Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250524 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover this evening as a swath
of high clouds is now tracking across the area. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Through Saturday, the forecast challenges are minimal, perhaps
temperatures being the main issue. For tonight, the wind will
continue to decrease, likely going light and variable late. With not
much cloudiness, felt temperatures will probably fall slightly below
guidance and house blend. Relatively mild continental air will
continue across the region over the weekend, but temperatures will
prove a bit cooler for Saturday in a post frontal air mass. The
mercury will turn warmer for Sunday as a ridge aloft builds into
the region. Overall it will be dry with warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The extended forecast is a dry one as models do not show any
noteworthy systems moving across the region during the time period.
Therefore, temperatures will be the main focus, and they appear
to remain on the mild side. 925mb temps generally remain in the
single digits above zero Celsius, except for Monday when a surge
of rather mild air moves northward ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. 925mb temps spike into the teens with decent mixing
winds as well. Increased highs above SuperBlend and went closer to
the warm MEX numbers, which certainly seem possible given the
setup. Of course, will have to watch cirrus potential, but this
can be hammered out closer to Monday. For now, wanted to get temps
closer to their potential rather than undercutting these types of
events which usually seems to be the case.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Saturday.




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