Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 211820
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
220 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Jose will wobble around well south of Cape Cod into the
weekend, gradually weakening with time. It will produce some
gusty winds at times along the coast into Friday. Meanwhile, a
large building ridge of high pressure over the region will be
the main feature through the weekend into early next week as
Jose weakens, making for a very nice stretch of dry and very warm
weather with temperatures running well above normal Saturday
through at least Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As Jose remains stationary well south of Cape Cod, it allows a
large blocking ridge of high pressure to build across the region
tonight allowing for mostly clear skies. After sunset mixing
will cease and most of the gusty winds will become light. This
will allow radiational cooling and the normal early fall
nocturnal valley fog to develop aft 06z. Temps will be near
normal with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the mountains to
mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Jose will remain quasi-stationary well south of Cape Cod Friday
and Friday night while the blocking ridge of high pressure
builds from the northwest. This ridge of high pressure will
bring plenty of subsidence and mostly sunny skies and mild temps
reaching into the lower to mid 70s, except slightly cooler
along the immediate coast. Winds along the coast may be breezy
at times Friday. Friday night skies will once again be mostly
clear thus some radiational cooling and the normal fall
nocturnal valley fog develops in the mountains after 06z.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Jose meanders well south of Cape Cod through the weekend.
Meanwhile, the very large ridge of high pressure continues to
build over the region producing a long stretch of very nice,
dry, and very warm conditions that will last through Tuesday.
By Wednesday, a frontal system passing northeast across southern
Canada along the northern periphery of the ridge, may produce a
few showers in the mountains while continued mild weather
continues over southern and central areas of Maine and New
Hampshire. Used superblend model for temps but realize they may
be weighted down some due to climo keeping forecast max temps a
little low.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions except LIFR at KLEB/KHIE in valley
fog 06z-13z tonight and again Fri night.

Long Term...

Sat - Tue...VFR except LIFR conditions possible in valley fog
at KLEB/KHIE between 08-13Z each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Jose will remain nearly stationary well south of
Cape Cod through Friday night. This will mean SCA conditions
are expected tonight through Friday over the outer waters. In
Penobscot bay,the SCA has been discontinued as swells were
remaining outside the bay area. In Casco Bay swells of 3-6 ft
continue along the outer harbor areas so a SCA due to hazardous
seas is in effect and will be needed through Friday.

Long Term...SCA conditions are likely through the weekend over
the outer waters, mainly for seas, as Jose continues to meander
south of Nantucket.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swells from Jose will continue through Friday and
into the weekend. Some minor beach erosion remains possible.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Marine
SHORT TERM...Marine
LONG TERM...Marine


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