Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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538
FXUS65 KGGW 140948
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AT TIMES. THE FIRST WAVE TODAY
WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
GIVE MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA A DRY AND MILD DAY. WILL LIMIT
CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SW ZONES.

THE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MOSTLY
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST ZONES MAY SEE NO PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THERE. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THAT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT. WILL SEE SOME OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW) AS
850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO CELSIUS NEAR THE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNING. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH A LARGE BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND
RIDGES FOLLOWING IT FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. TO
THE NORTH ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER THE CANADIAN
TERRITORIES AND THUS FAR WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST DUE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANTICIPATED THE SYNOPTIC RIDGE
TO HAVE THE MOST CONTROL OVER THE AREA DURING THESE TIME PERIODS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FIRST SHORTWAVE IS TIMED TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARM MOST OF THE PASSAGE
SHOULD BE RAIN... HOWEVER SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE FOR THIS
EVENT. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MODEL BREAKDOWN OCCURS HERE. FUTURE RUNS
MAY EASILY CHANGE TIMINGS OF ANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES. HOWEVER... ALL
INCOMING WAVES APPEAR TO BE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AND SHOULD BE WARMER
WITH THE ARCTIC REMAINING BOTTLED UP DURING THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: A BRIEF CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A STORMS SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED VFR CONDITIONS AND
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE CYCLE.

SURFACE WIND: WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15KTS TODAY... CALMING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER SUNDOWN.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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