Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 292337 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...EXCEPT
FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE INCLUSION OF A
COUPLE OF PERIODS FOR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RELEVENT
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOW:

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS
THE CWA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN MORNING AS A 500MB LOW
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS ALLOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS A 500MB LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST EVEN AS MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX SUN NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG
TERM WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 500MB TROUGH/LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THEN THE 500MB LOW MOVES OVER THE LOUISIANA BY MIDWEEK. THE MODELS
ARE IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST ECMWF MOS POP NUMBERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...WHICH
ALSO SKEWS THE SUPERBLEND POPS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LOWER POPS AS THE GFS IS INDICATING DUE TO LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATERS...RH VALUES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS. NO
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 2 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUN
NIGHT AS A RESULT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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