Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 030307
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1107 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE LAST OF THE RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN FORCING
WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION EXITING LANCASTER CO AT 03Z. WANING LG
SCALE FORCING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING JET STREAK SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT TO JUST A BIT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE S TIER
COUNTIES...WHERE SFC-2KM MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HAVE ZEROED OUT
THE POPS FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...WHERE
DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT...RANGING
FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE
PTCLDY...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE OVERCAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS CENTERED OVER S QUEBEC
SHOULD PROVIDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA A PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER
DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE S TIER COUNTIES WITH OVERCAST/COOL
CONDS. LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING INDICATED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC
CONV FIELDS. THUS...EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY -DZ
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH...WHERE PT-MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS STILL WELL BLW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVER THE SE...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CENTRAL MTNS WILL
SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH VFR IN THE NW MTNS.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT NE/E WINDS CONTINUE. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
NRN PA...AND BRADFORD WILL CONTINUE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR POSS SOME LIGHT FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUD CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
AREA OF IFR CIGS COVERING SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA. VSBYS WILL ALSO
BE REDUCED TO 3-5SM.

SOME IMPROVEMENT MID MORNING WED...AS CIGS RISE THROUGH MVFR BACK
TO VFR IN MOST LOCALES. BUT A DEVELOPING S-SE MARITIME FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF QUITE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...


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