Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 112230
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS. THE GREATEST TOTALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH UP TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW QPFS AGAIN INCREASING
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL BEGIN A SLOW MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE RAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST FROM EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND FROM
NORTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TO SOUTH OF NORTON SOUND AND THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...WITH QPS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH. THE REST OF
THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EAST TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE...THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL QPFS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR
THE WEST AND AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THAT SECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS WITH SPEED OF EXPANSION EAST ON MONDAY. THE NAM HAS IT DRY
FROM FAIRBANKS EAST...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF EXPANDS RAINFALL
EAST TO FAIRBANKS AND FORT YUKON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
SHOULD EXPAND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR... BUT WITH DIMINISHING RAIN
FOR THE WEST COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
WEST COAST...WESTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE COULD TOTAL
ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. SIMILAR AMOUNTS COULD FALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN INTERIOR PICKING UP
MOST OF ITS RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A CONTINUATION OF RAIN FOR THE
EAST...BEYOND TUESDAY.

MOST OF THE AREAS REQUIRE MORE THAN ONE INCH IN A TWENTY-FOUR
PERIOD TO CAUSE FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THIS
SITUATION HAS BE MONITORED CLOSELY.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DA JUL 14


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