Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231725 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AND BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST. ALL
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
EASTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 01Z LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. BY 24/16Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AT KAUS WITH TEMPO IFR AT KDRT. WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5-6K AGL
THROUGH MID-EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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