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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011136 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REMAINING. CEILINGS VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS EVEN UP TO VFR. FOR THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH
LIFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 16Z-18Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSH INTO THE
REGION 18Z-20Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT 21Z AT KAUS AND KDRT THEN
AROUND 23Z FOR KSAT/KSSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY I-35 EAST WERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
KAUS TO COVER THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 02/09Z-12Z...THEN DECREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOG THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HI RES MODELS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AND
VISIBILTIES TRENDING THIS WAS AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE...YESTERDAYS
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH JUST VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY...WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND
21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN DRYING
WEST OF I-35 AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOL
RESIDES. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...
WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUT OFF NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN. HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY. COOL TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE MID LEVEL DRYING...WITH BEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  37  51  37  54 /  30  -    0   0  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  36  51  34  53 /  30  -    0   0  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  38  53  37  52 /  30  10   0   0  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  32  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  41  56  41  52 /  20  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  34  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  39  56  38  51 /  20  10   0   0  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  37  51  36  52 /  30  10   0   0  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  38  50  36  54 /  50  10   0   0  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  39  54  38  52 /  20  10   0   0  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  40  55  39  52 /  20  10   0   0  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76