Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281521 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1021 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 1021 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

It looks like the thicker cirrus clouds will be moving east into
the afternoon allowing for better surface heating. Otherwise, the
very warm air off the surface will become better mixed as winds
all become west northwest behind trough. Still looking for highs
mainly in the 70s and lower 80s.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Extraordinary warm temperatures at 850 mb are located over the region
this morning. Based on the NAM/GFS temps at 850 mb by 12Z should
reach 20C. According to SPC`s sounding climatology page, the record
850 mb temp for Oct 28th on the 12Z sounding is 18.2 degrees C. With
a weak surface trough passing through the region today, good mixing
should produce highs in the 70s and low 80s. While record highs are
not expected, several locations should see their second warmest
temperature today. The warmth will not last long as much cooler
temperatures are expected on Saturday. A storm system currently off
the coast of California will cross the Rockies today and into the
Dakotas later tonight. This system will have good moisture
associated with it as mean specific humidity at 700/500 mb exceed
2 to 3 standard deviations above normal by 12Z Saturday. While the
moisture aloft is there, a Canada highs pressure will filter drier
air in the lower levels. Generally expected a light QPF event for
most of the CWA on Saturday. However a narrow, more intense band
of QPF running from west to east is likely somewhere within the
CWA. A majority of the models depict the band along the ND/SD
border. A few highlight Highway 14. The precipitation should
progress east of the area by Saturday night with dry conditions for
the rest of the short term. WAA will develop on Sunday, especially
in western South Dakota where temperatures will reach the 60s and

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Throughout the period, models suggest that an upper level ridge
(dry conditions) is over the region, interrupted only a couple of
times by a shortwave trof passage (a couple of lower-end chances for
light precipitation). The first shortwave trof appears timed to move
through the region Sunday night into Monday, but most of the
forcing/lift is currently expected to remain bottled up north of
this cwa. Then go all the way to the tail end of the forecast period
(Thursday/Thursday night) to find the next chance for precipitation
associated with the second upper wave forecast to work west to east
across the northern plains. At this point, the column still appears
to be warm enough to support all rain p-type with these upper waves
as they move through. In fact, while some form of upper level ridge
is in place during the period, Canadian cold air looks to be
locked up over Canada, and the temperature forecast basically
remains an at or above climo normal forecast. Just about the only
forecast concern of noteworthiness is how potentially windy it
might get when the first upper wave moves through early in the
week. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models all support winds
becoming rather strong on Monday, when relative humidity values
are forecast to drop into the 30 to 40 percent range. Could be a
potentially hazardous fire weather day on Monday and will continue
to watch this into the shorter range portion of the forecast for


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

A cold front moving southeast across the region will switch winds
around to the northwest. Short range model guidance suggests that
by the end of the TAF valid period, there could be a sub-VFR
stratus deck approaching SODAK. Until then, look for good VFR
under bkn-ovc high-level cirrus clouds to continue.




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