Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 201149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC
THE RAIN IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST IN GA WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF THE LA COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 WITH RAIN COMING TO AN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW
THE CURRENT SFC LOW IN THE GULF TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THANKS TO A WEDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DOWN
INTO EASTERN AL.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT`S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF AL WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ISO/SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TEMPS COOL DOWN BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WHILE THERE IS A CERTAINTY THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS...THERE IS STILL A
GREAT BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. MGM AND TOI ARE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE CONDITIONS GET DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...
POTENTIALLY LOWER. THE REST...ESPECIALLY BHM AND ANB...WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATES DUE
TO THE VARIABLE CLOUD CONDITIONS.

THINGS DON`T GET MUCH EASIER...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PULLS OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...AND OTHER
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
LONGER IN THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  36  53  44  55 /  20  10  10  40  30
ANNISTON    52  39  55  47  56 /  20  10  10  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  53  40  57  47  60 /  20  10  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  55  39  57  47  60 /  10  10  10  30  30
CALERA      53  41  56  47  59 /  20  10  10  40  30
AUBURN      54  46  55  48  59 /  50  10  30  60  40
MONTGOMERY  56  45  58  49  63 /  40  10  20  50  30
TROY        56  46  57  50  65 /  60  20  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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