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FXAK67 PAJK 271341
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT WE HAVE BEEN ON THE BACK END OF THE
EXITING WAVE WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. REMNANT
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS, NEAR SATURATION AND A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. YAKUTAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN THE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BUT FOR NOW THAT HAS CLEARED PER ASOS OBS. GUSTAVUS, HAINES HAVE
LOW CEILINGS WHILE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER BARANOF
ISLAND AND EASTWARD. OVERALL FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN LIMITED.

TODAY WILL GENERALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN ON WED PM
FOR THE FAVORED AREAS THAT WILL NOT SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND UNTIL
THURSDAY WITH THE NEW IMPENDING TROUGH. THE NEXT WAVE IS DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WITH MODELS SHOWING 75+ KNOT JET AT 500MB
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY THURS MORNING. IN RESPONSE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. THE LOW SETS
UP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION IN THE GULF TO GENERATE RAIN BEGINNING
ABOUT 09Z FOR WESTERN AREAS AND SPREADING EASTWARD. POSITIVE CAPE
ZONES WITH THE NEW TROUGH ARE CONFINED TO WELL OFFSHORE INTO
THURSDAY ON MODELS. MODEL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.5 INCH BY THURS 18Z
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS THE SYSTEM SPINS UP WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE AS THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE AFTER
THAT TIME. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR NUDGES TO THE MODEL PREDICTIONS
WERE NECESSARY AS AGREEMENT IS STRONG INTO THURS. MODEL CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BERING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS MOVED FORM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NORTHWARD IN THE STARTING LOW SETUP SATURDAY-SUNDAY AND SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT...HOWEVER
THE CONNECTION HAS BEEN SEVERED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS TO
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. DO EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE LATER HALF OF THURSDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
GOES GENERALLY ZONAL FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW OF THE CONUS. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING
 THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING AND MOVING THE EAST END OF THE
ZONAL FLOW NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND LABOR DAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRIER THAN MID
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME WITH THE
LATER PERIODS BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

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