Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 040542 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CIGS/VBSYS ARE AT IFR CATEGORY BUT NOT FOR LONG. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WIND DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. ALSO...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99


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