Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261743 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 14Z. HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE NO MORE THAN THAT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO START THE SHORT TERM
WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ONLY VARYING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY AT DAYS
END. PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH NO INSTABILITY
FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY AND OVER THE WEST
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY USING A MODEL BLEND.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGING THE FIRST
WAVE OF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...THEN A SECOND WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME MUCAPE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL THEREFORE ADD ISOLATED TSRA TO SUNDAYS GRIDS. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE INDICATING 1.50 TO 1.75 ACROSS NORTHWEST GA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FEW RIVERS/CREEKS BACK INTO FLOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY AIR OVER THE CWA BEGINNING IN THE
WEST ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THE SR SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ON THIS RUN OF THE MODELS THE SHORT WAVE HAS
NOW BEEN DELAYED BY ONE DAY. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE
MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORIES.

WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...HOWEVER AS THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BEHIND THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID WEEK WITH A WARM-UP TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD... WITH
MAINLY VARYING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT-EARLY SAT... THEN LOWERING TO MID
LEVELS CIGS SOMETIME SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG
AGAIN EARLY SAT MORNING UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A
FACTOR AT ATL. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT... THEN BECOME MORE SE SAT AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ON SAT 7KTS OR
LESS. /39

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  36  59  49 /   0   0  50  80
ATLANTA         59  41  60  52 /   0   0  60  80
BLAIRSVILLE     58  33  58  46 /   0   0  30  90
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  57  50 /   0   0  60  90
COLUMBUS        59  41  61  55 /   0   0  60  70
GAINESVILLE     57  39  57  49 /   0   0  50  90
MACON           61  39  64  53 /   0   0  50  60
ROME            57  35  57  50 /   0   0  60  90
PEACHTREE CITY  60  37  60  51 /   0   0  60  80
VIDALIA         64  45  65  55 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL/DD
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...DD


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