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000
FXUS63 KABR 012344 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...THOUGH DID MAKE A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS. INCREASED POPS A BIT WEST OF THE MISSOURI AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE
MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL SD. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
ABERDEEN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHILE FOCUS SHIFTS TO WESTERN SD DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HI RES MODELS STILL LATCHING ONTO THIS IDEA
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WEAK SFC LOW/BOUNDARY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL SD
SO A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE INVERTED V SHAPED SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY. WHATEVER ACTIVITY MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD LATER ON MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF SOME OVERNIGHT
AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING RIGHT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ENTIRE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS BASICALLY DEFINED BY ILL
DEFINED WAVES/BOUNDARIES CROSSING THE REGION WITHIN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS MAKES FORECASTING CONVECTION DIFFICULT
WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR SHORT WAVES TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON. THIS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
THE FOCUS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST SD.
HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.

WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ENERGY ALOFT MOVING IN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT AGAIN IT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT SFC
BOUNDARIES AND AN OVERALL WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL
UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO STICK WITH RATHER LOW POPS UNTIL SOME OF
THESE STORM CLUSTERS FORM OR GET PICKED UP BY HI RES MODELS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL FORECAST TREND FOR EXTENDED NOT CHANGING MUCH. MEAN RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES
THE PATTERN. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS...WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP BY MID WEEK. FLOW LOOKS TO
FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY
MID WEEK.




&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN