Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 161856
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
OFF TO THE E/NE AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE
LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AND BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S...HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ANY
LOWER THAN THE M/U 30S. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE
LOWS IN THE 40S. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS ACROSS
THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S AROUND ESCOURT
STATION.

FOR THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THE ONLY
MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL STAY UP INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, WE EXPECT A HARD FREEZE OVER THE NW WHERE
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION, GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING IN.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE NW TO AROUND
40 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY VFR.  PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY...BUT AREAS OF MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCT -SHRA
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF KHUL.


SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING.
BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH A WARM FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAKE A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE ONLY IMPACT ON
OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 13-15 SEC FROM
THE SE THAT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS WILL BE THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 5 FT.  FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ONE
MIGHT BE NEEDED BY WED PM OR WED NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EDOUARD MAY REACH 5 FT BY WED
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS






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