Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271810 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
110 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Issued at 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

No major changes to the forecast this morning. Did nudge the far
southwest CWA temps up a degree or two, but changes are minor.
Otherwise expecting mainly dry conditions across our CWA. Daytime
heating thunderstorms are possible across far western South
Dakota, but it appears they will weaken before reaching our CWA
tonight. It is possible that the low level jet could spark some
elevated overnight convection across the central CWA the next
couple of nights, so will look more closely at those possibles
with the afternoon update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper level ridging will slowly build over the region during the
short term period, with just a hint of a shortwave sliding across
the area on Friday. At the surface, high pressure will be dominant
over the Northern Plains through the day Friday, then gets pushed
east, with the CWA being situated between it and low pressure over
the lee of the Rockies. May see a few showers or storms develop
across the western CWA Saturday afternoon as the low and associated
frontal boundary begin to push eastward.

Temperatures will be right around normal, with highs in the 80s
today and Friday. Slightly warmer air gets pulled up over mainly the
western half of the CWA on Saturday, with highs in the 80s east to
the lower 90s west. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Broad mid level ridge over much of the western conus is now progged
to gradually build further north into western Canada, with falling
heights over the eastern conus. This eventually may allow for a
bigger cool off toward the end of the period, but for now
temperatures look to average out near normal for most areas, or
slightly above over the western high plains. As for pcpn chances,
they don`t look great, but there are a couple of opportunities. The
first being Saturday night into Sunday as a weak frontal boundary
combines with marginal moisture/instability and weak energy aloft to
produce some rain. The next chance may come about mid week as
another boundary pushes south into the forecast area.  Otherwise,
dry conditions should dominate the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations this evening and
tomorrow.  Presently, diurnal cu is forming over KATY, but the cloud
bases are expected to remain at or above 4000 ft.

Further west over KMBG and KPIR, skies will cloud over this evening
as westerly mid-level winds will force a cirrus layer from prior
thunderstorms over the area. Surface winds are also expected to pick
up in the early morning hours over the KPIR and KMBG locations,
where steady winds of around 15 kts are likely.




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