Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 282150
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather expected over much of Northern Alaska
through the mid week..while areas south of Fortymile country and
will start to see isolated thunderstorms starting Sunday and
spreading towards the Alaska Range Monday. Models have been in
fairly decent agreement with the upper level high pressure system
located over over the Norton Sound area and shifting northward
toward Point Hope by Memorial Day. All models consistently show an
upper level low developing over the Yukon area and as it continue
to move west across the Alaska Range weakening into an upper
level shortwave and associated surface low. By Tuesday the
shortwave and surface low will be located toward Yukon Delta. The
upper level high will get pushed into Russia with ridge extending
across Western Coast as a stronger upper level low develops over
the Arctic west of Banks Island and with an extending trough over
Eastern Alaska. The associated surface low over Mackenzie Bay on
Tuesday will slide southwest along the Alaska Range by Wednesday
and remain a thermal trough through the Friday. Resulting in
increased shower and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday through
Friday for Eastern Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly flow will increase this
evening as the pressure gradient along the Beaufort Sea Coast
increases. This is a result of the 1034 mb high pressure moving
south and east towards the Beaufort Sea coast and increasing the
pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast through Sunday evening.
East winds in the Beaufort Sea will reach minimum Small Craft
criteria Sunday and persist into Monday before subsiding as high
pressure moves east towards Banks Island. Winds will also increase
along the Arctic Coast from Barrow through Barter Island through
Monday. Expect low ceilings in stratus to persist through evening
with some flurries expected along the Arctic Coast. Warming
temperates with ice free waters may increase chance of fog along
the Arctic Coast overnight.

West Coast and Western interior: Quiet weather wise as clear
skies with warmer temperatures, and dry conditions will persist
across Western Alaska . As the short wave moves west to east along
the Gulf Coast of Alaska on Monday...it may spark off a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley.

Eastern and Central Interior: Skies have cleared out overnight
across much of the eastern and central interior. Fair weather
cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon from Tanana east.
Warmer and dry conditions anticipated through Memorial Day.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase for Southeast portions of the
forecast area from Chicken south on Sunday as instability
increases over the area. Areal coverage for the possibility of
thunderstorms expands Monday to include all of the Alaska Range
from McGrath east as the shortwave moves west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue as
advertised into early next week. No thunderstorm activity is
expected this afternoon or evening. There is a potential for some
isolatedthunderstorms on Sunday from Chicken south to Northway.
On Monday, the coverage area for isolated thunderstorms expands to
include the Alaska Range and upper portions of the Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for river rises anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16



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