Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250722
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND ERODING FROM THE W TO E WITH TIME. THESE
BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME QUICKLY COOLING IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THERE.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT WILL MEAN A RATHER MILD DAY
IN STORE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON COLD
FNT WILL APPROACH THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
FNT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AND PCPN LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY MIXED PCPN IS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD.

SUN WILL FEATURE COOL...MOIST...NWLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FOR THESE ZONES...WITH
SOME MIXING IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DAY TIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS EARLY...AND GRADUALLY
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... DEWPOINT VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S SO IT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT COLD.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT THOUGH CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT IF IT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER THEN SUCH WARMTH WILL NOT
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CONTINENT THIS WEEK... ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA... THOUGH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE W. THIS IS GOING
TO PROMOTE SOME VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...THRU DAWN. KLEB AND KHIE WILL SEE TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS FNT CROSSES THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR WILL LINGER ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS VFR. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS COLD
FNT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...AND PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PORTLAND HAS STILL NOT HAD ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. AVERAGE
FIRST FREEZE IS OCTOBER 9. THE RECORD LATEST FIRST FALL FREEZE AT
THE JETPORT IN PORTLAND IS OCTOBER 25 SET JUST LAST YEAR. THIS
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN AGAIN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH SO THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GROWING SEASON (THE PERIOD BETWEEN LAST SPRING FREEZE AND
FIRST FALL FREEZE) FOR 2014 STANDS AT 188 DAYS SO FAR. THIS ALSO
IS A RECORD AS THE PREVIOUS LONGEST GROWING SEASON WAS 1990 (184
DAYS). THE LAST TIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN
PORTLAND WAS APRIL 21.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEGRO
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO
MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO
CLIMATE...KIMBLE



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