Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 290912
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
212 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SMALL
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, BUT DISTINCT
CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AND THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL INSTABILITY INDICIES
INDICATE AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY) OVER THE SIERRA SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND
PERSISTINGTHROUGH SUNSET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL. FORECAST MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION, THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE RATHER MINIMAL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HOWEVER
THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF IMPULSES HOWEVER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891
KFAT 03-30       85:2003     52:1936     58:1978     31:1897
KFAT 03-31       89:1966     50:1967     58:1986     31:1905

KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
KBFL 03-30       88:1923     57:1904     59:1978     30:1907
KBFL 03-31       90:2003     50:1925     60:1969     32:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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