Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMOKE MIXING OUT A BIT QUICKER OVER
EASTERN MONTANA DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY PUSH ACROSS ALBERTA
WEAKENING THE SMOKE PUSH INTO THE LOWER 48. STILL WILL BE HAZY BUT
EXPECT BETTER SUNLIGHT TO FURTHER MIX OUT THE SMOKE. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/U 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/U 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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