Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 050455
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD TODAY FOR
WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
EVENING A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY
ALLOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOK FOR MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BY THU...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE NEXT BIG PLAYER IN THE AREAS WEATHER AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE THU NIGHT...THEN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRI-SAT...AND OVER COLORADO ON SUN. THE
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THU AND WILL
BEGIN TO CARRY SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. VERY WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THU NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT HAVE THE DIURNAL ASSIST...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THU PROMISES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S DUE TO THE WARM DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN
PASSES OVER THE AREA. ON FRI...THE FLOW PICKS UP A LITTLE. BUT
MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER NM AND AZ. HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL ENHANCE THESE BREEZES AND MAY PRODUCE STRONGER
GUSTS.

THE DETAILS IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ARE STILL NOT
RESOLVED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AT TIMES WETTER AND DRIER
TONGUES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AS
EMBEDDED LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND THEN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALSO AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE DIURNAL
ELEMENT WILL BE A BIG PLAYER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPLIES ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS SYSTEM
IS RELATIVELY WARM. THEREFORE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH
SIDE WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10-11K FEET.

AFTER THE LOW PICKS UP SPEED AND MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
MON...A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE NORTHERN TIER STATES DURING THE TUE-WED
TIME FRAME WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX INTO
THE AIRPORT LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFT 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 21Z WITH THESE CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



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