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000
FXAK67 PAJK 300054
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...SOME COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT HAS REMAINED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE AUKE BAY AREA FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS AT THE BACK OF THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY TOTALED MORE THAN 1/2 INCH BEFORE FINALLY
WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING. FARTHER NORTH, HEAVY SNOW CONTINUED TO
FALL AT THE KENSINGTON MINE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
FEATURE THAT RESULTED IN HEAVY SNOW IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY
OVERNIGHT IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN DIMINISH TO AN END OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE YAKUTAT AREA CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY FOR THE MOST PART
SINCE LATE MORNING.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND MORE BREAKS WILL SHOW UP FARTHER
NORTH. ENOUGH SO THAT FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN SOME OF THE
PANHANDLE TAF SITES. WHATEVER FOG DOES FORM SHOULD DISPERSE
QUICKLY TOMORROW WITH THE FIRST LIGHT WINDS OF THE DAY.

WINDS AND SEAS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH TONIGHT. A LONG PERIOD
(8 TO 10 SECONDS) 8 FOOT SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE OUTER COAST,
BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND WAVE. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
INTENSIFY TOMORROW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. LOOK FOR
NORTHERLY GALES TO 40 KTS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH 30 KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN LYNN AND 25
KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER GLACIER BAY. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING OUT OF TAKU INLET AS WELL, AND SUSPECT THINGS WILL BE
GETTING PRETTY GUSTY NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU BY THE END OF THE DAY
TOMORROW AS WELL.

PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE NAM WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM GEM FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF FROM ECMWF AND GFS. NO CHANGE TO
TEMPS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NE INTO INTERIOR AK AND BECOME
A BLOCKY UPPER HIGH BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD SFC HIGH OVER
INTERIOR AK AND NW CANADA THRU SAT. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TO THE E THEN SE THRU WRN CANADA NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SE
AND MERGES WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WEAKENING OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL MOVE NWD AND AFFECT MAINLY THE SRN AREA SAT-SUN. LOOKS
LIKE STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO MOVE IN NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT DECREASES SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK ARE FAIRLY LOW.
USED BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM/NAM FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...THEN
EC/GEM BLEND FOR SUN...THEN WPC FOR MON ONWARD. BLENDED WPC WITH
THE EC/GEM BLEND SUN NIGHT TO SMOOTH THE TRANSITION.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NRN AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AND
REACH THE CENTRAL AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE IN LYNN CANAL WITH GALES OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING NRN
CHANNELS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL HAVE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
DEVELOP...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MTN WAVE ACTIVITY IN THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA FRI NIGHT-SUN. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NWD WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME PRECIP INTO THE SRN AREA FOR SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...BUT WILL SHEAR APART AS IT TRIES TO GET FURTHER N DUE TO THE
STRONG BLOCKY HIGH.

WILL SEE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS BY MIDWEEK. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...ONE OR MORE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK/TIMING. WILL HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS FOR TUE-THU. LOOKS LIKE BY TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WOULD GET IN...IT WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE
MOSTLY RAIN...ESPECIALLY BY WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/RWT

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