Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 232342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016
High pressure will gradually shift offshore and persist through
much of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers and tstms possible prior to 0130Z to the west of
I-95 where mesoscale boundaries collide. Otherwise...areas of
high level debris clouds will prevail. There are signals that
isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms could redevelop over
the coastal waters after midnight within an area of enhanced
surface moisture convergence. Some of this activity could brush
the lower South Carolina coast, particularly Charleston County,
but but most of this will remain offshore as low-level winds veer
to the southwest. Will carry 20% pops for beach communities after
midnight with non-mentionable pops elsewhere. Lows will range from
the mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches, Downtown
Charleston and around Lake Moultrie.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect little change in the pattern through at least early week. A
mid and upper level ridge will build over the area from the west,
while a surface ridge will remain centered to the southeast. This
will setup low level light south-southwest flow, becoming onshore
near the coast each afternoon. Deep layer moisture remains marginal
enough to keep slight chance to low end chance pops in the forecast
for Sunday and Monday. Models in good agreement that moisture will
be very marginal on Monday as mid/upper level dry layer develops
over the region as the upper ridge builds slightly. Have kept slight
chance pops Monday afternoon, with highest over the southwest/GA
area. A slight increase in moisture is shown by models by Tuesday
with slight to low end chance pops again during the afternoon. Given
lack of upper forcing, main trigger for convection will continue to
be the sea breeze and any low level/outflow boundary interactions.
This time of year can never rule out possibility for isolated
strong/severe storms, but widespread severe storms not expected.
Temperatures will continue above normal with highs in the lower to
mid 90s most areas away from the coast, and lows in the mid to upper
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Little change in the weather pattern expected through late week,
with the primary surface features being Atlantic high pressure and a
weak piedmont trough. Fairly typical summertime PoP scheme, with
shower/thunderstorm coverage peaking in the afternoon and evening
when instability is greatest. No more than 20-30% chances warranted
at this time. Temperatures forecast to be above normal through the
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. Isolated afternoon convection may be possible along the sea
breeze/coastal corridor again sunday afternoon.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR expected to prevail both sites through
much of the week. Only brief flight restrictions possible each afternoon
with isolated showers/thunderstorms.
Tonight: Low-level winds will veer to the southwest overnight as
high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Speeds will increase
to 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.
Sunday through Thursday: No highlights expected through the
period. Atlantic high pressure will prevail with south-southeast
winds through Monday, veering to south-southwest Tuesday through
Thursday. Winds will be 15 knots or less and seas generally 3 feet
or less. Isolated to scattered mainly late night through morning
showers and thunderstorms each day.