Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W OR ABOUT 260
MILES S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC SEP 16. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR
310 DEG AT 10 KT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
POLO TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 40 KT
WITH GUSTS 50 KT...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A
HURRICANE ON THU. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N99W TO 08.5N103W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE REACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS ALREADY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 113.5W AT 2100 UTC SEP
16 OR ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES
S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. ODILE IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 06 KT...AND ODILE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK INTO THIS EVENING...THEN TURN MORE N-NE
AND SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45
KT GUSTS 55 KT AND ODILE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH WHILE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS...THEN OF COURSE
RAPID WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER NW MEXICO LATE
WED. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
RAINFALL OF 9 INCHES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE ARIZONA... SW
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR W TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LARGE SWELLS FROM
ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN
CROSSING THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT
09N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 14N104W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO. THE
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W POLO NEAR 14N104W AND CONTINUES SW TO
10N126W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 12N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE
N OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...IN A CLUSTER WITHIN 90 NM OF
13N107W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 12N111W
TO 11.5N118W AND FROM 10N123W TO 09N120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N128W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 13N119W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND
21N140W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 26N140W. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS AT 20-25 KT TO THE N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT
WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. MIXED NW AND S SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS
OF 8-9 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W ON WED AND THU WITH SEAS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON THU.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA E OF 105W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO THROUGH
THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$
NELSON


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