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000
FXUS65 KGJT 101711
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

SHIFTING GEARS WITH TONIGHT`S SYSTEM. IN COORDINATION WITH
BOU...PUB AND SLC WILL BE DECREASING AND SLOWING DOWN THE PRECIP
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NE UT
A BIT BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST LATE. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING BUT WILL LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHOW MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE NEXT FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY.
THEN ALONG WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CORNER. THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN SPITE OF INCREASED MOSTLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SUNDAY/S FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF NORTHEAST UT...WITH SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A 110KT JET WILL BE STRETCHED ABOVE THE
FRONT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FOLLOW FOR CONTINUED DYNAMICS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
BEST OROGRAPHICS...MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED. ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP OVER THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUE. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW
IS MOSTLY COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE FOR SNOW ON OUR SIDE OF THE DIVIDE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW AREAS THAT DO WELL IN THIS REGIME. THE
EASTERN UINTAS IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW. BUT
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND OPTIMAL OROGRAPHICS ONLY
COME TOGETHER FOR AROUND 6-9 HOURS AT BEST...WHICH IS ON THE SHORT
SIDE FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SEE ACTIVITY WIND DOWN
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.
FEEL THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ONLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS AND THE FLATTOPS. WHILE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF GOOD SNOWFALL...THE DURATION LOOKS TO BE TOO SHORT TO
RECEIVE ADVISORY AMOUNTS MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUE WITH HIGHS DROPPING AROUND
10-15 DEGREES F...AND POSSIBLY MORE UP NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE STORM SPLITS TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING OFF
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE A LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SNOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HOLDING ON
PAST DAYLIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN/S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO GET THE CLOSED SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN TRACKING
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR-
CORNERS...PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE SOUTH. ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MORE CLOSED OFF EC SOLUTION KEEPING
PRECIPITATION LARGELY SOUTH OF THE CWFA BORDER. IN CONTRAST...THE
MORE OPEN GFS CONTINUED TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS NOT
LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.

BY FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE DRY WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. APPEARED THIS BREAK WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP
THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AND FINALLY EXITS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH READINGS HOVERING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY LAYERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER ABOUT 03Z A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NE UT WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL SPREAD EAST INTO NW CO AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD SOUTH TO THE FLATTOPS AND ROAN PLATEAU AND VAIL PASS VCNTY
ABOUT 09Z...AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS ABOUT 12Z. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KGUC...OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. MOUNTAINS EAST
OF THAT LINE WILL BECOME OBSCURED AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
     TUESDAY COZ004-013.


UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC