Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 040528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NEAR TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SAHPE. I DID
INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WKND.

EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THIS WKND...BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE A HOT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH UPR 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
VERY DRY-MID LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EVEN
AS AFTN CU BUILDS...SO BUILDUP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY SHALLOW.
THE SEA BREEZE...AND ESPECIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE TN
VLY...AND WHILE THIS WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA...SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
PVA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER AFTN CONVECTION
CHANCES...ALONG WITH KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH MOST
PLACES HOVERING 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. CONTINUING HEIGHT
FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PERSIST CONVECTION WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE...AND MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 70...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VCSH LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS. FEW/SCT
LOW CIGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL MENTION
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
ISOLATED VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE ALBEIT
SLOWLY NOW ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS
TO BE VERIFYING WELL. WINDS WILL ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW THE SAME
PROGRESSION AS FRIDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND LATER TODAY PICKING
BACK UP TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DIRECTION WILL VARY LITTLE...SPEEDS SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT...HIGHEST LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
10- 15 KT SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT WEAKER.
ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE BEFORE RETURNING TO A SW
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT BOTH
DAYS...WITH A SW WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL


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