Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 170711
SWODY3
SPC AC 170710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED INVOF NRN FL SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE EWD OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. UPSTREAM IN THE SRN STREAM...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN IN THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE DURING D2 PERSISTS INTO D3.
HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK MAY LINGER BEYOND 12Z/SAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST.
ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ON SAT
MORNING /MAGNITUDE OF WHICH VARIES GREATLY AMONG GUIDANCE/...FLOW
SHOULD BECOME VEERED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME. THIS INFERS THAT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH RELATIVE TO LATE D2.

...TRANS-PECOS/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF W TX...
A BELT OF MODERATE MID/HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE /CONSISTING OF MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ SHOULD AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COMBINATION OF LAPSE
RATES/SHEAR/BUOYANCY MAY AID IN A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS...BUT
NOT SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 04/17/2014




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