Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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279
FXUS65 KBYZ 241519
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
919 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Patchy fog had all but dissipated over the forecast area this
morning based on satellite imagery and webcams. Water vapor loop
showed an upper ridge building into the area with a baroclinic
leaf over the Pacific NW heralding the approach of the next system
which will move into the area tonight. Thin cirrus will cross the
area today ahead of this system and should not be enough to limit
temperatures rises much. With veering flow over the area, expect
temperatures to rise into the 60s across the area so have raised
them several degrees. Tweaked cloud cover based on the CONSShort.
Winds were in good shape with gusty winds expected in KLVM today
into tonight due to lee troughing. Winds will not be strong enough
for an Advisory, but could be some gusts to 50 mph for travelers
along I-90. Arthur

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Today should be a quiet, dry day across Montana as a ridge builds
into the area. This will see temperatures warming into the upper
50s to lower 60s across the area. This afternoon a weak lee-side
low will develop over eastern Montana. As it does, winds along the
southwestern foothills will increase. While the pressure gradient
will increase, it does not look like it will get strong enough to
create many issues, though a few gusts up to 50mph are possible.

Saturday the ridge will give way to another trough. A cold front
will move through during the morning which will lead to cooler
temperatures and scattered rain showers. Temperatures will remain
warm enough aloft that the majority of the precip will fall as
rain. However down along the Big Horn mountains some additional
snow is possible. Precip chances will continue overnight as the
front stalls out and the main trough axis moves across the
northern Rockies. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Weather pattern will remain active through next week, with mostly
above normal temperatures and a chance of precip every couple
days.

Sunday looks dry underneath building ridge aloft, after early
morning showers exit our east. Ridge axis will shift east by
Monday, allowing for increased shower chances in our west as next
Pacific trof moves inland and flow aloft backs to the southwest.
Best chance of precip will be late Monday night thru Tuesday as a
trof of uncertain magnitude moves thru the area. Models agree in a
split, with stronger forcing well to our south, but we could see a
period of upper diffluent flow with low level upslope winds. Will
keep highest pops in our south and east, with a surface inverted
trof across our east enhancing precip chances. Lower elevation
temps should stay warm enough to keep p-type as rain, though a mix
with wet snow is possible along the foothills above around 5 kft.
Expect drying from west to east Tuesday night.

After a brief dry period Wednesday, next opportunity for showers
will be Thursday and Friday as yet another Pacific trof moves
inland. This late-week system has a chance to be a little more
dynamic in our cwa, but there is obviously plenty of uncertainty
so far in advance, and as with the previous trof this one will
also split with stronger low eventually developing over the
southern CONUS. In any event, have raised pops a bit to get them
above climatology for Thu/Fri.

Above normal temps will persist through most if not all of the
extended period, with highs mostly 50s to mid 60s. There is a
chance that next Friday could be a cooler day if we tap into a
Canadian airmass with clouds/precipitation. In fact, some
foothills wet snow is not out of the question as 850mb temps fall
to near zero.

JKL


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions will prevail across the region today and
tonight. An approaching Pacific disturbance will bring snow
showers to the western mountains late tonight, with obscurations
likely. SW winds will increase along the foothills with gusts of
30-40 kts at KLVM late this afternoon and evening. JKL/Dobbs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 043/055 036/057 038/061 039/054 037/061 039/057
    0/U 13/W    41/B    01/B    33/W    11/B    22/W
LVM 065 038/051 030/054 033/057 033/052 032/060 035/052
    0/N 24/W    51/B    13/W    44/W    11/B    33/W
HDN 067 042/056 034/059 035/064 037/056 034/063 036/061
    0/U 03/W    31/B    01/B    33/W    21/U    22/W
MLS 067 039/061 038/061 037/064 039/054 036/061 038/061
    0/U 01/E    31/B    00/B    25/W    41/B    12/W
4BQ 064 039/061 038/058 035/064 037/055 036/060 038/060
    0/U 01/E    62/W    00/B    25/W    41/B    12/W
BHK 062 036/060 037/060 032/061 035/052 034/058 035/058
    0/U 01/E    63/W    00/B    26/W    51/B    12/W
SHR 065 040/055 033/055 032/063 036/053 034/061 035/060
    0/U 04/W    62/W    01/B    34/W    21/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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