Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 201035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0635 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT





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