FRINGE OF
RICHER MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED IN
DEPICTING A FAVORABLY TIMED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTM INITIATION OVER THE BLACK HILLS
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME. 20-30 KT OF WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...WITH EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO A SEWD PROPAGATING CLUSTER INTO NRN/WRN NEB
ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ERN EXTENT OF SVR THREAT /INCLUDING
ERN NEB AND ERN SD/ IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO MAINTENANCE OF
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND THE EFFECT ON DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...BUT THIS AREA IS IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER MOISTURE
/MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ NEAR AND W OF THE MID-MO VALLEY.

..ROGERS.. 07/25/2016

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.