Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 250954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
554 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Weather systems will impact Central Pennsylvania on Thursday and
over the weekend before conditions dry out to end the month. Rain
arriving early Thursday morning may start or mix with snow over
the northern tier. Temperatures should average near to slightly
below normal with some moderation likely into early November.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Residual stratocu with a few lake effect showers over the NW
Alleghenies should give way to decreasing winds and clearing
skies tonight as high pressure moves into the area. Upgraded to
freeze warning tonight which will likely end the growing season.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surge of WAA pcpn ahead of low pressure tracking through the OH
Valley should overspread most of the area early Thursday. Have
increased POPs to near 100 percent based on multi-model consensus
and NMB output. As the WAA pcpn encounters a retreating cold
sector associated with departing high pressure, a period snow or
rain/snow mix may be likely at the onset over northern PA. Confidence
in early-season accumulations is low with the greatest risk over
the highest elevations. Timing would be favorable during the late
night and early morning hours. Despite QPF amounts in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range, limited gridded snowfall to less than 0.5 inch
given marginal boundary layer profiles and surface temperatures.
Steadier rain should taper to rain/snow showers Thursday night on
the backside of the low. Northwest winds should also increase as
the low deepens into New England.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period start off dry with odds of wet weather increasing by
later in the weekend. The models show a decent spread with the
timing/track of the next area of low pressure moving from the
Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes. Therefore stayed close to a
consensus blend which favored Sunday over Saturday with the period
of max POPs. Another dry period will likely follow the weekend
system with signs of a warming trend into the first week of November.
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture flowing off of Lk Erie will continue to produce a varying
amount of stratocu across Central PA into this morning with the
most persistent cloudiness and lowest cigs across the higher
terrain from KBFD south to KIPT. Also due to this moisture, MVFR
cigs have developed at BFD as well as scattered rain showers. Both
of those should persist through the morning, before the flow
weakens and shifts by early afternoon.
Today should be similar to Monday, as the flow changes little in
direction but does get a little lighter. Diurnal heating and
resulting mixing within deepening boundary layer will cause cigs
to rise during the day, with widespread VFR conditions through the
Wed...Patchy AM fog possible.
Thu...Rain/low cigs possible.
Fri...AM showers/low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...Showers/MVFR CIGS possible NW Mtns.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028-