Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
ACUS02 KWNS 121646
SWODY2
SPC AC 121645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN THEIR
WAKE...A GENERAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING TOWARD THE CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS
REGIME...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS NOW
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE AIDED BY COUPLED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE
SEPARATION...AND LIGHTNING...NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABSAROKA AND
BIG HORN RANGES OF MONTANA/WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM
AREA.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.