Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 250255
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
855 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
9 PM UPDATE:

West wind has relaxed enough over the region to expire the rest of
the high wind warning, and leave a lake wind advisory in it`s
place until tomorrow at 9 pm. Otherwise had to adjust weather/PoP
elements for the showers hanging on over the far eastern areas.
Was able to expire the fire weather highlights as wind and rh have
gone above highlight levels. Did increase PoP and weather coverage
with the low from Saskatchewan pushing clouds and showers down
through the province and should arrive in the northwestern areas
overnight.   Proton

7 PM UPDATE:

Did trim back the high wind warning to only Phillips county
through 9 PM. Atmosphere remains well mixed and gusts in the 50s
continue for Phillips county. Breezy elsewhere however magnitudes
have come down to the level at gusts to 58 mph are highly unlikely
for Valley, Garfield and Petroleum counties. Had to work on
relative humidity, temperatures and wind with the current update
to bring them around to current conditions. Adjusted hazards to
bring in the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck, extend the Red
Flag and trim down the high wind. Next update expected at 9 PM.
Proton

Previous Discussion:

Current strong/gusty wind event continues through northeast
Montana. Cold front now draped over the last eastern tier of
counties. Attendant rain showers and thunderstorms have been
somewhat scattered, but also fairly well organized, especially
during the afternoon hours.

Unfortunately, the stronger winds we anticipated have not yet
materialized down to the surface today. Occasional winds on the
order of 40 mph gusting to 50 mph - maybe a bit higher - are the
highest we have been able to realize today. This afternoon, we may
still be able to see some sustained wind observations at 40 mph or
greater for a period of 3 hours - maybe at the Malta South US-191
DOT site.

Tonight: As the front pushes into western North Dakota, the
chances for strong winds diminish in this post-frontal regime. The
mid and upper-level support dies off and we are left with some
breezy NW winds. As the High Wind Warning comes to an end, a Lake
Wind Advisory will be needed, possibly for quite a while.

Thursday through Friday: Cooler temperatures and a few isolated rain
showers are expected from the NW with this colder air mass in
control.

BMickelson


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

Update: The forecast as described below stands. The only tweak
made was a gentle nudge toward the latest model consensus.
Gilchrist

Previous discussion: An upper low situated over southern
Saskatchewan Thursday night will shift southeast toward the Upper
Midwest over the weekend. Northeast Montana will be under the
influence of this weather feature through at least this time with
cool weather conditions with the associated lower 500mb heights.
As the closed low tracks by the area expect isolated to widely
scattered chances for showers for portions of the CWA over the
weekend.

Low pressure will push further downstream of the region in the
upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes established over Montana.
The ridge axis will likely reach eastern Montana around Thursday
or Friday per 00z model guidance. This pattern will lead to
largely dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures. In fact,
current indications suggest that highs will return to the 70s by
the midweek. Maliawco


&&

.AVIATION...

Highlight: Strong Winds

Flight category: VFR with ISOL MVFR Thursday AFT 14Z.

Synopsis: A cold front has moved to the North Dakota border late
this afternoon. An attached low over west central Saskatchewan
will continue to slowly sink south and then on Thursday move to
the northeast across the province. This system will keep winds
strong from the west to northwest and lower cigs on Thursday for
the TAF locations.

Wind: West to Northwest 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 35 kts.

Wx: Very ISOL SHRA on Thursday.

Proton



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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