Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250823
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.

TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.


NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AL. THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE HAD TO ADD PRECIP TO
THE TAF. AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH AND A TEMPO GROUP. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE
TEMPO GROUP IN FURTHER AMD IF LINE DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  52  82  57 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         77  53  81  60 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     70  45  78  49 /  40  10   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  50  83  54 /  30   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        81  57  85  60 /  20   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     75  50  80  57 /  30   5   0   5
MACON           83  55  83  56 /  20   0   0   0
ROME            76  49  83  53 /  30   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  51  82  54 /  20   0   0   0
VIDALIA         84  61  84  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





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