Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 230640
SPC AC 230640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


The risk of severe thunderstorms across the U.S., Friday through
Friday night, currently appears negligible.

Cyclonic mid-level flow appears likely linger across much of the
Northeast, upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Coast region, as far
south as the southern Appalachians, through this period.  However,
models indicate that the significant upstream short wave trough,
progressing into the Canadian prairies by early Friday, will pivot
northeastward into the Northwest Territories.  As it does, the
stronger mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to retreat north of
the western and central Canadian/U.S. border, while subtropical
ridging begins to build northward through the Southwest, and
southern portions of the Great Basin, Rockies and Plains.  This will
occur on the western end of an elongated subtropical ridge axis
extending east southeastward into the Caribbean and Bahamas.  Within
and beneath this ridging, it still appears possible that a
significant tropical cyclone may migrate at least into the vicinity
of the western Gulf coast.  Guidance suggests it is possible that it
could track inland, anywhere from south of the Rio Grande river
through mid to upper Texas coastal areas, Friday through Friday

Currently, it appears that any appreciable severe weather potential
during this period may hinge on developments associated with the
tropical system near the Texas coast.  This would mostly seem to be
in the form of some increasing tornado potential, but the extent of
this will depend on many factors, which are generally characterized
by low predictability/probability, particularly at this extended
time frame.

..Kerr.. 08/23/2017

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