Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 291155
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
455 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE BRUSHES THE AREA. A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A RECENTLY PASSED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE
ARE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH END IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER A PACIFIC RIDGE
ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN DUMBBELLING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...KEEPING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER THE DESERT AND FOOTHILL ZONES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...AS THE WEAK LOW
ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPING
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL RUNS WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING
AND EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE THAT BY THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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