Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 272355
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
655 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak upper low pressure area will continue to track generally
northward along the Mississippi River tonight. Ongoing showers, and
some storms, will gradually decrease in coverage thru the evening
hours, with the best chances remaining west of Interstate 65. With
moisture still in place and isentropic upglide setting up once
again, it looks like we could see a recurrence of a stratus deck
closer to sunrise across the northern portions of the forecast area.
Just like we saw today, this cloud cover could keep highs in the
mid/upper 80s for some locations on Thursday.

The weak upper low will be absorbed into the upper trough
(currently over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest region)
later tonight, with the trough slowly advancing eastward. The
upper ridge centered just off the East Coast will gradually break
down, with troughing dominating the eastern CONUS by the weekend.
An uptick in convective coverage is anticipated across the
northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area on
Thursday/Friday as the trough approaches. Several impulses riding
eastward within the westerlies will lead to at least scattered
showers/storms over the weekend and into early next week. The best
coverage will generally come during the afternoons/evenings each
day.

Thanks to slightly lower heights, cloud cover and convection,
temperatures will be closer to normal during much of the period.
Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, with lows
hanging out in the low/mid 70s.

Looking into the extended, models indicate that the Desert Southwest
upper ridge will begin to build slightly eastward by Tue/Wed, which
could lead to a slight increase in temps and decrease in overall
rain chances.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

A very tropical air mass in place across central Alabama with sct
to nmrs shwrs and a few tstms producing brief periods of heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Remaining shwrs not likely to impact any
TAF site before they dissipate by 02z. MVFR cigs will likely form
again tonight starting arnd 06z in the west and spreading across
north Alabama by 08z. Low level ridging and relatively drier
conditions across south alabama should maintain VFR conds. Low
level pressure gradient will keep winds from the ssw between 5-8
kts overnight, and then increase to 10-14 kts by 16z. Sct shwrs
will develop by 16z across the west Alabama with tstms after 18z.
Better rain chances will be across north Alabama on Thursday, and
did not forecast any wx impacts at KMGM or KTOI.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend, with the exception of
Thursday when southwesterly sustained winds will be in the 10-15
mph range. Since surface dew points are so high, critical fire
weather thresholds are not expected to be met, with no watches or
warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  88  71  89  71 /  30  40  30  50  30
Anniston    72  90  71  90  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
Birmingham  74  87  73  90  74 /  30  40  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  73  90  72  92  74 /  30  50  30  40  30
Calera      73  89  72  91  73 /  30  30  20  40  20
Auburn      73  93  73  91  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  74  96  74  95  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
Troy        72  94  72  92  73 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.