Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301915
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS


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