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000
FXUS64 KEWX 110242
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND FAR EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WITH A FEW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE
SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NO LIGHTNING
STRIKES SEEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. ANY REMAINING
INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING WITH SUNSET AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE CLUSTER AREA. DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK
BASED ON 18Z MODEL RUNS AND NEW 00Z NAM. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. -RA/-SHRA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE -RA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCOT TO KHDO TO KERV.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH RAPID CLEARING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE DRY
WESTERLIES ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SE-SLY
THIS EVENING BECOMING SW-WRLY 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO WAS LIFTING ENEWD INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED AREA/MCV
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS TRACKING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING...AS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN MEXICO DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WITH SKIES
CLEARING LATE THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST...THERE
WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WARMER WARMER TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WEST TO UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 EAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES. A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WITH VERY
GUSTY NLY WINDS BLASTS INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE STRONG DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO S TX EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING COOLER-DRIER VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG WIND. MUCH
COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 60 NORTH...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO
CRITICAL CRITERIA.  CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE
LIKELY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW SPOTS IN THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES. A DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TO THE EAST THURSDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS MOIST SLY BREEZES RETURN FROM THE GULF. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY BEFORE LOW
LEVEL GULF HUMIDITY RETURNS AND SLY WINDS RETURN. A SHORT WAVE
DROPPING ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO N TX WILL BRIEFLY PUSH
THE DRY LINE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NERN CWA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU S TX SUNDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER SHARPER SHORT
WAVE...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER.  COOLER DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              54  82  49  65  37 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  80  45  64  33 /  30   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  80  48  64  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  82  43  62  33 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           51  89  52  67  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  79  44  62  34 /  20   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  87  48  69  34 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  79  47  63  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   55  78  50  63  35 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  84  51  67  39 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  85  51  67  38 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32