Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 272107
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
307 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
No major highlights through the short-term as well-above normal
temperatures are ongoing this afternoon and even warmer temperatures
expected tomorrow after early morning clouds and areas of fog.
Clouds continue to mix out across the region with most locations
reaching into the mid 70s to low 80s as weak zonal to slightly
southwest flow continues. Surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s west
to mid 60s east and this low-level moisture along with cooling this
evening will aid in abundant low clouds and patchy fog once again.
Dewpoint depressions are projected to be near or less than a degree
Tuesday morning and this could support localized patchy dense fog
with widespread areas of fog. Have also added patchy light drizzle
from 4am to 10am given the near-surface saturation.
After diurnal mixing occurs and clouds break apart, H925 temps are
expected to be slightly warmer Tuesday then today per BUFR soundings
and thus higher surface temperatures are anticipated. Some areas will
be nearly 20F degrees above normal for this time of year. Austin
could approach its record of 87F set back in 1978.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A stronger shortwave trough will shift across the central CONUS
Wednesday and bring a mostly dry cool front through the region.
Temperatures will fall back to near normal through the end of the
week. Rain chances will increase going into Friday and the weekend as
a slow moving cut-off low and associated disturbances shift towards
A sharper trough axis currently off the California coast will shift
across north Texas by late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This
trough passage and stronger surface high pressure will aid in
northern airmass infiltration and temperatures Wednesday will be
tempered down about 10-15F degrees from Tuesday`s highs with north
winds. Given the timing of the front and lack of deeper forcing, only
light showers (if that) are expected along the front as it shifts
through the region by mid to late morning.
Thursday will be a dry and clear day behind the front and likely the
coolest morning with some sporadic mid 30s in the Hill Country. No
freezing temperatures are expected at this time.
By Friday and into the weekend - a slowly moving cut-off low is
expected to shift across north Mexico towards central or south
Texas. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that a potential ejecting
shortwave trough will occur ahead of the main parent low Saturday as
moisture return commences back from the Gulf of Mexico. While there
may be some pockets of heavy rain, overall moisture return pattern
may remain better farther south that could favor any concentrated
heavy rain threat. As the parent low nears south Texas on Sunday, it
appears to open up and slowly weaken. Have a persistence of 30-50%
rain shower coverage across the southern 2/3rd of south-central
Texas given this pattern through the day Sunday. Models disagree in
the long range on Monday if a stronger northern-stream trough can
bring a front down into the region just following the exit of the
weakening cut-off low. Have kept low-end rain chances in given the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 86 61 70 44 / 10 20 20 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 86 62 70 43 / 10 20 20 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 87 62 72 44 / 10 20 20 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 62 82 56 65 39 / 10 20 20 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 59 88 58 76 45 / - - - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 64 84 59 67 41 / 10 20 20 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 63 89 59 77 43 / 10 10 10 - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 87 62 71 43 / 10 20 20 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 85 65 71 44 / 10 20 20 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 66 87 62 73 45 / 10 20 20 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 66 87 63 74 46 / 10 20 10 10 0
Public Service/Data Collection...33