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000
FXUS62 KILM 251927
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST BEING THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. NORTH-NORTHWEST  WINDS AOB
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME BACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING
GENERALLY NORTH AOB 6 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ALREADY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BUT WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 2 FT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/SGL
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK