Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 190540
SPC AC 190538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


The potential for thunderstorms appears low across the United States

A strong shortwave trough is expected to migrate from the western
Great Basin east-southeastward through the Four Corners
 on Saturday. A lightning strike or two is possible across the Four
Corners region as mid-level temperatures cool in response to the
progression of the shortwave trough.

Strong southwesterly flow aloft accompanying the system will spread
across the Southwest states early in the period, extending through
the southern High Plains into the central Plains/middle MO valley by
the end of the period. This increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
favor lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains, contributing
to strengthening southwesterly surface winds and continued airmass
modification across the southern and central Plains. By Saturday
afternoon, mid 50s dewpoints will likely exist from the TX Coastal
Plain northward/northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. However, the lack
of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm temperatures aloft will
preclude deep convection and lightning production.

..Mosier.. 01/19/2018

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