417
FXUS62 KCAE 170726
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
326 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon as a weak system begins to slowly cross the region
with shower and thunderstorm chances likely lingering into
Sunday. A cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and
Tuesday with temperatures rebounding during the middle of next
week as another ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridging currently over the area will continue moving
eastward as the next system moves through the Gulf States.
Through daybreak winds will remain light and variable with
cirrus clouds moving in from the west. Expect some patchy fog to
develop mainly in fog prone locations and near area lakes and
rivers. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

Change will begin this morning as winds turn south to
southwesterly. Although speeds will be less than 10 mph this
will begin advecting Gulf moisture into the area. By early
afternoon pwats will have crossed 1.5 inches and 1.8 inches by
early evening. Although this system is lacking a strong trigger
mechanism and mid level lapse rates will be around 5.0 C/Km
there is potential for strong heating should the cirrus be
thinner than expected. Current satellite imagery shows an
extensive cirrus deck over the western and central Gulf Coast
however much of this is due to a weakening MCS. Even with the
MCS cloudiness dissipating as it weakens expect the increasing
and lowering clouds through the day to limit heating and keep
the best chance of thunderstorms across the southern Midlands
and CSRA. SPC outlook has the area in general thunder with a
slight risk over the central Gulf Coast and should this area
become active it is possible for some to push into the CSRA
during the evening into early overnight hours. Overall agree
with the SPC outlook while there is potential across the
forecast area it is limited. Moisture and isentropic ascent
also increase through the evening into the overnight hours and
with pwat values increasing to 2 inches or better at times there
is potential for some locally heavy rainfall. Flow aloft will
be 40 to 50 knots so do not expect any hydro related issues attm
however will continue to monitor. High temperatures this
afternoon will range from the low 80s in the western Midlands
and northern CSRA to the mid 80s elsewhere. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday`s forecast is at least interesting, but skepticism
regarding overall severe threat is fairly high. While ensemble
guidance is fairly bullish with probability for some instability
& shear across the southern FA, clouds are expected to be
widespread and with at least some rain remaining across the
area, it is uncertain whether we`ll be able to destabilize
enough or not. Synoptic forcing looks good, but there is not a
strong, definite low-level forcing mechanism that would focus
convection. CSU probabilities are elevated across the southern
FA and that is definitely the spot if we have severe convection
Saturday. Highs on Saturday are very dependent on cloud cover,
but should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the
FA. Some shower activity will probably hang around thru the
overnight hours, with lows falling into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continue to expect showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon
as the upper level trough swings overhead. The cool mid-level
temps could actually yield a favorable environment for strong
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so we will need to keep an
eye on model trends over the next couple of days. There after,
cooler air pushes in on Monday and maybe Tuesday as surface high
pressure ridges into the region. Some indication of weak wedge
conditions setting up on Monday but it is so climatologically
unfavored this time of year that we will need more model
guidance to actually delineate whether or not that happens.
Ridging is expected to push over head through the remainder of
the period, with seasonally low chances for rainfall and above
normal temps by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Thin cirrus have begun to overspread the region and will
gradually become thicker through daybreak. Main question remains
will the cirrus be thick enough to limit fog and stratus
development. Although there is currently a 20 knots LLJ shown on
CAE WSR-88D and cirrus moving in satellite imagery also show
some patchy fog developing around AGS. As such have remained
with TEMPO MVFR at AGS/OGB during the early morning and sunrise
hours. Fog and restrictions will mix out quickly with sunrise.
With winds turning S to SW Gulf moisture will be moving into the
area with clouds lowering and thickening as well. Expect showers
to move into AGS/DNL around 23z and spread into the other
terminals by 17/01z with MVFR cigs and vsbys through the end of
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms continuing through
Sunday night.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$