Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 070830
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  76  93  75  92 /  20  -    0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  75  92  74  92 /  20   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  74  92  74  92 /  10  -    0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  74  91  73  92 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           94  77  95  76  95 /  20  20  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  75  92  73  92 /  20  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  93  73  93 /  -   10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  92  74  91 /  10  -    0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  76  92  75  91 /  20  -    0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  93  75  92 /  -   -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  74  92 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN



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