Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 242325
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
525 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
The main story for this TAF period will be a weak Pacific front
moving across the terminals and turning the southerly winds more
north and northwesterly. The timing of the front is around 03z at DRT
and 06-08z at the I-35 terminals (AUS/SAT/SSF). While no ceiling
restrictions are expected at SAT/SSF/DRT with VFR conditions lasting
through the period, there is a small window where some MVFR cigs will
be possible ahead of the front at AUS due to the southerly flow and
moisture pooling ahead of the front. Any low or mid height cigs
should rise quickly behind the front as drier air works into Central
Texas. Winds behind the front will become gusty during the day on
Wednesday with some gusts up to 20 knots at the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Record highs are set to be tied or broken in Austin this afternoon
with San Antonio likely coming within a few degrees of their
record. These readings are nearly 20 degree above normal but a
pattern change will occur overnight as a cold front moves through the
region. Only very light rain showers are expected across the far
east Texas coastal plains.

As expected, temperatures have pushed into the upper 70s and low 80s
this afternoon with only a scattered semi-opaque overspreading
cirrus. The cirrus could cause just enough insolation blockage not to
allow San Antonio to reach its record high that stands at 85F. H925
temperatures range from 17C in the far east coastal plains to near
24C in the west this afternoon. A diffuse Pacific cold front is
currently analyzed across west Texas and this will push southward
through early Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front however, enough
low-level moisture combined with overnight cooling should allow for
a brief period of low cloud development from I-35 corridor eastward
from 10pm to 4am. The front should move through the region by dawn
with clouds clearing by that time. Light showers/drizzle could occur
across the far east coastal plains towards Houston during this same
time-frame but accumulation is expected be only a few hundredths at
best with most areas receiving nothing.

H925 temperatures will fall into the 13-15C range Wednesday afternoon
thus surface temperatures will fall into the mid 60s north to mid
70s south. Values will still remain above normal but it will feel
cooler compared to today as high clouds continue to stream overhead.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

No major highlights in the long term outside of a light freeze
possible Thursday morning across the Hill Country and increasing rain
chances for the Rio Grande Plains on Saturday ahead of another
frontal passage.

A reinforcing colder airmass will shift into the region behind the
initial weak Pacific front late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. H925 temperatures will fall to 4-10C by Thursday morning and
this will support a light freeze across the higher elevations of the
Hill Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor. Near
similar conditions are expected Friday with the area under zonal
flow. PWATs will slightly increase as south winds advect moisture
northward late Friday and Saturday ahead of coupled west to east
oriented trough axis over the southern CONUS. The best moisture
advection will be across western areas in the Rio Grande plains and a
20-40% chance of showers will exist Saturday along and ahead of a
cold front. Multi-model guidance indicates the front will push south
of the region through Sunday morning. The trough axis will shift
south of the region and cut-off over Mexico by late weekend into
early next week. ECMWF has brought the cut-off low farther north into
early next week that may aid more clouds and some rain chances while
the GFS keeps the cut-off low farther south and ejecting to the
Gulf. Have continued the drier forecast in the long term for now
until more signals suggest the ECMWF is viable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  54  69  39  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  53  69  38  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  54  70  39  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            82  48  64  34  58 /   0  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  51  69  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  51  66  35  58 /   0  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  51  73  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  54  70  39  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  57  69  40  60 /   0  20  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  54  71  40  63 /   0  -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  55  72  41  64 /   0  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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