Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231750 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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