Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 281453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING AS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN
ONE INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT
ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS/RJB






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