261
FXUS65 KVEF 021208
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
508 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low
  pressure system moves through. Sudden strong wind gusts will
  again be a concern.

* Drier conditions resume by Friday with a warming trend heading
  into next week.

* Breezy conditions and low humidity will lead to elevated fire
  danger for the 4th of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.

Another active day is in store today as a low pressure system
moves through and interacts with a pool of mid-level moisture
across the region. Moisture depth has increased a bit compared to
Tuesday and surface dewpoints have risen notably as well, which
should work to encourage wetter storms. However, strong wind gusts
will remain a possibility with the stronger storm cores especially
in the afternoon and evening thanks to a deeply mixed lower
atmosphere. HREF once again suggest about a 10% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 58 mph across much of southern Nevada and
Northwest Arizona with 70-90% probabilities for wind gusts over
40 mph. The incoming low is also responsible for ongoing weak
convection extending from the southern Great Basin into the
eastern Mojave Desert early this morning, mainly west of Las
Vegas. This activity will continue into the morning hours and
slowly develop eastward, so a few rumbles and gusty winds will be
possible in the morning hours within the Las Vegas Valley before
more robust redevelopment occurs later in the day.

As the low moves eastward and weakens today into Thursday, drier
air will gradually work east. This will result in precipitation
chances tapering from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday,
though some lingering activity will persist into Thursday
afternoon across Mohave County and perhaps Lincoln and Clark
Counties. Drier air will sweep through area wide by Friday with
temperatures hovering near to slightly below normal over the
weekend before a warming trend begins next week.

Thunderstorm activity will trend wetter today which should limit
the coverage of Dry lightning, though western areas of the Great
Basin and parts of the Mojave Desert may still see relatively
little rainfall with the storms. Nonetheless, surface dewpoints
will keep minimum RH values elevated and help to improve the fire
danger somewhat. However, breezy southwesterly winds on Friday
will return with much drier air pushing in, and will result in
elevated fire danger Friday, just in time for the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The
primary concern this forecast period continues to be
intermittent showers and thunderstorms that will move through the
area through this evening. There is significant uncertainty as to
precise timing and location of storms, though the best window for
convection to directly impact the terminal looks to be mid to
late afternoon. Boundaries will produce erratic gusty winds, with
potential brief visibility reductions in blowing dust. Storms look
to come to an end by late evening, with another quick round of
showers possible toward daybreak Thursday. Winds will be variable
and intermittently gusty throughout the period, gradually shifting
to the northwest and north this afternoon and evening, before
returning to the southwest overnight. Mid and high clouds will
persist through the period, with ceilings down to around
6000-8000ft through this evening, improving thereafter with VFR
conditions expected away from storms.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact  southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona through this evening. Outflow boundaries will
produce erratic gusty winds and possible visibility reductions in
blowing dust, with the greatest confidence in storms impacting
southern Nevada during the mid to late afternoon. Confidence in
timing and location of storms diminishes further south, west, and
north, though the Owens Valley, including KBIH, may see some
showers move off of the Sierra toward the early evening.
Otherwise, winds will be breezy with gusts to 20-25kt expected,
with stronger gusts to around 30kt expected through the Owens
Valley and across the Western Mojave. Overnight, winds will
diminish and settle out of typical diurnal patterns, with ceilings
around 10kft or higher, except near convective activity where
ceilings are expected to drop to 6000-7000ft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter