996
FNUS73 KAPX 150733
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Tuttle West...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies expected by ignition time at the
burn site with temperatures topping out in the mid-60s...limited
to some degree by northeast winds off of Lake Huron. Those winds
may occasional gust as high as 17-22 mph today before turning light
and variable tonight. Minimum RHs at the site should have enough Lake
Huron influence to not fall farther than 35-40 percent. Good RH
recovery expected tonight as temperatures fall back into the 40s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........37 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 9 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....Northeast 18 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-2600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good (310.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   2   2   2   1   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  58  61  62  62  64  62
RH..............59  51  46  43  40  37  38
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 ft wind gust.20  21  21  21  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  18  20  18  18
Vrate kt-ft.....310 345 363 413 480 472 478
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........93 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (35.0-422.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   2   2   4   5   9   7   7   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  60  57  54  52  49  47  46  45  44  43  43
RH..............39  42  47  52  56  63  68  71  73  76  79  82
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.18  18  18  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.17  15  12  9   9   9   9   9   9   10  9   10
Vrate kt-ft.....422 287 75  43  41  38  35  37  37  44  38  45
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........46 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east
                    around 8 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 1800-2500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (34.0-226.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      15     24     30     33     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     46     56     61     64     64
RH..............92     83     62     53     46     48
20 ft wind dir..NE     NE     NE     E      E      E
20 ft wind spd..6      6      6      8      8      8
20 ft wind gust.7      7      8                    9
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1200   2200   2500   2200
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..NE 8   NE 8   E 7    E 8    E 9    E 9
Vrate kt-ft.....34     41     83     180    226    203
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414219.0/APX
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov