Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 300923

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N102W to 07N124W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 91W
and 102W.



Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue west of the Baja
Peninsula through Thursday from the pressure gradient between
high pressure to the west and surface troughs in Baja California
and mainland Mexico. Expect stronger NW winds off the coast of
southern California, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft in
NW swell north of 29N between 120W and 126W by this afternoon,
spreading southward to near 28N Wednesday afternoon.

Mainly light to gentle southeast to south winds are expected
over the Gulf of California today, then increase to gentle to
moderate winds tonight and Wednesday. Seas will be 1 to 2 ft,
except 3 to 4 ft over the entrance to the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere, a broad low centered near 13N100W will slowly drift
northward through Wednesday in a moist environment. Expect
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms to persist along and
just offshore the coast of southeastern Mexico the next few
days. Heavy rain and localized flooding may be possible over the
coastal sections of Mexico this week. Gradual development of the
low is possible as well during the next 3-5 days. Otherwise,
mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail
over the Mexican offshore waters south of Baja California.


Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will
continue to support for scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong
gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly moderate
south to southwest winds are expected south of the trough axis
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.


High pressure covers the area north of 16N and west of 117W. The
associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to the
south in the deep tropics is supporting fresh northeast trades
from 07N to 15N west of 133W, with seas of 7 to 8 ft in mixed NE
and SE swell. This area will gradually shrink through Wednesday
as the ridge retreats westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will continue over the remainder of the northwestern waters
through Wednesday with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh northwest winds are
forecast to develop north of 27N and east of 125W tonight as the
pressure gradient between low pressure deepening inland over the
SW United States and high pressure over the northwest and
north/central waters tightens. These winds will support 7 to 9
ft seas over that area through Wednesday night.

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