Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250117
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
917 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will stall over Downeast areas by
late tonight... then lift back northeast a warm front Monday.
High pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere will
prevail Monday night and most of Tuesday. Another backdoor cold
front will then cross from Northern Maine late Tuesday afternoon
becoming stationary along the Downeast coast late Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:17 PM Update...One last shower is moving off the Washington
County coast. A very muggy night for anytime of the year with a
71F dew point at KHUL as of 9 PM, and widespread dew points in
the 60s. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the
latest observations, satellite and radar trends, and near term
model trends.

Previous discussion...
Latest radar ref imagery does show a few lgt shwr returns this
hr ovr far NE Aroostook county, but most of the FA remains
capped this aftn for any hi cnvctn with capping zone between 8
to 12kft MSL. We did leave a mention of isold shwrs til erly eve
across Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn, but most of the area will
remain dry with the shwr threat ending after sunset.

Otherwise, intervals of cldnss will persist across the N ovrngt
as a weak backdoor cold front settles S to interior Downeast
ME...becoming stationary by daybreak. Oceanic ST and fog will
brush the Downeast coast with patchy fog further inland,
otherwise slightly drier sfc dwpt air behind the weak cold front
should keep fog from forming ovr Nrn ptns of the FA.

Remaining cldnss across the N and E will exit the Rgn by midday
as the front rapidly lifts NE as a warm front toward the Gaspe
Peninsula, allowing for all lower trrn lctns N of the immediate
coast to reach well into the 80s again by mid aftn, with a
shallow aftn sea breeze keeping hi temps from reaching 80 deg
alg the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will remain just to our north Monday night into
Tuesday morning, then sag south just a bit Tuesday afternoon.
Hence warm and muggy conditions will continue through Tuesday
night, though far northern areas may see a bit of relief
depending on how far south the front makes it Tuesday. This
front may allow a few showers or thunderstorms to pop up Tuesday
afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Scattered showers
arrive Wednesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the
west. Showers will develop by afternoon ahead of this boundary,
but warm air aloft and increasing cloud cover will limit
instability and thunderstorm potential for all but the north.
Highs will be cooler on Wednesday, especially for northern
Maine, but it will still very muggy since dewpoints will remain
in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front will cross the state Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, bringing showers for the overnight
hours. This front will be followed by high pressure, along with
much more seasonable temperatures and dewpoints. Highs will be
in the 60s in most areas by late in the week, with some 50s
possible in the northwest. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid
40s, with colder readings in the usual sheltered valleys in the
North Woods. The high should keep conditions dry through the
end of the week, though it should be noted that the 12z GFS
shows some rain coming in on Friday and Friday night with an
upper trough. Have kept just slight chance PoPs for as neither
the ECMWF nor the Canadian match this solution. Much of the long
range guidance continues to show Hurricane Maria remaining well
to our south through much of the period before being shunted
eastward next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR thru Mon. Cannot rule out a brief pd of
MVFR SC clgs at KFVE and/or a pd of MVFR/IFR oceanic ST
clgs/fog at KBHB late tngt and/or erly Mon morn. Not enough
confidence though to mention low clds or fog for Downeast TAF
sites given that none occurred late last ngt when fcstd.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight
hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each
day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon, but more widespread activity is expected Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning as a cold front crosses the
region. MVFR conditions are possible in any precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns ovr our waters attm. Wv hts may begin
building close to SCA thresholds ovr our outer MZs late Mon
aftn. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts with primary
wv pds ranging from 10 to 14 sec.

SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet early this week,
mainly in long period swell from Hurricane Maria, so a Small
Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the
only concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to
1-3SM at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature was established at Caribou, Maine this
afternoon. The high of 85F broke the previous record of 80F,
last set in 1963. The high at Houlton of 87F broke the previous
record of 81F, set in 1958. The high at Millinocket of 87F broke
the previous record of 86F set in 1920. The high at 89F at
Bangor broke the old record of 88F set in 1930.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/VJN/Hastings
Marine...CB/VJN/Hastings
Climate...CB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.