Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 291752
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
88D VAD WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST GATES OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AT THE TWO SAN
ANTONIO TAF SITES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE SUGGESTED FOR DRT
FROM THE KDFX VAD WINDS AND MODEL DATA. VFR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...BUT UPPER 50S DEW POINTS IN
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST A QUICK MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT OVER NW TX IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TX. THE SURFACE FEATURES AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY WOULD SUGGEST IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT AUS AND POSSIBLY
DRT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER VSBYS EXPECTED AT SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  77  61  77 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  78  61  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  78  61  78 /   0   0  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  65  80 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  77  62  78 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  80  61  78 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  62  78  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  79  62  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  79  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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