Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 292326 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
ONLY SCT CONDITIONS VERSES BKN. COULD SEE A ONE OR TWO HOUR PERIOD
WITH MVFR CIGS BUT MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE SCT. SE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z-05Z THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 16Z THU WILL SEE SELY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FOG AT KAUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATION WILL RESULT IN
SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
UNTIL THEN...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVENT HIT 100 YET TO THE CENTURY MARK BUT TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING TRIPLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE
BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOMORROW. WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
PERFORMING AT NEARLY 99 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST
WEEK...RESISTANCE TO USING THESE VALUES WOULD BE FUTILE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE BE MIXING
OUT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES AND REALLY ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE THE STORY...HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...EVEN
OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER
BUT APPRECIABLE SO WHILE STORMS MAY BE ISOLATE IN NATURE...GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS
WELL.

SATURDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
EURO DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM COMPLEX IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS HAS A MUCH DRIER OUTLOOK AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
GENERATION WHICH WOULD KEEP US DRY AFTER SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO A HOT AND DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO RETURN
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  79 100  76 /   0   0  10  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  98  75  99  75 /   0  -   10  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  76 /   0   0  10  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  76 /   0  -   10  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  99  75 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  77 100  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  78  99  77 /   0   0  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  77 100  76 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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