Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 012334
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
334 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDES DOWN THE
WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW CU OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY TO ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THAT AREA SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE AND PERHAPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES.

A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE S DOWN THE PAC NW COAST TONIGHT AND
MON. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
LAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...WITH MORE FROST POSSIBLE THRU MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
A GRADUAL WARM-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF RIDGING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWING A WELL
PRONOUNCED LOW THAT HAS SANK SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
REALM. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED UNDER FAIR AND SOMEWHAT
COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...A WEAK
(MODEST AT BEST) SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND BRING
A SHORT LIVED THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOSTLY THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS AND OFFSHORE. THE SHORTWAVE`S ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE
MOSTLY LACKING SO TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW WITH MAINLY
LIGHT INTENSITIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY VFR AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE HIGHER LOW CLOUD LEVELS TO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BASES. /TA

&&

.MARINE...AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS THE WATERS ALLOWING
SEAS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP AT 7 TO 9 FEET AT 9 SECONDS. WHILE THIS WAS
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE IN THE
INNER WATERS THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE WINDS AND SEAS ARE A BIT HIGHER. THIS RELATIVE LULL WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS. LIKEWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BEGINNING IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD GALES WILL MATERIALIZE IN
ANY OF THE WATERS...AND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE MARGINAL
END OF GALE STRENGTH EVEN IN THE MOST BULLISH SCENARIO.
THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEADLINES WITH A GALE WATCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW...AS WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY
STRONGER IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO NEAR HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA WAVES.

BEYOND TOMORROW NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD EASE SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW SEAS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH AREA WATERS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT EVEN ON
SOUTH FACING BEACHES.  A SOMEWHAT LARGER WESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO
LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MON FOR CAZ076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM TUE
     FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MON TO 3 AM TUE FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM WED FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WATCH FROM 3 AM MON THRU MON EVENING FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MON FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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