288
FXUS61 KOKX 110610
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
210 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure shifts farther out to sea overnight. High pressure
otherwise builds in from New England on Saturday, then another
frontal system tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure briefly returns on Monday before a warm front passes
through Monday night. Another frontal system will then impact
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of 1 mile visibility were added through 8am for interior
areas of the Lower Hudson Valley, Hudson/Passaic NJ counties
and Fairfield County CT. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.

Low pressure offshore to our south will continue to head farther
out to sea overnight, taking an associated inverted trough over
us with it. This will bring an end to rainfall by around
midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud
cover should diminish considerably overnight, perhaps even
becoming clear toward daybreak Saturday. Lows falling into the
low to mid 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain seasonably cool through the weekend as the
region remains entrenched in a H5 trough situated over the
Eastern US. While dry to start, the next shortwave in the flow
swing east, returning rain chances for the second half of the
weekend.

Saturday will be the drier, more pleasant, of the days this
weekend as surface high pressure noses down from New England.
Despite the sunshine early, temperatures remain cooler than
normal in a persistent onshore wind with most areas topping out
in the low to mid 60s on Saturday.

Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and rising rain chances
west of NYC as the weak frontal system approaches. The showers
should run into drier air and ridging as it pushes east, and
much of southern CT and eastern Long Island may remain
predominantly dry during this period. But to the west, showers
likely develop by daybreak Sunday, and may continue intermittently
thru the early afternoon before tapering. Rainfall with this
system appears light, under a quarter inch everywhere.

Slow improvement Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure
begins to return once again, but remaining chilly, with most in
the 50s during the day, and falling into the 40s overnight into
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave ridging builds in aloft on Monday with weak high pressure
at the surface. A frontal system passing across eastern Canada will
then send a warm front through the area Monday night with a low
chance of showers. However, much of Monday into the first half of
Tuesday should be dry with seasonable temperatures on Monday, but
then warming to above normal, by about 3 to 5 degrees on Tuesday.

A southern branch storm system over the Central Plains works
eastward through midweek, being tugged on by a passing northern
stream vortex tracking across eastern Canada. Globals vary a bit on
the interaction and timing of the southern branch system, but
overall there is good agreement. Thus, stayed close to a consensus
forecast. A strengthening southerly flow develops Tuesday into
Tuesday night ahead of the system with increasing chances of rain,
especially at night. A frontal wave develops to the south Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This turns winds around to E/NE with a more
stable airmass and the potential for stratiform rain to the north of
the low track. Any instability is weak with the best chance for any
thunderstorms being Tuesday evening/night. There is the chance for
some decent rainfall though depending on the proximity to the
surface low with a chance of good frontogenetic forcing just north
of the low track. It is much too early to be specific with rainfall
amounts, but the potential is there for an inch or more. System is
also fairly progressive, limiting the flood threat. As for
temperatures, Wednesday cools down a bit, but then Thursday and
Friday are back to readings a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure initially will give way to an approaching weak
frontal system Saturday night into early Sunday.

Outside of some localized IFR to sub-IFR conditions before 12Z
Saturday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Winds will be near 5 kts or less overnight into early Saturday with
variable direction. Winds then become more east Saturday morning
with more southeast winds developing Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. Wind speeds will be generally near 5-10 kts.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of any MVFR before 12Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Sat night: Chance MVFR and showers late at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW wind gusts
15-20 kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA advisory over the ocean has been cancelled as waves are now
below 5 feet.

A moderate southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid week frontal
system could bring winds and seas on the ocean close to SCA
conditions late Monday into Tuesday. An easterly flow develops north
of a frontal wave on Wednesday with the potential for seas building
further.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding continues tonight, but coverage will be
less than last night. Maintained coastal flood advisories for
the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern
Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester.
Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of
Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements
for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones.
Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk,
NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been
discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer
expected to meet minor benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could
be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise
this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come
to an end later in the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/BR/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...