Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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430 FXUS64 KOHX 111649 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper level trough and surface low are making their way east through the Great Lakes with a cold front dropping south and west from the low. This front will approach Middle TN this afternoon and may bring a few light showers to eastern areas. It will also bring some cloud cover for the area. Things do look to clear out by the evening. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70s with comfortable dew points. With the drier air mass in place the fog chances look to remain low tonight but still can`t rule out a little bit of patchy fog to the south and east of Nashville mainly near rivers and in valleys. The Space Weather Prediction Center is continuing to predict significant geomagnetic storming through Sunday. With the clear skies tonight that means we may get another shot at seeing the northern lights but only if they can make it this far south. We will see great weather for Mother`s Day as high pressure builds over the area. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 with comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Things will become a bit more unsettled as we head into the work week. A short wave trough will push into the Plains on Monday and that will bring the return of a more humid air mass. As the humidity builds in we will see the return of shower and thunderstorm chances starting Monday. The trough and cold front will work over Middle TN on Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected on Monday and the chances for severe weather look low on Tuesday but still can`t rule out an isolated strong storm with wind and hail being the threat. A few showers will linger into Wednesday afternoon mainly over eastern areas. Short wave ridge will then build in and that will bring dry weather later Wednesday into Thursday. The dry weather doesn`t look to last too long as another trough will push out of the four corners region late week into next week. This will bring the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs will be cooler on Monday in the 70s and will gradually warm back into the 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Patchy fog across the area, with some terminals experiencing reduced visibilities. Conditions should improve and return to VFR over the next hour or so. VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become W/NW and gusty (15 to 20kts) this afternoon, before calming after 00Z and becoming generally SW near the end of the current TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 78 53 82 59 / 10 0 0 30 Clarksville 76 51 80 58 / 0 0 0 40 Crossville 70 46 74 52 / 30 0 0 20 Columbia 78 51 80 58 / 0 0 0 50 Cookeville 72 48 75 55 / 30 0 0 20 Jamestown 70 47 74 52 / 30 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 78 51 79 58 / 10 0 0 50 Murfreesboro 78 48 80 57 / 30 0 0 30 Waverly 78 51 81 59 / 0 0 0 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Adcock