Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 211025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




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