Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 291125
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
425 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance and remnant tropical moisture will result in
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the sierra today.
Otherwise a gradual cooling trend will bring temperatures down to
near normal by Friday then more significant cooling for the
weekend with highs falling to around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some remnant mid level clouds from yesterdays convective storm
activity. Otherwise mostly clear skies across the central CA
interior. Weather radar rainfall estimated the highest amounts
from Breckenridge to East of the Grapevine. The highest rainfall
amount was four tenths of an inch from Lamont.

Satellite images indicate moisture remains over S CA and the
sierra with precipitable water values of 30-40 percent above
normal. Water vapor images show a weak disturbance drifting North
over the Tulare county mountains. Thus favorable conditions
remain for convective storms to develop this afternoon. Think the
best area for thunderstorm development will be mainly over the
Southern Sierra Nevada as the weak disturbance pushes northward.

Models in fair agreement in bringing a significant weather system
across ca during the weekend. An initial short wave now off the
British Colombia coast will start moving into N CA Thursday
night. An initial cold front will be dry and sweep south across
central ca friday night. Another short wave disturbance
originating in Alaska will follow bringing colder airmass into
North CA Sunday. Operational models indicate light precipitation
will be probable over Yosemite and the North sectors of the
Central San Joaquin Valley Sunday night. The EC and Canadian
models prog precipitation moving well south reaching the
tehachapis monday morning. The weather system will be progressive
moving East of the Sierra late monday. Temperatures are trending
downward with approaching weather system. The notable cooling
will start Saturday. By Sunday and Monday temperatures will be
down to 15-20 degrees below normal. Strong gusty winds will also
be possible Saturday and Sunday with the passing weather system.
Breezy to windy conditions will likely result in areas of blowing
dust especially in the west side of the san joaquin valley and
Kern desert.

Expect temperatures trending back upward through the middle of
next week as the trough moves out but still several degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the Southern Sierra Nevada
in the afternoon from 21Z to 04Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail over the central California interior during the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday September 29 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...MV
avn/fw...Andersen
prev discussion...JEB
synopsis...Andersen

weather.gov/hanford



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