Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241216
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
816 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving off the Downeast coast this morning will
dissipate today. High pressure will build across the area
tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure will slowly move up the coast
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:15 AM Update...The big challenge this morning is temperatures.
Had to lower temps a few degrees through mid morning across the
north where cool dry air has moved in, and had to raise temps a
few degrees Downeast south of the front. Central areas are
mostly cloudy along the front while skies are mostly clear
across the north, north of the front and Downeast, south of the
front. The frontal boundary and clouds is expected to push south
this morning.

Previous discussion...
A cold front is pushing off the Downeast coast early this
morning, and will stall out and dissipate across the coastal
waters today. The brunt of the cold air mass slides from central
Quebec and into Newfoundland, but it does clip northern Maine
with 850H temps of around -10C across the Saint John Valley, but
closer to +2C along the Hancock County coast. This will lead to
a sharp north to south temperature gradient with highs not
getting much above 40 degrees in the saint John Valley, but
closer to 60 degrees across the interior Downeast region. The
sky will be partly to mostly sunny with some cu to pop up across
the north in the colder air. Tonight will be mainly clear and
cold as high pressure settles into the area. Lows will range
from the 20s across the Crown to the 30s toward the coast. Some
of the broad northwest valley may drop into the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wet and cloudy weather pattern setting up Tuesday night and
persisting for quite a while. Long moist southerly fetch setting
up for Wednesday/Thursday with precipitable water values around
record high levels for so early in the season. Went with close
to 100 percent chance of rain most areas late Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. At least Tuesday day looks generally
dry...enjoy it while it lasts as rain is on the way. Airmass
aloft is quite warm, but with moist low level southerly flow
off the cool Gulf of Maine, don`t anticipate it being that warm
at the surface. At least it will be warm enough for precipitation
to safely be all rain.

Models all have the deep moisture over the region with the very
high precipitable water values, but overall not too concerned
about flooding for a few reasons. First, expect precipitation
rates not to be conducive to flash flooding, with little if any
in the way of convection and more of a stratiform rain. Second,
although rivers are running high, they are running highest in
the north, but the best chance for heaviest rain totals from 1.5
to 2.5 inches is Downeast where rivers aren`t running as high.
Third, upper level dynamics are fairly weak and will limit the
ability of the high precipitable water values to translate into
that heavy of rainfall. Fourth, MMEFS ensemble river guidance
indicates that even with the high end of rain occurring, most
rivers should be able to handle the potential couple inches of
rain. Still, will need to keep an eye on things.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wet and unsettled continuing into late week. Deepest moisture
moves off to our east Thursday and Friday, but still a chance of
rain due to persisting low level moisture. Perhaps a bit of a
break in the action late Saturday to early Sunday before the
next likely rainmaker moves in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A few patches of IFR ceilings early this morning
along the coast along with patchy fog will give way to VFR
by 12-13Z. MVFR-IFR in spots across northern Maine to the south
of KPQI will give way to VFR by 13Z. VFR for the remainder of
the day and through tonight.

SHORT TERM:
VFR Tuesday, but deteriorating to predominant IFR areawide
Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday night with rain and low
ceilings. Expect general MVFR Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions likely Tuesday night and
persisting for several days after. With a long southerly fetch,
seas will build to around 9 feet Wednesday and Thursday. May be
minor coastal erosion around the high tide Wednesday night.
Something to watch, but not overly concerned at this point.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCB
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...CB/Foisy
Marine...CB/Foisy



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