Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 062007
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE IS DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE DOES
SHIFT EAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
AFFECTED AND KICKED EASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS WELL AND
BRING SOME INCREASED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN PLACE BELIEVE WE WILL NOT BE
AFFECTED BY ANY STORMS MOVING OFF THE SIERRA MADRES SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW STATES WILL START LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MON AND TUES AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BROAD 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES THROUGHOUT NEXT FRI. AS
THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOME POCKETS OF PVA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF TX
WHICH MAY HELP FIRE OFF SOME ISOLD CONV ACROSS THE RGV SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON. LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE 500 MB TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TX WED AND THURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME MORE MAINLY ISOLD/SCT
CONV OUT OUT WEST. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONG RANGE PERIOD APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL SO EXPECT
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO REMAIN PRETTY
LOW.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WAA IS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT DAY 7
EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE RGV. ALSO THE
FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK IN BOOSTING UP THE MAXES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. SO WILL OPT
FOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS IS
VERY STABLE. COMPARISON OF THE 500 MB GFS AND THE ECMWF 500 MB
FIELDS REFLECT PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST
DISAGREEMENT IS IN THE HANDLING OF THE DEPTH OF THE EXPECTED 500
MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES
LATE NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PREVAIL
THR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INCREASES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS LIKELY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A GOOD
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL PUSH THE
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE UP TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND MON. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN SOME FOR
TUES AND WEDS ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM DOWN A BIT
REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  86  72  84 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          66  87  71  87 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            65  89  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              67  90  71  93 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  92  70  94 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  82  73  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60



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