Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 120755
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...DELIVERING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND. THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
ROUND OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATL/RADAR COMPOSITE AT 07Z SHOWING LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
STRATOCU/FLURRIES ACROSS THE N MTNS. BACKING BLYR FLOW SHOULD CAUSE
SKIES TO CLEAR OVER THE N MTNS BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH. LIGHT WIND...MCLEAR
SKIES AND SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEYS PROBABLY DIPPING JUST BLW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD
OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER /GENERALLY UNDER 1/2
INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL OVER BUT THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THEM TO THE
UPPER TEENS.

ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE FRI EVENING IN
THE NW...AND OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RTS AND STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD
SUPPORT A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG FRONT. BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDS
WILL LIKELY CREATE TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS FRI EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 00Z-03Z SAT...WHERE
MDLS INDICATE A BIT OF CAPE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER PER LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. 00Z NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THE
HEAVIEST SQUALLS WILL FALL OVR THE N MTNS...CLOSEST PATH OF
SHORTWAVE.

WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F
BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.

POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA SAT-
SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A WIND
CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
REACHING -25F WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET
IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. THE
11/12Z OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS ON THE WWD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GEFS. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE BOTH
TRENDED WWD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
PTYPES BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THE LKLY RANGE
FOR DAY 5.5-6 /MON NGT-TUESDAY/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING ARE
CONFINED NEAR LAKE ERIE SHORE...BUT SCT CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST
IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MAJORITY OF THE REGION BEFORE RESTRICTIONS
RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS...WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW
SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW IN THE SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR


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