


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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258 FXUS65 KGJT 151738 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1138 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures remain status quo through the seven- day forecast though a slight downward trend is expected after midweek. - Outflow winds...lightning and storms with little rainfall remain threats through midweek. - The trend for increased moisture by the end of the week continues to boost confidence that storms will transition from dry to wet. Storm coverage should increase as a result of the moisture as well from late week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 334 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Satellite imagery shows the high pressure that models place over the Desert Southwest centered on western Arizona has developed farther north about 75 miles south-southeast of Ely NV as a well defined anticyclonic flow with weak disturbances rotating around it. One of these disturbances is moving into northern Utah producing an area of scattered light showers that will push southeast through northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado through the morning hours. High res models have picked up on this signal supporting this convective activity with showers changing over to thunderstorms by noon due to diurnal heating. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms rapidly spread across much of the higher terrain of eastern Utah and Western Colorado through the afternoon with the southern mountains continuing to be favored with moisture moving up from the southwest. Concerns remain localized areas of near critical fire weather conditions with temperatures remaining five degrees above normal, very dry lower layers of the atmosphere and breezy west winds. Additionally, the convective activity will produce areas of dry lightning favoring the northern and central mountains, and all of these storms will be capable of producing outflow gusts over 50 mph due to the dry lower layers. 30% chances for wetting rain remains limited mostly to the Uinta Mountains in eastern Utah the the San Juan Mountains in southern Colorado. Look for these storms to diminish through the evening hours with a few isolated showers continuing through Tuesday night. The weak monsoonal pattern will continue to pull moisture north out of Mexico through the Desert Southwest and into the region overnight Tuesday improving chances for wetting rain Wednesday into the latter half of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 337 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is progged to pass through Montana and Wyoming to the north which will work to flatten the upper-level heights locally. In the zonal upper-level flow north of I-70, PWATs rise to 125-150% of normal leading to higher chances of afternoon convection over the high terrain north of I-70. In the meantime, the southern moisture feed continues to advect enough moisture northward along the Divide for another round of afternoon convection over the San Juans. High pressure builds once more on Thursday another round of afternoon showers and storms, especially over the southern mountains. With a southwesterly flow pattern setting up aloft, moisture advection begins to intensify. Most of that moisture arrives to the local area on Friday leading to more numerous showers and storms across eastern Utah and western Colorado by the afternoon hours. There remains a lot of uncertainty for how effective these showers and storms will be at producing wetting rains as it will likely take some time to saturate the lower levels and there`s also are notable differences in moisture between the global ensembles. With above-normal PWATs remaining in place through the weekend, afternoon/evening showers and storm chances persist. With increasing moisture and cloud cover, high temperatures begin a steady decline towards more seasonable temperatures by the time the weekend arrives. However, this will also prevent nighttime temperatures from cooling off as much. Lows are projected to be 5-10 degrees above normal through much of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main impact will be wind gusts of 30-50 mph mainly in the late afternoon into the evening. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...DB