Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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418 FXUS64 KLUB 120728 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 228 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Active weather will continue for today as an upper low tracks to our northwest across the Rockies. Surface southeasterly flow will continue to provide ample Gulf moisture for the development of showers and thunderstorms this morning. Current radar indicates light shower activity over the far southwest TX Panhandle. CAMs indicate an increase in coverage and intensity around 3-4am. Convection will persist mostly area wide through the morning, and although some storms may produce brief heavy downpours and small hail, severe weather is not expected. Things get slighlty more complicated by the afternoon as a dryline develops roughly along the I-27 corridor. There are a number of surface/upper level features interacting with one another and this will factor into the dryline`s exact timing/position. However, generally the most favorable moisture and instability looks to occur off the Caprock and thus showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across that area through this evening. Due in part to increased shear, severe weather cannot be ruled out though is not expected to be widespread. Precipitation may linger as long as into Monday morning over the Childress area south of the aforementioned upper low. With a drier, southerly flow developing west of the dryline in the afternoon, high temperatures west of I-27 will be significantly warmer than yesterday, reaching the low-to-mid 80s. Cooler temperatures will continue off the Caprock where the southeasterly flow persists. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The upper level trough will be moving east of the area on Monday with short wave ridging moving overhead on Tuesday leading to a warm up in temperatures. The next trough to affect the area is currently in the eastern Pacific and will slowly make its way to southern California by early Wednesday. This southern stream trough may bring severe weather to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Upper level winds will back starting early Wednesday in advance of this system as it moves across the southwestern US. Although the larger scale trough will be in Arizona during peak heating on Wednesday and will have a slight positive tilt, models have been depicting a weaker short wave out ahead of the parent trough which may be the main driver of large scale ascent. A roughly 115kt jet will set up from northern Baja California into Far West Texas placing the South Plains in a favorable area for wind divergence aloft. Low level winds will back to the southeast as early as Tuesday beginning to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Stronger moisture will not arrive until Wednesday afternoon. With the larger trough still well to the west of the area, surface cyclogenesis in New Mexico will allow for broad southeasterly low level flow keeping moisture locked up westward into eastern New Mexico. Additionally, analog guidance shows a high probability of severe weather for Wednesday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 150 percent of normal on Wednesday leading to a heavy rain threat. The larger trough will weaken as it moves east on Thursday but still looks to be quite potent with a slight eastward position on the upper level jet. Another day of severe weather will be possible on Thursday but differences in deterministic models lead to a low confidence forecast. A cold front may be moving into the area on Thursday complicating the convective forecast. Temperatures may warm more significantly late next week as stronger upper level ridging builds into northern Mexico. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Low CIGs will continue at all TAF sites though this afternoon. IFR will likely lift at KLBB and KPVW several hours earlier than KCDS which will see lingering showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Confidence in increasing for a brief period of LIFR CIGs and lower VIS at KLBB and KPVW around sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are expected at all sites, starting in a few hours (around 9z) at KLBB and KPVW and around 12z at KCDS. These should end by mid-morning for KLBB and KPVW, but will persist off and on at KCDS into the evening. Brief gusty winds and heavy rain could accompany any storms. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19