Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 301123
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)

Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Today...Well pronounced ridging aloft looks to keep our weather dry
today with weak subsidence aloft and limited low and mid level
moisture. High temperatures somewhat similar to yesterday based on
thicknesses and 700 mb temperatures.

Tonight/Wednesday...Another clear and cool overnight aside from
some fog development over our southeast counties. Despite low level
southeast upslope, minimal shower and thunderstorm chances due to
limited lift and limited low and mid level moisture availability. A
little bit cooler Wednesday per thickness and 700 mb temperature
trends.

Wednesday night/Thursday...More widespread low clouds and fog look
to form across western Nebraska per boundary layer progs. With the
flow aloft becoming southwest, expect a slight increase in low and
mid level moisture, adding to isolated late day thunderstorms over
and near the mountains. Temperatures Thursday a bit warmer per
thickness and 700 mb temperature trends.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Guidance continues to show unsettled weather in the long term.
Ridge axis well off to the east with southwest winds becoming
stronger Thursday night and especially Friday. 700mb winds up to
30-35kts across southeast Wyoming. 850mb winds in the Panhandle
45-50kts. Could be looking at some wind headlines out there in the
Panhandle as advisory level winds definitely a possibility.

This is due to low pressure system tracking across Montana into
Saturday. Cold front associated with the low does not move through
until Saturday night. Afternoon humidities could be critical
across Converse/Niobrara and Carbon Counties Friday and Saturday,
so fire headlines also a possibility. If guidance continues to
show strong winds tomorrow, will be needing a Fire Weather Watch.

Good upslope behind the front for Sunday with a 90kt 250mb jet
moving into the area. Could be a pretty decent severe thunderstorm
event somewhere in the Plains Sunday. GFS showing thunderstorms
further west into our CWFA while the ECMWF showing convection out
over central Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

VFR conditions prevail for the 12Z TAFs. May start to see a
change though as low level moisture begins to increase across the
southern Nebraska Panhandle tonight night and continues into
Wednesday. Latest SREF guidance showing widespread IFR/LIFR from
this upslope moisture Wednesday morning. Did add IFR/LIFR
conditions after 06Z for KAIA, KSNY and KBFF as they are the most
likely areas right now. May need to add KCYS as we closer to the
event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Minimal concerns the next few days based on
projected humidities and winds. Concerns will increase later this
week with increasing southwest flow aloft producing increasing winds
and lower afternoon humidities.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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