117
FXUS62 KCAE 160018
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
818 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this evening. Upper
ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions
on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorms chances increase again
Friday and especially on Saturday with unsettled weather
lingering into early next week. Ridging builds in during the
middle of next week resulting in decreasing rain chances and a
gradual increase in temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection will diminish through the evening with loss of
heating and a shortwave moving east. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible along remnant outflow boundary
collisions. We`ll be on the backside of the trough axis after
midnight, with subsidence really taking care of any remaining
showers by that point. The weak surface front across NC
currently will shift southward and through the area by early
Thursday morning, with cooler and drier air pushing in
thereafter. Some model guidance continues to hint at low-clouds
later tonight, especially across the northeastern FA, but
confidence is low. So lows will likely be in the upper 50s and
low 60s given mostly clear skies after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday Night: Drier weather will return back into
the area as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Should see
much more sunshine through the day as a west-northwesterly wind
pattern brings some downsloping across the cwa. This should also
have the affect of bringing temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s for afternoon highs. Overnight lows will be mild in the
low to mid 60s.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge begins to move east
through the day in response to an upper level low moving out of
the Southern Plains. Moisture will once again be on the
increase, so even though the day will start off dry, the region
should see the development of isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Better rainfall chances
should occur Friday night as the deeper trough moves towards the
region. Temperatures for the afternoon will reach the low to mid
80s. With the expected increase in clouds, overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some uncertainty exists Saturday due to timing differences with
the models. Even if there are some timing issues, at some point
Saturday there should be numerous showers and/or thunderstorms
across the entire cwa. NBM shows likely to categorical pops for
much of the day, and will not really stray much from those
numbers. Sunday will see the upper low eventually moving through
and east of the cwa, and should see some shower activity early
in the day before some drying becomes possible during the
afternoon and evening. Behind the low, drier air returns and
will bring dry conditions then from Sunday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures next week rise back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period.

SCT -SHRA may still move through the terminals over the next few
hours, but conditions should remain VFR. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 4k
ft MSL gradually clearing to SKC by Thursday morning. A low-
level jet is expected to mitigate any fog concerns. Some
guidance indicates stratus by tomorrow morning, but confidence
is low that MVFR CIGs will develop. The remainder of Thursday
looks dry and clear with SFC winds WLY/NWLY 4-8 kts through the
valid period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$