Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 250636
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
836 PM HST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT IS NEAR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO
NORTHEAST TRADES TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WINDWARD
AND MAUKA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO MOISTURE CARRIED BACK OVER THE ISLANDS BY THE BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON/S SOUNDINGS AT HILO AND LIHUE SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATERS /PW/ VALUES OF JUST UNDER AN INCH. THE MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
DRIER AIR STILL NORTH OF KAUAI SINKING SOUTH...SO EXPECT FEWER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DIRECT SOME OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE TRADE WINDS TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. TRADES
TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS BRING
THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ELEVATED BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT EVENT...WINDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE SUMMITS.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS TO
THE WINDWARD AND MTN SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN
OBSC IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT KAUAI. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TO ALL AFFECTED ISLANDS BUT THE BIG ISLAND.

NO AIRMET TANGO FOR TURBC IN EFFECT BUT WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY
AS THE LO LVL NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 16Z.


&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING WARNING LEVEL SURF
TO VARIOUS NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO
SOME WEST FACING SHORES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WE WILL
MONITOR BUOY HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY CHANGE THE ZONE
CONFIGURATIONS FOR SUNDAY AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES.

THE CURRENT SWELL...COMBINED WITH SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SEAS AND WINDS DROP SOME
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME AREAS TO DROP OUT OF THE SCA...WHILE OTHER
AREAS MAY BE EXTENDED.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...LAU




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