Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272018
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
318 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled flash flood watch for all areas, except Fayette and
Lavaca counties where heavy rains continued.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface boundary from earlier showers and thunderstorms continues
to drift to the southwest and extends from Harper to New Braunfels
to Schulenburg. A surface dryline extends from Harper to Carrizo
Springs. Drier air aloft is spreading east of the surface dryline
making for more stable air along the I-35 corridor. The cluster of
showers and thunderstorms has shifted to the east as the drier air
filters in and is now over Fayette and Lavaca counties. Heavy rain
and additional flooding can be expected in these areas for the
next couple of hours or so. River and stream flooding persists
northwest of this cluster. Will maintain Flash Flood Watch until
expiration at 6 PM CDT. Cannot rule a shower or thunderstorm east
of the dryline this evening. An upper level trough moves away from
Texas and along with drier air aloft makes for a lull in rains
overnight. Deeper moisture returns to all areas on Saturday due to
stronger southeasterly lower level flow. Showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop with the best chances over the Rio Grande Plains
into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible with the cluster and Saturday afternoon into evening due
moderate CAPE and shear.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Friday. Higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms return for mid to late week as an upper level low
and a surface boundary develop over Texas with deeper moisture.
This may bring a threat for heavy rains and flooding. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  73  89  73  88 /  90  20  30  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  73  89  74  87 /  90  20  30  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  90  73  88 /  50  20  30  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            79  70  89  72  86 /  70  20  30  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  70  91  74  90 /  10  10  40  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  72  89  73  86 /  90  20  30  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             92  71  91  74  89 /  30  10  30  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  73  89  73  87 /  70  20  30  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  75  89  75  88 /  80  20  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  74  90  75  88 /  40  20  30  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           93  75  91  75  89 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Fayette...Lavaca.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...30


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