652
FXAK67 PAJK 160604
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1004 PM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...Key Points:
- A ridge over the gulf is will allow for dry conditions to
  continue with partly cloudy skies.
- Weak trough could bring light precipitation to Northern gulf
  coast Wednesday night into Thursday
- High temperatures in the mid to high 60s expected to continue,
  with 70s in the southern panhandle.
- Winds remain light in many areas with the exception of afternoon
  sea breezes and northerly moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 20
  kt) in Clarence Strait.

Details: Minor changes were made to the forecast for Tuesday due
to an upper level trough that moved through the northern
panhandle, bringing some drizzle and cloud cover. This in turn put
a damper on any significant sea breeze development and also
limited maximum temperatures Tuesday afternoon for the Icy Strait
corridor. Out in the gulf, a developing ridge continues to bring
northwesterly winds and gradually drier conditions across the
panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. With skies clearing out once
more Wednesday as the ridge tightens and the ridge axis sets up in
the central gulf, multiple areas will see temperatures into the
low 70s once more Wednesday. In the interior, a heat advisory has
been issued for Hyder for temperatures Wednesday afternoon
expected to reach or exceed 80 degrees. Increasing day time
temperatures will allow for sea breezes to form increasing winds
for some land areas. Skagway will experience the largest affect
from sea breezes with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the
afternoon.

As of 345 PM local time, thermal troughing over the interior has
lead to a sea breeze in Taiya Inlet with southerly winds 15 to 20
kts observed at Skagway. This breeze is expected to weaken
overnight becoming light and variable before picking up once more
Wednesday with daytime heating and diminished cloud cover.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Sunday night / Overall high pressure over
eastern Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska continues through the weekend,
with ridge flattened Friday to Sunday. Ridge begins to rebuild on
Sunday but not enough impact southeast until the Day 7 and 8
periods.  Light rain for the northeast gulf Coast with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch and then that falling off to trace or
less.

Continued onshore/along shore for the Northeast Gulf Coast and
panhandle through the weekend so clouds may stack near the coastal
zone there.  Will need to watch if marine layer stays anchored along
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Extremely small changes to the ongoing TAF set, with
mostly clear skies. Starting to get a mid level marine layer to
develop on the NE gulf coast. Backing off of the development on a
low level marine layer due to slight troughing aloft, just barely
visible on satellite. This combined with CAA aloft looks to
increase lapse rates just enough to mix out some lower level
clouds. Best chances for fog continue to be around Petersburg and
Wrangell, which look to have a nice inversion overnight. That
being said, dry air advection has dropped dewpoints steadily this
afternoon. Therefore, not expecting any widespread fog.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: As the ridge continues to tighten and the
ridge axis moves into the central gulf, northwesterly winds along
the central to southern coast will continue to increase to NW
moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts Tuesday evening. Along
with strong breezes, times of near gale to gale force wind gusts
have a chance of occurring Tuesday evening and night near the
southern coast from Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance. Wave
heights build to 6 to 8 ft, with the largest seas west of Prince
of Wales Island and near Dixon Entrance. These increased winds and
waves are expected into Wednesday evening before the ridge begins
to slightly weaken.

Inside: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist across
the inner channels. An upper level trough brought cloud cover and
even some drizzle to the northern panhandle which put a damper on
any significant sea breeze development this afternoon. The lone
exception is in the north at Skagway, due to thermal troughing
over the interior, which is seeing southerly winds of 15 to 20 kt
in the area of Taiya Inlet. These and other sea breezes in areas
that dodged cloud cover today will show up once more on Wednesday
with similar strength. Along Clarence Strait, Northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 20 kts through the period with the tightening
ridge. These winds across Clarence Strait will remain elevated
through Wednesday, beginning to diminish Wednesday evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...STJ

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