000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260838
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
138 AM MST Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of showers and thunderstorms develop later
this afternoon and continue into Saturday. Some areas of snow are
also possible at times over the higher terrain. Warmer and drier
weather returns to kick off next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through this morning...With clearing skies and
remnant moisture from yesterday`s rain, some patchy fog and low
clouds have developed over the higher terrain this morning. The
fog should remain through the overnight, before burning off
shortly after daybreak.

This afternoon through Saturday...The next wave of precipitation
looks to develop late this afternoon and evening as a secondary
trough moves into Arizona. With better upper-level dynamics and
deeper moisture, more widespread activity is expected this time
around. Latest hi-res guidance shows an initial wave of steadier
moving through this evening into the overnight with the front, and
then scattered showers thereafter into Saturday.

Much colder temperatures aloft are also expected with the system,
initially starting out around -2C to +2C at 700 mb, then falling
behind the front to around -4C by Saturday morning. As a result,
snow levels should be above 7500-8000 feet initially, but then fall
to near 6500 feet overnight. Marginal surface temperatures may keep
accumulations light, but any heavier precipitation will be able to
overcome leading to some quick, but short-lived, accumulations above
6500 feet. Even as snow levels rise some during the afternoon on
Saturday, the potential for accumulating snow/graupel remains a
possibility.

Overall precipitation through Saturday night looks to be decent,
with upwards of a half-inch to locally an inch of liquid over the
higher terrain. However, through the lower elevations and more
rain shadowed areas, amounts drop off to under a few hundredths
and possibly up to a quarter of an inch. For the most part, much
of this precipitation will be liquid, with any meaningful snow
accumulations limited to elevations above 8000 feet. Any snow
accumulations down to 6500 feet should largely be around an inch
or two at best.

Additionally, steepening lapse rates with the colder air mass aloft
will lead to some weak instability (around 200-600 J/Kg). Thus, a
few more vigorous showers and liekly some thunderstorms will be
possible, especially this evening and Saturday afternoon with added
insatiability from daytime heating.

Outside of the precipitation, gusty southwest winds are also
expected, mainly areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A
Wind Advisory remains for these areas, where winds in excess of
40-45 mph are possible.

Sunday through Thursday...In the wake of the trough, heights begin
to rise as high pressure tries to gradually builds back into
Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions return as a result, with
afternoon high temperatures rising to around 10 deg F above normal
by the middle of next week. Lighter, more typical afternoon
breezes are also expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 26/06Z through Saturday 27/06Z...VFR conditions
expected overnight with generally lighter winds, becoming SW
again as leftover outflows from earlier dissipate. Winds will
increase after sunrise Friday, gusting 20-40kts. As winds increase
showers will develop along higher terrain, impacting sites like
KFLG. By late morning, more widely scattered showers and storms
will start to develop and move eastward. Embedded thunderstorms
with small hail and graupel are expected during the afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage will decrease late in the period, but
showers will persist with higher elevation areas having rain turn
over to snow. Outside of sub-VFR conditions with thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon, greatest flight impacts will occur late in the
period as low cigs and snow showers develop.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/06Z through Monday 29/06Z...Widespread MVFR
conditions or lower expected 06Z Saturday through ~16Z Saturday.
After, some clearing and rising cigs expected as precipitation
becomes more limited briefly. Thunderstorms return Saturday
afternoon resulting in isolated pockets of sub-VFR conditions.
Winds W 15-25 kts on Saturday. Winds gusts could reach 30-40 kts.
By Saturday night, precipitation will be ending and widespread
VFR conditions should start to return. VFR conditions will persist
from then on into next work week with lighter winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Look for a good chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms starting this afternoon from
Flagstaff north and west then spreading across much of northern
Arizona overnight into Saturday. Some mountain snow is forecast
above 6500 feet. Expect southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting up to 40
mph on Friday with slightly lighter west winds on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warmer. West to southwest breezes
at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM MST /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009-012>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff