Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290255
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVOCATE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90 FROM ABOUT
2 AM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO COVER THIS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY
PRECIP GETTING ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    22/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    22/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    22/T    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    10/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    22/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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