Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 260604 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
104 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Please see the 06Z aviation forecast discussion below.
High clouds continue to clear from west to east across south
central Texas early this morning. As clouds clear, we expect
stratus development beginning in the 10Z-11Z time frame. Cigs will
likely develop within the IFR range and remain intact through
roughly 16Z at all TAF sites. With the onset of daytime heating
and mixing, cigs will increase to MVFR between 16Z-18Z, then into
VFR after 18Z along I-35. Cigs may lift a couple hours earlier at
DRT given moisture should fairly shallow.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
A shortwave trough can be seen on water vapor imagery moving
through West Texas. A piece of this energy is farther south than
what was expected yesterday and the previous forecast mentioned
isolated showers across the western counties this afternoon to
account for this lift. Not much has formed and high-res models do
not show anything really forming after 00z and will not include
the mention of precip in the western counties for tonight. The 12z
DRT sounding showed very little moisture and instability in the
mid-levels which is not conducive for shower development. There
were areas of dense fog this morning along and east of I-35.
Patchy fog will once again be possible tomorrow morning but
forecast soundings show more mixing overnight which would favor
low clouds versus fog. Therefore, any dense fog should be less
widespread. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the lower
to middle 60s. Any fog will dissipate after the mid to late
morning hours with partly cloudy skies continuing. High
temperatures will top out in the lower to upper 80s across the
region. Much of the same can be expected Wednesday night with
conditions similar to tonight.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Upper level high pressure will be building just west of the area
by Thursday which will ensure continued dry weather for the
extended forecast. Temperatures in the long-term will remain in
the lower to upper 80s for highs and 60s for lows across the
region . This is about 5 degrees above normals for this time of
the year. Medium range guidance does show the ridge breaking down
by early next week with a weakness in the height fields over
South-Central Texas on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring a small
chance of rain to the Coastal Plains on Monday and to much of the
eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday. Rain chances will be only 20
to 30 percent at most and not expecting any abnormally heavy
rainfall. There are no signs of any significant fronts in the
extended forecast as well.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 86 63 86 61 86 / - - 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 61 85 59 85 / - - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 62 87 60 86 / - - 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 83 62 83 60 83 / - - 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 84 65 84 62 84 / - - 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 84 62 85 60 85 / - - 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 86 62 87 59 87 / - - 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 62 84 60 84 / - - 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 61 85 61 86 / - - 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 84 64 85 61 84 / - - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 86 63 86 61 86 / - - 0 0 0