Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 300215 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
915 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Made some minor adjustments to the sky cover this evening based on
current trends. Otherwise, no changes made to the forecast at this
time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Cool/humid airmass circulating around a broad low to the east will
dominate conditions in the northeast and western Minnesota tonight,
however in our west, we see a ridge of high pressure nosing down out
of Canada. Not the best setup for ideal radiation conditions as we
maintain light northerly flow through early Tuesday, but with the
cool start, dewpoints in the low 30s, a relaxing gradient, and loss
of diabatically driven cumulus - anticipate temperatures will crash
overnight/early Tuesday particularly across north central/northwest
counties. Went a touch below guidance in that area, and have also
issued a frost advisory. The high continues to build across the
region Tuesday, though the influence of the upper low will persist
across our far east into western Minnesota with more diabatically
driven cumulus, some light sprinkles and late morning gusty winds.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The period opens Tuesday night with an exiting upper trough and sfc
high pressure. The east will remain cloudy under the shortwaves
moving through the trough. Areas that clear will fall into the upper
30s to around 40 by early Wednesday morning so may need to keep an
eye open for more frost potential.

Lee side troughing will set up by Wed night as upper ridging begins
to transition over the Plains. Kept in some low end pops across the
southern CWA Wed night as a LLJ develops. Temps will start to
climb back to average on Wednesday and then jump above average on
Thursday and Friday into the 80s under the ridge.

Interestingly, the models keep this ridge pretty "dirty" and
continue to float either weak sfc lows or shortwaves under it. Pops
may be a bit overdone in this relatively unstable regime, but cannot
rule out the potential for showers most days.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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