Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 270159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS BUILDING UP OVER NORTHERN SLOPES. MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY THE ISLANDS HAS BROUGHT BIG ISLAND
SUMMIT WINDS TO WARNING LEVELS TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 80
MPH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS... A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACCOMPANYING
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS RIDING THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST COASTS AND
SLOPES OF KAUAI TONIGHT...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECT NORTHWEST
SLOPES OF THE OTHER ISLANDS.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PUSH FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT AS
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY FALLING
OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING TERRAIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN WINDS MONDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA BREEZES FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI SOMETIME
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY OVER KAUAI AND
INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG NORTHERN SLOPES
WITH THE TERRAIN AIDING THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL
MODELS HINTING AT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERING THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE EAST... AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS USUAL... LONG TERM FORECASTS OF THIS
NATURE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS BOUNCE FROM ONE FORECAST
TO THE NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH
SUNDAY. A SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION





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