Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 060949
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TODAY AND PUSH
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS...ACCOMPANIED BY
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NICE RESPITE FROM RECENT STORMMINESS...DESPITE THE COLD. ARCTIC
HIGH OVER SOUTWHEST PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RADIATING
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO
NORTHWEST...AND UPDATED FOR SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO READINGS
THERE BEFORE DAWN. NO WIND...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND CHILL
CONCERNS EARLY TODAY...JUST A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

NEARLY FULL SUN IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...BUT MAY STILL
SEE SOME STRATOCU LINGERING IN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR THE
ALLEGENY CREST. LACK OF MIXING WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A WARM
UP...WITH HIGHS STILL MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND ACTUAL READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE MID 20S LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK LOW
TRANSLATES INTO THE NORTHERN GLAKS BY 12Z SAT. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GLAKS THIS
EVENING...SPREADING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...BUT WAA INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS MAY BRING A
COATING TO UP TO AN INCH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND
SHIFT...AND EXPECT COLDEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN
THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY TO 10 TO 15F NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE
A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON
ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
CLIMATE...


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