Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 041416 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
415 AM HST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR
THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL KEEP LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PASSING
SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL MAINLY FOCUS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FEW
OF THE LARGER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT TIMES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS LINGERS WITH PWATS ON THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REMAINING AROUND
1.65 INCHES...A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING OF 1.79
INCHES. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES E
OF HILO AND MOVING NW AT 12 MPH. THE 2 AM HST FORECAST KEEPS
GUILLERMO TO THE N OF THE ALOHA STATE WED AND THU. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO JUSTIFY KEEPING A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE INTENSITY OF
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
BIG ISLAND ON WED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO COULD BRING. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING T.C. GUILLERMO WILL DRY THE AIR MASS UP ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.

THE CURRENT TRACK FOR T.C. GUILLERMO HAS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY
WEATHER AND WIND PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IT WILL STILL BRING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU





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