084
FXUS64 KBRO 140324
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1024 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Near to above average (1.6-2.0 in.) PWAT values are likely to
continue into Tuesday as surface high pressure over the northern-
central Gulf slowly shifts westward to the northwestern Gulf. This
will maintain a humid airmass with onshore southeasterly to
southerly winds as well as a low (15-20%) chance of isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon along the seabreeze, mainly
across portions of the northern ranchlands, near and east of US-281.
PWAT values decrease Tuesday into Wednesday, likely staying below
average for the rest of the week, as deep south Texas remains on the
southwest side of a low pressure system moving into the central Gulf
states, thus also increasing subsidence aloft while decreasing cloud
coverage and rain chances. Although temperatures are expected to
remain near average during the week, maximizing into the mid to
high 90s inland, a slight warming trend is likely to raise daily
afternoon temperatures by a few degrees throughout the rest of
the period, becoming slightly above average over the weekend while
highs in the mid 80s persist along the coast. Highs in the lower
100`s become more widespread across the Rio Grande Plains by
midweek, possibly expanding eastward towards US-281 over the
weekend and into next Monday. As onshore southeasterly to
southerly winds continue, afternoon heat indices are likely to
range from 100-110 degrees. Near average overnight lows are likely
to persist, with temperatures minimizing in the 70`s inland to
near 80 degrees closer to the coast.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues into Monday along the
lower Texas beaches.
&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Breezy south-southeasterly winds are expected to wane down to a
light to moderate breeze (around 08-12 knots) shortly after
sunset this evening along with VFR conditions continuing at all
terminals til about 06-08Z tonight. Overnight, enhanced lower
level moisture is likely (60-70% chance) to result in MVFR
ceilings at KMFE, while a moderate (40-50%) chance for periods of
MVFR ceilings are possible at KHRL and KBRO, noted in the
TEMPO`s. A brief period, or two, of IFR cloud heights is possible
at KMFE towards sunrise. Conditions improve Monday morning back to
VFR with south-southeasterly winds increasing back to similar
speeds as today (15-20 knots gusting to 20-26 knots) at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to
moderate (2-3 feet) seas prevail through the rest of this week
and into the beginning of next week. Brief afternoon periods of
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible across the
Laguna Madre as moderate to fresh winds result from a locally
enhanced pressure gradient. Mostly dry conditions continue through
the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  93  80  93 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  95  77  96 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80  97  80  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  87 /  10  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  91  78  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish