Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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364
FXUS63 KEAX 062300
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Deep ridge within an omega pattern will begin to break down tonight,
allowing a cold front to drop in from the north overnight. This
feature will reach far northern Missouri later Saturday morning where
it will stall out. A few showers or storms are possible along the
front Saturday morning, particularly over far northwest Missouri
where a low-level jet will feed into this feature. However, ridging
will leave a moisture- starved airmass ahead of the front and make it
difficult to get much more than an isolated shower or two. Any
activity that does develop should dissipate later Saturday morning as
the forcing from the LLJ is lost, leaving mostly dry conditions
across the area through the remainder of the afternoon.

Precipitation chances will increase again Saturday night into Sunday
as the ridge moves eastward and energy begins to eject eastward ahead
of the deep trough to the west. Highest precipitation chances through
Saturday morning will again be across northern Missouri and northeast
KS in closer proximity to the stalled boundary. This activity will
expand in coverage Sunday evening and overnight when the LLJ will
again surge back into the region and interact with the boundary over
northern Missouri. This could lead to an inch or more of rainfall for
some areas. Better instability and shear will be well to our west
through this time, so most strong to severe storms should be focused
across central KS.

One or more additional rounds of showers and storms will overspread
the region Monday and Tuesday when as the upper trough slowly
progresses eastward. Additional heavy rain is a possibility, as well
as a few strong storms, but details will be highly dependent on how
convection evolves Sunday and Sunday night as well as any small-scale
features embedded in the upper trough. Eventually the boundary will
settle to the south of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
upper flow becomes more quasi- zonal. Can`t rule out a few post-
frontal showers during this time, but this is unlikely to be very
heavy.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast. Winds will
generally be from the southwest at less than 10kts. Only scattered
high cirrus is expected to move into the region in the later half of
the forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB



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