Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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797
FXUS64 KEWX 060903
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TWO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WAS OVER
FAR W TX EARLY THIS AM...AND IT WILL SHIFT EAST TO CENTRAL TX LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED...AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS RETURN TODAY AND INCREASE TO A MUCH TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. VAL VERDE COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY
TONIGHT...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL MORE
ECHOES SHOULD APPEAR ON THE DFX RADAR SATURDAY AS ELEVATED STORMS
CONTINUE AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...SO NO SEVERE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO
HIGHS SATURDAY FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO SHY FROM THOSE TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SCATTERED MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS OUT WEST SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO DEEPER CONVECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY COULD HINDER
SURFACE TEMPS...SO ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODEL RUNS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MULTICELL
CLUSTER OR SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH INTO NORTH TX. THUS THE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WITH MOST MODEL DATA DEPICTING MINIMAL ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TX WHILE A DRYLINE ADVANCES RAPIDLY EAST. DRY-LINE STORMS ARE
SUGGESTED LATE MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-35...BUT WILL KEEP WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP CATEGORIES. AM
NOT SURE DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE
BEFORE DEPARTING INTO EAST TX...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT A
FORMIDABLE DRY PUNCH PUSHING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING. CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT WORDING VAGUE UNTIL
WE CAN SEE A FEW MORE FINER RESOLUTION DATA CLOSER TO MONDAY.

SHALLOW...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST OVER NRN
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A RETREATING DRYLINE AND GOOD TEMPERATURE
MIXING COULD RESULT IN SOME EXPLOSIVE STORMS IF THE ECM/GFS PWAT
VALUES VERIFY. THE BROAD PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS
SLOPPY AND PRONE TO SHORTWAVE TIMING THAT COULD LEAD TO POOR
TIMING OF STORM FORECASTING. WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS AND OTHERWISE NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE BLENDED
GUIDANCES. THE LATEST RUNS SHOW DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS
POOR HERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  61  85  66  84 /   0   0  -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  58  84  65  83 /   0   0  -   10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  85  65  84 /   0   0  -   10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  60  83  65  82 /   0   0  -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  66  89  69  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  83  66  82 /   0   0  -   10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  61  87  66  87 /   0   0  -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  83  65  83 /   0   0  -   10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  83  65  83 /   0   0  -    0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  62  85  66  84 /   0   0  -   10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  87  66  86 /   0   0  -   10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS



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