Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021549
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 02/1500 UTC...HURRICANE ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N
122.9W...OR ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM...WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM SE AND WITHIN 120 NM
NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING
COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY WED AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

AT 02/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS WAS NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR 13.1N 104.6W...OR ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM...SSW OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CURRENTLY
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER
AND SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER. BLANCA IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE IN JUST A FEW HOURS AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY THU. LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN BLANCA SHOULD
BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY NW IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE N. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97-105W ON THU...THEN SPREAD N THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
FRI...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 06N BETWEEN 84-85W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIONES ARE STILL
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM E AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM W
OF WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
LIKELY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE ANDRES FROM 10N128W
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N132W TO
07N140W.

A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGES ARE STILL
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. H SW ACROSS THE  PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA TO A BASE
NEAR 00N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING N OF 03N WITHIN 90 NM OF  COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND WITHIN 180 NM
OF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 86W AND 89W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N88W...WITHIN
AREA FROM 01-14N BETWEEN 94-100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 12N116W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO A BASE NEAR 24N138W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDS S ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
ANOTHER NEAR 13N110W. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 24N WHILE
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONES AND OTHER AREAS OF
TROPICAL CONVECTION IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 94-
122W AND WELL AS ADVECTED N AND E ACROSS MEXICO S OF A LINE FROM
25N108W TO 21N91W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR
05N87W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND S AMERICA AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON WED WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 6 FT.

$$
NELSON


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