Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 211119
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
619 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the region this morning. A
cold front will cross the area Wednesday and will be followed by
high pressure on Thursday. A series of cold fronts will cross
the area Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:19 am update...A mid level deck of clouds associated with a
warm front are lifting across the Downeast Region and into the
Central Highlands. These clouds will lift north and east and
across northern Maine over the next few hours. Only minor tweaks
to the ongoing forecast based mainly on the latest observations
and satellite pictures.

Previous discussion...
A surface ridge axis across Maine early this morning will shift east
today with low pressure in Ontario to pass south of James Bay early
this afternoon and into far northern Quebec tonight.  A warm front
will lift north across the region this morning ushering a much
milder air mass into the area. The 850H temperature on the 00z KCAR
sounding was -17.9C, and the models have the 850H surging to around
0C at KCAR this afternoon.  There will be a deck of mid level clouds
that will accompany the warm front, but they should clear out of the
Downeast Region by late morning, and across northern Maine by early
this afternoon.  Highs this afternoon will be 10 to 15 degrees (F)
warmer than Monday, and should range from the mid 30s in the
Saint John Valley and from 45 to 50 Downeast.

Tonight a cold front will advance toward the region, and is expected
to be in the Saint Lawrence River Valley of Quebec by 12Z Wednesday.
At the same time an area of low pressure is expected to lift
north off the North Carolina coast by 12Z Wed. The precipitation
with the southern branch low will hold off until after 12Z, and
most of the precipitation with the incoming front should hold
off too, but a rain or snow shower could work into far Northwest
Maine toward morning. The PoPs with the southern branch low were
slowed by a few hours with this forecast package. Temperatures
will likely drop off some during the evening, and slowly rise
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next system for Wednesday brings a shot of precipitation for
Eastern Maine. System doesn`t look terribly well organized.
Heaviest precip comes as rain over Downeast Maine, while
Northern Maine is more moisture-starved with most of the precip
coming with the cold front and generally being less than a
quarter inch. For precip type, southern areas will see only
rain, while over the north it could start as a mix, go over to
rain midday through early afternoon Wed, then back to a mix late
Wednesday before ending. Some spots could pick up an inch or
two of snow, mainly over higher terrain, but doesn`t look like a
big deal.

Colder, drier air moves back in Wednesday night into Thursday,
with Thursday`s daytime temps staying below freezing over
Northern Maine and being around 40 toward the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak upper level trough Thursday night into Friday could bring a
touch of snow over the north. Any surface cold frontal feature
should fizzle as it moves into Maine, so don`t expect much
temperature change, with Friday being another cooler than
average day like Thursday. A bit warmer Saturday ahead of a
fairly potent upper level trough approaching from the Great
Lakes. The trough moves over New England Sunday into Monday with
temperatures returning to below average. There will be a chance
of precipitation Sunday into Monday, although it appears that
any strong systems will remain to our east. Will have to keep an
eye out for Sunday though, as the upper trough will still be
just off to our west and if it approaches a bit slower than
models currently have, a strong low which many models currently
track north through the Canadian Maritimes could impact our area
instead. Although November has been cooler than average, it has
been snow-starved. This is bound to change eventually.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight.  LLWS possible tonight
with a southwest wind of 35 to 40 knots at 2K ft agl.

SHORT TERM: MVFR and possible IFR during the day Wednesday with
areas of precipitation and low clouds. Becoming VFR most areas
Wednesday night except perhaps MVFR ceilings persisting over the
north. Generally VFR Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A brief lull in the wind expected this morning, but it
picks up again this afternoon in southwest flow ahead of an
approaching cold front. Will extend the small craft advisory
for the coastal waters through tonight, and will start a small
craft advisory for the intra-coastal waters this afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Conditions just below small craft on Wednesday,
likely picking back up to small craft levels Wednesday night
behind a cold front. Winds generally below small craft levels
Thursday into Friday, although seas will be hovering around 5
feet (small craft levels) away from the immediate coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
So far only 0.8" of snow has been observed at Caribou this
November. November 1960 holds the honors for the least snowy
November at Caribou with 1.5" of snow. Temperatures so far this
month are averaging 1.5F below average at Caribou, and 1.3F
below average at Bangor.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...CB/Foisy
Marine...CB/Foisy
Climate...CB


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