Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 301015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS WEEK THANKS TO A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS WILL AWAKE TO A REFRESHINGLY
COOL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS WRITING AND IS MARKED BY LITTLE MORE THAN
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL INYO COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. IN ITS
WAKE...A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW IS FLOODING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WITH OCEAN COOLED AIR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE
RATHER QUICKLY BY MIDDAY TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THIS
REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TODAY WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 8 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. SMOKE FROM THE FIRES
IN THE SIERRA WILL BE BLOWN INTO NEVADA BY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS AT THE 8K FOOT LEVEL
TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY SO THIS MIGHT BRING SOME
OF THAT SMOKE BACK INTO THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT DURING MIDWEEK AS SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO IT.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE
CA COAST AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THESE AREAS...MAX TEMPS COULD FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS SIMILAR TO TODAY. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS
LIFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW
SO WE WOULD EXPECT A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN BONE DRY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z TODAY

LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND
CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT AND LOCALLY UP TO 35 KTS
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BLDU WITH LOCAL VIS AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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