Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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063
FXHW60 PHFO 092003
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1003 AM HST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather can be expected over the next few days as a
trough of low pressure lies just west of the area. Winds will remain
light with showers generally on the light side. Some improvement
is expected early next week as the trough moves to the east of the
area. Another trough is forecast to approach the area during the
second half of next week with another round of unsettled weather
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level trough is centered a few hundred miles west
of the state while a weak surface trough is located just west of
Kauai. A broad swath of multi layered clouds is seen in satellite
imagery and is causing skies to be rather cloudy over the state.
Radar imagery shows some light showers over the area mainly from
Oahu eastward. Periods of unsettled weather can be expected
through the weekend but most of the showers will be on the lighter
side. Winds are expected to remain light through the weekend.

The trough axis, both at the surface and aloft, is forecast to
drift east over the next few days. This will shift the clouds and
showers to the east as well but will likely linger over or near
The Big Island early next week. Light northerly flow will fill in
behind the trough, though wind speeds will be light enough to
allow for some sea and land breeze circulations. Drier weather
will spread from west to east early next week.

As we head in to the second half of next week, another trough of
low pressure is forecast to drop down to a position just west of
the area with an associated surface low developing as well. This
will shift our wind flow to the south and draw up some deep
tropical moisture. The result will be a cloudy and wetter weather
pattern setting up with the finer details being refined as we get
closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thick layered clouds along with scattered light to moderate showers
resulting in MVFR ceilings and visibility over the eastern
portions of the state from Maui County eastward this morning.
Expecting a chance of MVFR to IFR conditions in showers over
island terrain statewide this afternoon. AIRMET SIERRA for
mountain obscuration remains posted for Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
the Big Island.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect for upper level turbulence due to
strong jet stream winds. AIRMET ZULU is in effect for moderate
icing between 125 and FL220. These AIRMETS are expected to
continue at least through this morning, with some improvement
possible this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the weekend and on into the middle of next week.

There will be a series of small north and northwest swells through
the weekend. A slightly larger northwest swell is expected to
arrive Sunday night, peak late Monday and Monday night, then
gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf heights are expected
to remain below advisory levels.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Synopsis/Discussion/Marine...Burke
Aviation...Brenchley



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