Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
GFS AND NAM DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESIVE WITH MOISTURE
AND DEVELOPS A 7000 FT DECK ON SUNDAY AFTN WHILE THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING SOME CIRRUS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. MUCH OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY BLANKETED WITH A 7000 FT DECK SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM. FOR TONIGHT...PROFILES STILL LOOK
SUPPORTIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR KSGR AND KLBX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS SHIELD REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FURTHER NORTH TO
INCLUDE CONROE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEN MOVE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM FOR THE AREA THOUGH AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE STEADILY ACROSS SE
TX THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT TO WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES
RATHER LIMITED AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST N/NW OF THE CWA ON MON
WITH THIS FEATURE...ISO COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MON NIGHT/
EARLY TUES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF A DRIER (BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER) AIR
MASS TO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS 1ST PART OF THE WEEK WX
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FLATTEN/SHIFT FURTHER EAST BY WEEKS END. THE
RESULTING ZONAL TO SLIGHT SWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD OPEN US UP TO A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE(OR TWO). THIS COMBINED WITH THE RE-
TURN OF ONSHORE WINDS/INCREASING MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUPPORT IDEA
OF LOW POPS STARTING LATE THUR (AND MAYBE ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK-
END?). 41

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOW SEAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE COAST AND THEN STALL
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE THE PLAINS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT LOW LEVELS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  80  62  81  63 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  63  81  64 /  10  10  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  75  67  77  67 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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