Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 230147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
847 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN COOL AIR OVERNIGHT LEADING TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE CHILLED AIR WILL LIFT OUT ON TUESDAY
CLEARING THE PATH FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT EVEN MORE MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT MAY ADD SOME THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS CHRISTMAS AND THE DAYS THAT
FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 847 PM MONDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL
TROUGH POSITIONED ABOUT 20 NM OFFSHORE OF THE SC/NC COAST. MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THIS FEATURE ONTO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...AND RECENT PMSL LOOPS SHOW THE FEATURE MAKING A MOVE
TOWARD LAND. THE NE WIND FLOW IS A SHALLOW ONE AND THE KLTX VAD
WIND PROFILE DEPICTS DEEP SW WIND FLOW ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-75 KT BOTTOM TO TOP. MOST RAIN PRESENTLY HAS MOVED WELL
OFFSHORE AND CURRENTLY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY HAS QUIETED PCPN. THE COASTAL TROUGH MEANWHILE IS
EDGING CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WHEN RAIN LULLS OCCUR SUSPECT OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF MIST AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
PRESENCE.

SO FAR THE LOW/HIGH TEMP AT ILM IS 44/47 AND LATEST HOURLY TEMP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...THEN
WARMING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOUNTING SW WINDS
CONTINUE TO SCOUR THE WET AND SHALLOW MARITIME WEDGE IN OVERCAST
OF LOW ALTITUDE AND SATURATED AIR.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORT TERM WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. PERIOD BEGINS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. AS IS TYPICAL THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO MOVE THE FRONT
ONSHORE EARLY TUE...BUT THIS PROBABLY WONT HAPPEN SAVE FOR THE
COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE OR EVEN TUE EVENING. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT PATCHY RAIN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT AND ITS LOCATION ON
TUE WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. ALONG THE COAST MID TO UPPER 60S IS POSSIBLE WHILE
WEST OF I-95 HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.

COASTAL FRONT PUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 45 KT DEVELOPING BY WED MORNING WHICH WILL
KEEP LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO. INLAND AREAS MAY END UP WITH
TUE HIGHS AND TUE NIGHT LOWS BEING THE SAME OR WITHIN A DEGREE OF
EACH OTHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE
900MB ALONG WITH PVA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES EJECTED NORTHEAST FROM THE
BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. ALTHOUGH HARD TO PIN DOWN A FAVORED
LOCATION/TIME TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN
INHERITED CATEGORICAL POP. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE JETTING DO NOT THINK DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE STABLE SO WHILE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DUE TO THE ENHANCED GRADIENT DO NOT FORESEE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN A LOT OF AREAS DESPITE
CLOUD COVER. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING AND
AN ABUNDANCE OF SHEAR BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PEAK MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG WED AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL AT BEST. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT AND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT AT THIS POINT...HENCE SPC HAVING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. DO THINK RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AROUND 2 INCHES. WORTH NOTING 2 INCHES WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE
HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR LATE DEC.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIP. LATE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING HIGH POP IN THE WED NIGHT PERIOD THOUGH BASED ON LATEST
TIMING THINK PRECIP WILL BE OVER IN MOST AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NC COAST WHERE PRECIP MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA INTO
THU KEEPING WHAT COLD AIR IS PRESENT WELL TO THE WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE REGION BUT
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WED NIGHT LOWS
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A REAPPEARANCE FINALLY ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS
THURS MORNING WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THE
DAY LEAVING A DEEP W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A 20 PLUS DEGREE DROP
FROM PREVIOUS DAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP LESS THAN A HALF INCH
BY NOON AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...GUSTY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
CLOSER TO 60.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THURS INTO FRI. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THURS WILL LIGHTEN UP
BECOMING NEAR CALM THURS NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S THURS
NIGHT. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
REACHING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SAT NIGHT. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME
SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW AS RIDGE
HOLDS ON TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS
HANGING ON THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS UP IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES SUN AND MON
ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...EXPECT IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND -RA/VCSH. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AT CRE/MYR POSSIBLE AS WARM FRONT NEARS THE
AREA.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHILE OBSERVATIONS REPORT LOW CIGS AROUND 300-600 FT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. INTO
TUESDAY...DETERIORATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO OBSERVE LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -RA/VCSH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 5
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 8 KTS. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KCRE/KMYR...AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT SHOWERS/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VFR THU BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 847 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FRONT IS CROSSING FRYING PAN SHOALS
AND RECENT NUMERICAL MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE CLOSE TO SHORE INTO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS DECAYING AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND PERHAPS BECOME VARIABLE OR SE AS THE DECAYING COASTAL TROUGH
EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WITHIN THE 20NM WATERS. PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND MIST COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 2NM AT TIMES. SEAS 4
FEET EXCEPT 3 FEET INSHORE S OF CAPE FEAR WITH EAST WAVES
DOMINATING THE SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET EVERY 8 SECONDS. THIS WAVE REGIME
WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.


SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF
3 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TUE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING THE FRONT...AND THE RESULTING
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO
FAST TO MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE COLDER AIR AND TUE APPEARS TO BE
NO DIFFERENT. THUS CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DELAYED UNTIL TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUE
NIGHT. SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL BE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AT TIMES...BUILDING SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS OVER 6 FT. SCA
WILL BE NEEDED PROBABLY STARTING CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. COLD ADVECTION IS
LACKING BUT GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST. GUSTY W-SW
WINDS EARLY THURS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS UP AROUND 5 TO 7 FT SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY THURS
AFTN WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE NW AND
LIGHTEN UP LATE THURS INTO FRI AS CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS CLOSER
OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURS NIGHT AND DOWN TO
3 FT OR LESS THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH MORE
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN
FLOW UNDER 15 KTS SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL PUSH
SEAS BACK UP CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMOLIES ARE INCREASING
ACROSS COASTAL MEASURING STATIONS...AND CURRENT DEPARTURES ARE
APPROCHING 1 FOOT. FOR THIS REASON AND INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED
FOR AREA BEACHES...WITH EXCEPTION OF SHELTERED BRUNSWICK BEACHES.
THIS IS EFFECTIVE TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM...WITH HIGH
WATER RUN-UP ON AREA BEACHES LIKELY REACHING TO DUNES. MAJOR OR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     SCZ054-056.

NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ106-108.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...3/MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



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