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000
FNUS28 KWNS 122025
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

A potent upper-level low will continue to move eastward out of the
Great Basin into the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
A deep lee cyclone is expected to form Monday afternoon along the
CO/KS border. The shortwave trough will lift into the Midwest/Great
Lakes by midweek with the surface low following a similar track.
Fire weather concerns are expected to focus within the southern High
Plains during the extended period.

...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire weather potential will increase as the trough begins
to the eject into the region on Monday. Strong mid-level winds will
overlap with a deepening surface cyclone to the north to produce
areas of 20-30 mph winds along with RH that could fall to near 10%
behind the dryline. Some areas have observed rainfall in the past
few days which has helped reduce fuel receptiveness. Critical
probabilities have been kept lower in those areas.

As the surface low departs, strong westerly winds will remain across
the region on Tuesday. As winds will be on a gradual decrease into
the afternoon, potential for critical fire weather should remain
lower than on Monday. The eastern/northern extent of potential fire
weather concerns will be determined by where and how much
precipitation occurs Monday afternoon/evening.

With the upper-level pattern beginning to become rapidly less
predictable by Wednesday, confidence in potential critical fire
weather is quite low through the remainder of the extended period.
There is a low probability that elevated fire weather continues into
Wednesday across parts of the region. Trends in model guidance will
continue to be monitored.

..Wendt.. 04/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$