Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 250655
SWODY3
SPC AC 250654

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday.

...Middle/Lower MS Valleys...
The shortwave trough that will affect the southern Plains on Sunday
will progress eastward into the MS Valley on Monday.  Models are in
good agreement that the primary surface low will be over northwest
AR on Monday morning, and will track into southern IL by evening.
Thunderstorms will likely intensify during the afternoon in the warm
sector over AR and spread northeastward into parts of KY/TN/MS
through the evening.  Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep
lapse rates and strong winds aloft.  This will support a risk of
hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells.  Thunderstorms
will spread into the TN/OH Valleys after dark, but weaker
instability and uncertainty regarding the weakening of wind fields
in this area lower confidence in a continued severe threat.

..Hart.. 03/25/2017

$$


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