Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 222310

610 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Issued at 331 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

The main feature of interest and driver of weather over the next
couple of days will continue to be an upper level trough. This upper
level trough is evident in water vapor imagery over Wyoming this
afternoon. This upper trough will move into the northern Plains
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this upper level
system will develop across western Kansas today and gradually move
eastward across the state tonight. These showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms may make it into northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri by Tuesday morning so have slight POPs in for
those areas Tuesday. The upper level trough is then progged to stall
over the Plains states on Tuesday. Although the bulk of the
precipitation will remain west of the area, showers and
thunderstorms may hold together long enough to bring a few rounds of
light showers and isolated storms to northwester Missouri and
northeastern Kansas through Tuesday night, Wednesday and even into
Wednesday night before the upper level trough weakens. This trough
by Thursday basically weakens until it becomes completely enveloped
in broad upper ridging over much of the CONUS east of the
Continental Divide. This broad upper ridge then remains in control
over the area through the remainder of the forecast period keeping
the area dry with slight above average temperatures. Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will be near average in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures Thursday through the beginning of next week will run
about 5 degrees above normal with highs mainly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

Not expecting any flight restrictions through the next 24 hours. Mid
level stratus around 10 kft will build in near mid day on Saturday
and may produce some virga, but with very dry air below the cloud
deck expect conditions at the surface to be dry.




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