162
FXUS63 KEAX 052103
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for severe thunderstorms late Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will be the main concern, with
  large hail and a few tornadoes possible.

- Heavy rainfall amounts up to 1.5" possible with Monday storms.
  There is a chance for locally higher amounts especially for
  northwestern parts of Missouri. This could lead to additional
  flash flooding and river flooding concerns.

- Severe potential returns on Wednesday with large hail and
  damaging winds being the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

There is a shortwave trough to the southwest over the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Flow over the region is currently from the
southwest. At the lower levels, increased instability has lead to
some remnant, intermittent showers still lingering in eastern
Kansas/western Missouri. These showers are slowly moving
north and are expected to dissipate around 20Z.

Early Monday, there is a trough over the Nevada/Washington,Idaho
border expected to enter central CONUS. As it begins to move over
the Great Plains region, it becomes more negatively-tilted. After
12Z Monday, it begins to take a more northerly track as it moves
over western Nebraska. At the lower levels, our region enters the
warm sector of the associated surface warm front late Monday morning
as winds shift to the south. Warm, moist air advecting from the Gulf
will allow temperatures to warm and dew points to reach the low to
mid 60s. CAPE values are expected to range from 1,000-1,500 J/kg
with bulk shear exceeding 40 knots which will provide a decent
environment for strong to severe storms to develop. Thunderstorms
are forecasted to develop in central Kansas Monday afternoon. As
they evolve, storms are expected to move into our region late Monday
evening into early morning Tuesday. The dry line to our west will be
overrun by the surface cold front late Monday evening which suggests
a likely potential for a linear convective mode as thunderstorms
develop along the cold front. All hazards will be possible with
these storms including damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. With PWATs surpassing 1.5", rainfall amounts may surpass
an inch with Monday storms. There is a chance for locally higher
amounts especially for northwestern parts of Missouri. This could
lead to additional flash flooding and river flooding concerns. SPC
agrees that the stronger severe threat may stay to our west as they
have placed our region in a slight risk for Day 2 with an enhanced
risk over eastern Kansas.

Early Tuesday morning the storms will continue to move east with the
boundary and exit the area. Winds will briefly shift to the west
with the passing frontal boundary resulting in high temperatures
staying in the mid 70s to low 80s. The trough will continue to push
north and stagnate over eastern Montana.

Wednesday the trough over Montana will then begin to track southeast
and then split into two separate shortwaves. The easterly
shortwave moves through the flow with an upper level jet streak
rounding the base of the trough axis while the westerly
shortwave begins to round the west coast into Arizona. At the
surface, the surface low passes to the north of the area with
the associated surface cold front overrunning the dry line late
Wednesday evening. Southerly winds out ahead of the cold front
will allow for increased warm, moist air from the Gulf resulting
in dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Thunderstorms
are forecasted to initiate late Wednesday evening and move
easterly in a line along the frontal boundary. CAPE values
surpassing 1,000 J/kg and low level lapse rates above 8 degrees
C/km suggest ample instability for storm formation. There is
plenty of shear with bulk shear values in excess of 50 knots
which will help with storm organization. Strong to severe storms
may be possible with damaging winds and large hail being the
main threats. Some uncertainty lies with higher instability
remaining to the southeast of the region. This suggests the
stronger storms will be to our southeast, but we will continue
to monitor this system as the time draws near.

Going into the second half of the week, conditions should remain
fairly dry with chances for some light precipitation Thursday
afternoon and Saturday evening. High temperatures are expected to
remain around the upper 60s to mid 70s into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain for majority of the TAF
period. Intermittent, light rain may continue for an hour or two for
terminals south of I-70. Cloud coverage is expected to increase
later tonight after 02Z. Early tomorrow morning there is a chance
for some MVFR ceilings, but left out of TAFs due to uncertainty in
timing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier