Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 062125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
425 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OR RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS
WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES. &&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT MVFR TEMPO IFR AT FVE DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT HUL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH
TEMPO LIFR VIS AND NORTH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS FRONT WILL
BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED
IT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT


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