Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191510
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1424 UTC Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
across southern Mexico is expected to relax today, and gap winds
will gradually diminish below gale force by this afternoon. A
plume of NE swell associated with the strong winds in the area
the past few days will propagate well away from Tehuantepec, and
mix with open ocean long period NW swell. Max seas this morning
will remain around 12-14 ft near strongest winds, then gradually
subside through the weekend. No new gale force wind events are
likely until early Tue.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N104W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N104W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 91W and
102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 30 nm N of ITCZ between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 119W
and 125W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 08N to 11N between 125W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for information about
the gale warning today in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gulf of California: Winds will increase to fresh to strong
behind a cold front in the northern gulf tonight. The front will
gradually become ill defined on Sat as it moves southward with
winds diminishing to moderate to fresh. The pressure gradient
will begin to tighten across the area Sun, leading to fresh to
strong winds across the entire gulf Sunday evening and night.

Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, large NW swell
continues to propagate SE across the area, with seas of 8-13 ft
prevailing. This large swell is producing high surf along coasts
and outer reefs of Baja California and mainland Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong tonight. Elsewhere
N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will prevail. Gentle
southerly winds will prevail S of 09N for the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the
forecast waters. Seas 12 ft or greater prevail over much of the
forecast waters north of 25N, currently peaking near 14 ft. Seas
8 ft or greater cover the open waters west of 110W. Fresh to
strong trades will prevail north of the ITCZ to around 20N for
the next several days.

$$
AL



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