Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 020141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY
MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS TO ZERO AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NY STATE AS SEEN ON LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND USHER
IN DRIER/LESS HUMID WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S THRU THE
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL WEATHER TOMORROW/SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. ENJOY! EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO THE N...WHILE GUSTY SW WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
DISSIPATING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED
A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW. TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER S COASTAL
WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT WEST.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THESE SEAS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/RLG


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