Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 180149
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
449 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Very active weather pattern continues over northern Alaska.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a long wave trough over eastern Alaska will
drift west as a very strong shortwave pushes south and east over
the eastern Bering Sea forcing the upper level ridge currently
over the area to retreat south and east. The strong shortwave will
merge with the longwave trough over western Alaska Sunday and
will dig south over the northern Gulf of Alaska Monday. A weak
ridge builds north and east late Monday over the eastern Bering
Sea as another strong shortwave moves north and east into the
western and central Bering Sea Tuesday.

On the surface a 996 mb low over the Gulf of Anadyr Saturday
morning will move east into the Bering Strait Sunday evening and
then south and east over the Norton Sound Sunday morning and over
Bristol Bay Sunday afternoon deepening to 983 mb as it moves.
Heavy snow and and strong winds will push into St Lawrence Island,
the Bering Strait, and lower YK Delta early Saturday morning and
over the Seward Peninsula and Norton Sound through the day
Saturday with Blizzard conditions expected in these areas.
Freezing rain will mix in with the snow south of Anvik both
Saturday and Sunday. Ice accumulations up to one third of an inch
are possible in these areas.

The latest model run continues to indicate nearly three quarters
of an inch of liquid equivalent falling along a path from the
Bering Strait southeast to near McGrath. Heavy snow in the 8 to 12
inches range with locally higher amounts is expected along this
path. Strong winds will accompany the storm especially near the
coast. Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Blizzard
Warnings for zones 207, 209, 210, 211, 212 and 213. The Winter
Storm Watches have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for
zones 214 and 215 where a mix of freezing rain and snow will
limit blowing snow and lower visibilities. A Winter Storm Watch
remains in effect for zone 216. A brief period of strong northwest
winds develops behind the low along the southern portions of
Norton Sound and along the lower YK Dela Coast. High Surf
Advisories have been issued for these areas from Sunday morning
through Monday morning. Storm surge values of 3 to 4 feet will be
pushed to the top of the beaches by 30 to 40 kt onshore winds.

This storm rapidly moves south and east out of the area late
Sunday and Monday however another strong Bering Sea Storm will
move into the central Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Anadyr
Tuesday morning. This storm will bring a prolonged period of
south to southwest winds to the Bering Strait, the south and west
facing coasts of Norton Sound and the lower YK Delta Tuesday and
Wednesday. Will need to monitor for coastal hazards as strong
onshore winds will elevate water levels and onshore winds will
push wave high up the beach. Another round of heavy snow and
freezing rain will possible with this system over the west coast
and western interior.

A third strong Bering Sea storm takes aim on the west coast
Thursday and Friday however model spread is considerable at this
point with significant differences in storm track and strength.
Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... A strong Bering Sea
Storm will moves into the central Bering Sea and into the Gulf of
Anadyr Tuesday morning. This storm will bring a prolonged period
of south to southwest winds to the Bering Strait, the south and
west facing coasts of Norton Sound and the lower YK Delta Tuesday
and Wednesday. Will need to monitor for coastal hazards as strong
onshore winds will elevate water levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214-AKZ215.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ216.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC NOV 17


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