Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 230327
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
927 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...

EVENING UPDATE:
Changes to grids were few. Wind speeds were decreased slightly
over the next 6 hours when starting from RTMA data. Sky coverage
was updated to latest model feeds for that same time.

Main concerns, however were the poor RH recoveries from the
last few night and a lower than predicted bias for RH overall.
With this in place needed to extend the Red Flag over the
southwestern zones of Garfield and Petroleum county. When
considering the RH will drop pretty low and possibly even lower
than expected tomorrow, further extended the Red Flag through the
Afternoon and expanded it to the northwestern and southeastern
zones from 9AM and to 9PM. With the Lodgepole Complex being
completely uncontained the Dense Smoke Adviosry was extended
another 24 hours over Garfield county with the thought of it going
much longer into the week with future updates. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:
Northeast Montana occupies a position between an upper ridge to
the west and a short-wave trough to the east. This brought dry
and gusty northwest winds to the area today. Due to the continued
warm temperatures and low relative humidity, the Red Flag Warning
was continued today until mid-evening for areas south of the
Missouri River. The Garfield & Petroleum Counties fires remain
active. This can easily be seen with GOES-16 as smoke spreads to
the south.

An upper-level ridge shifts east across Montana tonight and
Sunday. This will increase heights and drive temperatures back to
above normal - into the mid 90s. A large surface high over the
Dakotas will generate light surface wind from the south. The
overall effect will be enhanced fire weather conditions due to the
low relative humidity, but with light wind, no headlines for
Sunday are planned for now.

Sunday night and Monday, an energetic low pressure system zips
east across the prairie provinces, sending a cold front south over
the local area. This could generate nocturnal scattered rain
showers and isolated thunder over the region. Then by Monday
afternoon, northwest wind will once again become gusty to again
elevate fire weather concerns. However relative humidity will be
higher due to temperatures returning to seasonal norms. Gusty wind
could also require a wind advisory for Fort Peck Lake.

Templer


.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
The going forecast is spot on. No changes worth noting were made
to the going forecast.


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
The latest 00z models continue with a closed low tracking across
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan with a southward extending dry
cold front through western Montana Sunday evening. This frontal
passage will take place late Sunday night and early Monday morning
across the CWA. Gusty northwest winds will follow into the day on
Monday. As a result of these shifting/gusty winds and continued
low relative humidity, fire weather concerns will likely continue
through at least this period.

An upper ridge looks to build across the western U.S. and amplify
into eastern Montana and adjacent Southern Canada for the second
half of next week. This pattern will lead to gradually warming
temperatures and highs by Friday could once again return to
the upper 80s to low 90s. Maliawco


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure at the surface and aloft will make for
clear skies and good flying weather over the next 24 hours.

HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE: With temperatures approaching the upper
90s to near 100, takeoff may take longer than expected Sunday.

WIND: Veering to northeast to east and calming to less than 10
kts tonight, further veering to the south tonight, backing to the
southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 kts Sunday evening.

Gilchrist/GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
MTZ122-134-135.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for MTZ136-137.

Dense Smoke Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for Garfield.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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