241
FXUS61 KOKX 130536
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
136 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in the area overnight through Monday. A
warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night.
Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week.
Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast mainly on track overnight with dry conditions expected.

An upper trough continues to move offshore as weak upper
ridging continues to build in from the west. Mostly clear sky
conditions are anticipated for overnight.

Low temps tonight will range from near 50 in NYC to the 40s
elsewhere with some localized upper 30s where radiational
cooling is more optimized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Rising heights aloft and sfc high pressure should lead to a
milder day on Mon, with highs reaching the lower 70s in NE NJ
and rising into the 60s elsewhere on a S flow, with sea breeze
enhancement along the coast during the afternoon. A shortwave
trough riding atop the upper ridge associated with a warm front
passing to the north should bring an increase in clouds and may
trigger some late day end evening showers mainly inland,
followed by clearing skies later Mon night. With the area in the
warm sector lows Mon night should range from the upper 40s
across SE CT and parts of eastern Long Island, to the 50s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upr low emerging onto the Plains will traverse the country
and reach the local area by the middle of the week. Height falls
as early as Tue aftn could trigger a few shwrs, particularly
nwrn zones, along with a chc of tstms as well.

As a weak sfc low approaches Tue ngt and passes offshore on
Wed, a more stratiform rain is expected, with the CWA on the nrn
and wrn side of the low. Robust convection to the south could
rob some of the moisture, but blended probs are high for pcpn,
and moisture transport vectors do show at least some deeper
moisture advecting in.

Sly flow will moderate temps on Tue, especially the ern 2/3 of
the cwa, then flow comes around to the NE behind the low on Wed.
Temps lower on Wed with the rain and clouds, then a E-NE flow
remains locked in right thru next weekend. Cooler temps Long
Island and the immediate CT coast. The NBM was used for temps.

There are some model timing differences on Thu with the ECMWF
slower to eject the upr low. The GFS has ridging building in
quickly and a dry day. Stuck with the blended approach and only
have slight chcs in the fcst. Dry on Fri with weak high pres
along the E coast, then the next sys arrives for the weekend.
There remain timing differences, with the GFS continuing to be
the quicker moving sys, similar to the model runs 24 hours ago.
The NBM was followed, with the best chcs remaining on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through the
overnight before pushing offshore on Monday.

Generally VFR. MVFR is possible at KSWF late tonight into early
Monday morning, with IFR possible at KHPN.

Winds remain light S-SW, to locally light and variable through
the overnight with winds becoming southerly and increasing
Monday afternoon. Gusts 15 to 20kt develop during the
afternoon, peaking late in the day. Stronger winds with sea
breeze enhancement likely at KJFK.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts Monday afternoon may be more occasional. Sustained winds
at KJFK may be a few knots higher, especially late in the day.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower
possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near
the coast late.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt
near the coast in the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR
possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas remain under 5 feet on the ocean waters overnight with wind
gusts well below 25 kt. A better chance for more widespread
5-ft seas will come late day Mon into Mon evening as S flow
ramps up to 15-20 kt.

Mrgnl SCA winds and seas also possible on the ocean Tue with
S flow, then 4-8 ft seas on the ocean Wed. Winds on the
protected waters are progged to remain blw SCA lvls attm.

Lingering seas and NE winds close to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu,
and mrgnl winds elsewhere. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Fri and
possibly on Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC/BG/MET/JM
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/BG/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG