Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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