Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 010442
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RAISE THEM 2-3
DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. LOOKING UPSTREAM IT IS CURRENTLY
42F AT NASHVILLE AND 35F AT INDIANAPOLIS...WHICH IS THE SOURCE
REGION FOR THE AIRMASS COMING OUR WAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TYPICAL OF COLD
ADVECTION REGIMES...SEE NO REASON HAVE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO THE GFS AT 12Z SATURDAY...
WHICH SHOULD BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SITUATION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE NOW BASED HEAVILY ON THE RAW NAM 2M TEMPS. WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OTHER COUNTIES MAINLY FOR THESE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT IS NOW A WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AFTER 15Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE EASTERN SITES. IN FACT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCL ARE IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY AFTER 15Z. SO WENT WITH NNW WINDS AFTER 15Z AT 19G30KT
FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF SOME AFTER 00Z BUT WILL
REMAIN AROUND 7KTS THROUGH 6Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...
ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...RANDOLPH...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$








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