Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
844
FXHW60 PHFO 131959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALLOW
FOR LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU AND KAUAI. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT ISOLATED WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH IS DRIVING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...BUT
THE FLOW VEERS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT. THUS...ANTICIPATING TO SEE A
TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
LOCALIZED LEEWARD LAND AND BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE STATE ALLOWING STABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSION OF 10 KFT AT HILO WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER /PW/ VALUE OF 1.14 INCHES. MEANWHILE...LIHUE HAS AN 8 KFT
INVERSION AND IS AT A DRIER 0.87 INCHES OF PW. RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING WINDWARD SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND MOLOKAI.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WIND FLOW AND AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME.
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY...VEERING TO GENTLE EAST / SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OAHU
AND KAUAI. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH MOLOKAI...POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR WEST
AS THE KOOLAU SLOPES ON OAHU. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI.

A TRANSITION TO A BREEZY AND RATHER WET TRADE WIND PATTERN IS
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH THE DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CLOSE TO KAUAI ON MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS OVER THAT
ISLAND...WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL ISLANDS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS DEPICT THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SINKING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
PUSHES THE LINGERING MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND BRINGS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WINDWARD SHOWERS PUSHING INTO E AND NE FACING SLOPES. NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL SHORES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN A MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS SET TO
PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME
ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IN PLACE TODAY FOR AREAS AROUND BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...EXCEPT FOR MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR SOME OF THE SAME ZONES. THE SCA
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCOMING NORTHWEST
SWELL MENTIONED EARLIER...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...MORRISON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.