Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MILD AND DRY THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE
TOMORROW AND INTO EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE AND
WE WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT POSSIBLE UPGRADE FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD WARMUP TO START THE WEEK. AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 70S AGAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AS SOME STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN.
TOMORROW WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...MUCH LIKE THE AREA SAW ON SATURDAY. AS
A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE DEEP MIXING...UP TO
AROUND 280MB...SO GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH AROUND LIVINGSTON
AND THE FOOTHILLS. AS THE THROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST...THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...AND WITH SOME
CAPE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH
WIDESPREAD QPF SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVER
NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING TO COVER THE PREFRONTAL HOT AND DRY AND THE WINDS POST
FRONT CONDITIONS. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
SATURDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. STILL...PATTERN NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DESPITE
A COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GOOD MIXING/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT INTO THE TEENS AGAIN WITH
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH A GOOD MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS INTO THURSDAY... WHICH MAINLY MEANS
A EVEN COOLER DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS WHICH WOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
BENEFICIAL PRECIP...BUT NOTHING APPEARS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.
WE BRING THE RIDGE BACK ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 60S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME TYPE OF
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS INTO THE WESTERN US. DEPENDING ON THE
POSTIONING OF THE TROUGH...WE COULD START TO SEE A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOP WITH AN INFUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. HAVE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WE WATCH THIS
TREND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SW-W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INCLUDING KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 045/078 042/059 033/053 032/059 036/063 036/060
    0/B 01/N    41/N    12/W    21/B    00/B    11/B
LVM 071 043/075 035/053 027/049 026/055 032/058 030/054
    0/B 03/T    43/W    13/W    31/B    10/B    12/W
HDN 074 038/080 039/062 030/055 028/062 031/066 034/062
    0/B 01/B    41/N    12/W    21/B    00/B    11/B
MLS 069 040/080 041/061 031/052 029/060 031/063 033/061
    0/U 01/B    21/N    01/B    11/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 070 038/081 039/061 029/051 027/059 029/065 032/063
    0/B 01/B    21/N    02/W    11/B    00/B    01/B
BHK 067 037/078 038/060 028/048 025/058 028/061 030/059
    0/N 00/B    21/N    01/N    11/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 069 037/077 036/056 027/048 025/055 028/063 032/060
    0/B 01/B    32/W    12/W    21/B    10/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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