Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS66 KHNX 021040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY AND BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z /0200 PST/ THIS MORNING...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOWED
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WEST OF LOS
ANGELES. A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY INTO CENTRAL KERN COUNTY...BRINGING RAIN TO BAKERSFIELD AND
SNOW TO THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS. AT 0905Z /0105 PST/
THE CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED 1.5 INCH OF SNOW ON MIL
POTRERO ROAD AT CUDDY VALLEY ROAD IN THE SAN EMIGDIOS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AS THE FIRST LOW DROPS SOUTH AND
THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL ONLY BE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WILL BE AN
IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN TRAVEL. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/.

AT 10Z...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG 128W. THE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL
FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE FIRST LOW...BUT WILL STILL BE A
MAJOR FACTOR IN TODAY/S WEATHER.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST
BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS LOCATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE POSITION OF THE
FIRST LOW AND AGAIN WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT...
THE FLOW OVER THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY...WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONFINE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
KERN COUNTY DESERT.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT THE SNOW LEVEL ABOVE THE
TEJON AND TEHACHAPI PASSES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS THE SECOND LOW
DROPS SOUTH LATER TODAY AND THE FLOW SHIFTS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SNOW WILL FALL ON THE HIGHER POINTS OF THE
PASSES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OFF SAN DIEGO BY 18Z /1000
PST/ TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH. LOCAL MVFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY
AND 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953
KFAT 03-03       80:1994     45:1976     55:1905     26:1966
KFAT 03-04       84:1929     49:1951     55:1991     30:1966

KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
KBFL 03-03       84:1987     47:1976     55:1930     20:1917
KBFL 03-04       88:1929     50:1919     64:1987     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.