Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 040857
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DRIVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED
UNDER THE ENVELOPE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR TODAY...HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LARGE BUT WEAK 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THE WEAKNESS AT 500MB IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK...AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY THURSDAY...THE WEAK
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT
AS A COLD FRONT AND WESTERLY JET STREAM WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWARD. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AT THE VERY END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NO DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST THRU 17Z. FRIDAY AFTN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST. MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
MVFR DUE TO FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WITH KMGM AND KTOI POSSIBLY
DROPPING BELOW 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME. SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
BY 16Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  70  89  69  85 /  20  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    92  71  90  70  86 /  20  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  92  73  92  71  87 /  20  20  30  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  94  74  94  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
CALERA      91  73  91  71  87 /  20  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      91  73  90  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  72  90 /  20  20  40  30  40
TROY        93  72  93  71  88 /  20  20  50  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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