Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
114 FXUS65 KVEF 112000 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1258 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will build over the region behind an upper low pulling away across the Four Corners. Temperatures will climb several degrees above normal by Monday and persist through the coming week. && .SHORT TERM...through Monday. Isolated showers and a few brief thunderstorms were developing over northern Mohave and southeast Lincoln counties on the back side of the closed low centered over north central Arizona which was slowly pulling away to the east. Colorado City is the most likely populated area to be impacted this afternoon through early evening, although there is a 20 percent chance Mesquite and nearby communities could get a brief shower or thunderstorm. Aside from brief light to moderate rain showers and lightning, gusty winds 30 to 40 mph will be the main possible impacts with these cells. The rest of our forecast area will remain dry with some scattered fair weather cumulus and decreasing north winds during the late afternoon and evening. Clouds will dissipate after sunset allowing good viewing of the rare aurora event which expected to be visible after 10 pm PDT, similar to Friday night, from southern Nevada according to the NWS Space Weather Prediction Center. A ridge will build over the Great Basin Sunday and Monday while a weak upper low develops well off the central California Coast. This pattern will lead to a warming trend with high temperatures climbing 5-6 degrees each day through Monday and dry weather across most of our region. The exception is the southern Sierra where isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible where mid-level convergence and limited moisture will combine to support afternoon convection. The prevailing south-southeast flow should keep most of the cells west of the Sierra Crest, but a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible around Aspendell by Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model clusters are in reasonable agreement through Tuesday showing mean ridging just off the Pacific Northwest Coast and weak low pressure over or near southern California. This suggests above normal temperatures and dry conditions, except possibly over the Sierra, where southeasterly upslope flow could kick off a few thunderstorms. Model agreement breaks down pretty quickly thereafter, mainly centered around whether and to what degree to amplify a trough rolling through western Canada. Clusters strongly favor generally dry weather Wednesday through Saturday, but from Thursday onward, temperature forecasts become very uncertain. For example, the ECMWF ensemble MOS gives high temperatures at KLAS ranging from 80F to 99F. Will watch how the pattern evolves over the next few days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid... Winds are expected to prevail between 360-030 through this afternoon, but there will also be some variability at times where the winds could shift anywhere between 340-050. Wind speeds are expected to be between 10-20 knots. Winds will diminish late this afternoon and gradually become southwesterly around 7 knots overnight. Winds are forecast to be generally under 7 knots Sunday, but expected to favor a northeast direction in the afternoon. A few showers and isolated storms are possible this afternoon in northern Mohave and southern Lincoln Counties and the threat of any outflow boundaries making it to the valley remains low. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...The overall flow will remain northwest to north over most areas with speeds generally between 10-20 knots. Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon and evening with speeds over most TAF sites dropping below 7 knots. Convection over northwest Arizona, and eastern Lincoln Counties may produce some outflow winds, but those are not expected to reach any TAF sites. FEW-SCT mid and high clouds stream across the area throughout the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter