Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXAK67 PAJK 260028
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 25 2017
.SHORT TERM...Strong 25-35 kt northerly winds through the inner
channels will rapidly diminish tonight as the pressure gradient
weakens. Other than the low departing quickly to the south this
afternoon, there really is not a notable synoptic feature over the
next 24 hours. Therefore, a quiet weather period is in store for
Southeast Alaska. With little in the way of a surface pressure
gradient over the panhandle Sunday, a light wind regime will
result. Weak energy dropping into the eastern gulf will lead to
increased cloud cover Sunday. There will likely be enough moisture
and lift to produce isolated rain and snow showers mainly along
the outer coast Sunday afternoon. These will be in the form of
rain and snow, but expect little if any accumulation.
Used the 12z NAM for minor updates to the previous forecast.
.LONG TERM...Forecast through Tuesday only had minor modifications
to the wind. Consensus from model to model and to the current
forecast was close so kept the current and did a few small
changes. The upper level ridge over the gulf flattens as the flow
becomes more westerly headed into Tuesday which aids in the low
developing in the northern gulf that sweeps a frontal band into
the panhandle with a rough triple point feature near Frederick
The surface low is expected to stall in the northeast gulf and
will keep spinning showers onshore through wednesday. A system
developing further south Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be
moving northeast to impact the southern panhandle. Timing/location
of this wave slightly differing so complete impact of this
varying for the moment depending on which solution is favored.
With cooler air in place and aloft expect that nearly all of the
precipitation Tuesday to Thursday to be snow. Issued a special
weather statement as heads up earlier, and expect that following
shifts will be watching to determine if anything more severe my be
needed to be issued regarding the waves.
Blended the Wednesday to Saturday forecasts with the WPC solution
and cooled down temperatures a degree or two overall. Confidence
is good into Monday... and average after that.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-041-042.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-043-051>053.
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