Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave has entered the far
eastern portion of the area, with its axis near 80W north of
05N. It is moving west at 10-15 kt. Night time enhanced infra-
red satellite imagery faintly reveals some cyclonic turning of
low clouds just to the south of the Gulf of Panama. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm
east and 120 nm west of the axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 11N95W to 12N105W
to 13N113W to low pressure near 11N122W 1008 mb to 07N126W. ITCZ
axis extends from 07N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the axis west
of 136W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm s of the
axis between 92W and 96W, and south of the axis within 30 nm of
a line from 07N104W to 08N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

High pressure centered N of the area extends a ridge
southeastward to 32N133W to 25N127W to near 20N120W. High
pressure covers the area north of 15N and west of 115W. A weak
low of 1009 mb is analyzed near 10N122W. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted mainly within 120
nm east semicircle of low. Global model guidance continues to
keep the low in the same general area through Sunday morning
with some development before it begins to lift in a north to
northeasterly direction through Monday. Strong south to
southwest winds are expected to to the southeast of the low from
10N to 12N between 117W and 120W on Sunday with seas building to
10 feet. A tight pressure gradient between the low and the ridge
over the northern and central waters should allow for strong
northeast winds to develop in the northwest quadrant of the low
on Sunday with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The low is forecast to weaken
late Sunday night and Monday with associated winds decreasing to
20 kt and seas of 8 ft in south to southwest swell mixed with a
secondary swell component from the north over an area roughly
south of 16N between 114W and 127W. The aforementioned high
pressure north of the area is forecast to weaken as it slides
eastward during the 48 hours.

East of 125W...satellite water vapor imagery shows plentiful
deep atmospheric moisture present underneath a mid-level ridge
roughly along 14N. The southern portion of an upper level trough
that stretches from central Baja California to near 12N126W is
providing lift for the deep moisture. This has resulted in the
development of clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection near and south of the monsoon trough segment between
105W and 111W. The trough is forecast to shift east of the area
Sunday. Ascat data from this afternoon depicted an area of fresh
northeast winds west of 136W between 09N-12N, and moderate
trades N of the convergence zone west of 125W. Mainly gentle
winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Elsewhere, near gale
force N-NW winds along the California coast have produced an
area of 7-8 ft N swell in the north/central waters between 123W
and 129W. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will affect the area south
of the equator between 104W and 120W. The swell is forecast to
merge with the area of elevated sea heights associated with the
low near 10N122W to produce a fairly large area of 6-8 ft seas
in south-central waters by late Sunday. Mostly benign marine
conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder of the
forecast area through Tuesday.

$$
Aguirre


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