Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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865 FXUS64 KSJT 162345 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 645 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 419 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...Severe weather is possible through the remainder of this afternoon into early tonight... A consolidated Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of our area except the northern Big Country, through 11 PM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across mainly the northern and eastern parts of our area at mid-afternoon, with new storms developing in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Surface outflow boundary/effective cold front has moved just south of our area, then extended back to the northwest to near the southeastern corner of New Mexico. Partial clearing has occurred north of this boundary over much of our area. With the gradual approach of an upper trough from New Mexico, chances for additional showers and thunderstorms continue for our area through tonight. With a recovering airmass over our area, the combination of instability and effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots, the possibility for severe weather continues through this evening into early tonight with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Patchy fog and low cloud development could occur in mainly the eastern half of our area late tonight and early Friday morning. Overnight lows will be mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect chances of showers and storms to drop off across our area on Friday. Cloud cover will decrease and winds will be from the west to northwest. Expect highs to range from the upper 70s/lower 80s in the Big Country and Heartland areas, to around 90 along the I-10 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Hot and dry weather is expected for this weekend through much of next week as ridging aloft builds across West Central Texas under persistent southerly flow. Highs will range in the mid 90s to around 105 across the area, with Concho Valley seeing some of the higher temperatures. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible next Wednesday and Thursday, with a very small chance for precipitation mid-to-late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 At the start of this TAF package, the core of a storm will track just south of KSJT, and have -TSRA in the KSJT TAF. Farther west, a broken band of storms will track east across some of our area between 01Z and 05Z. This convection will most likely affect KSJT, but our other TAF sites south of KABI may also be temporarily affected by showers/storms. The primary concerns are with large hail and gusty winds with the strongest storms. Brief reductions in ceilings and visibility could occur in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Monitoring radar trends closely and will amend TAFs as needed. Late tonight into early Friday morning, anticipate patchy fog and low cloud development with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Cloud ceilings should persist into late morning over much of the Big Country, but ceilings should climb above 3000ft at KABI by 16Z. Winds from mid-morning into afternoon Friday will be from the west to northwest at 7-11 knots. VFR conditions are expected area wide during the afternoon with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 81 63 93 / 60 10 0 0 San Angelo 60 88 61 99 / 30 10 0 0 Junction 64 92 64 99 / 10 10 0 0 Brownwood 61 82 61 91 / 40 10 10 0 Sweetwater 58 81 63 95 / 60 10 0 0 Ozona 60 88 63 98 / 20 10 0 0 Brady 62 83 62 92 / 30 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...19