Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 290858
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER
RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WELLING
UP UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVING ENOUGH
FORCING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PUSHES THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A LACK OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT A
HEAD AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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