Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH






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