Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

A cold front will enter the area and stall through early next
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be around
during the latter part of the week as weak upper level
disturbances continue to pass overhead.


As of 300 PM Sunday...A west to subtle southwest flow will continue
at the mid levels through the period. A very broad front extends
across the Mississippi Valley well to the west. For our area
there appears to be two decent chances of convection, the first
coming this afternoon and evening with similar timing Monday.

Currently convective debris from last night`s convection is exiting
off the coast and a decent cumulus field is developing in its wake
matching up well with convective inhibition has finally eroded from
a 100mb Mixed Layer perspective. This trend should continue and
showers and thunderstorms should begin in the next few hours. The
GFS shows a smattering of convection this afternoon with a little
more enhancement/organization around 00 UTC. The high resolution CAM
guidance is showing a similar scenario albeit with more of a delay
in timing. I have increased the pops slightly for the next six hours
or so due to these trends. If and moreso when things get going,
severe potential is fair game with strong winds and hail the primary
threats. For the overnight hours beyond 03 UTC, things should be
quiet persisting well into Monday morning.

For Monday afternoon, residual Piedmont troughing and very similar
thermal parameters will offer up more chances of convection.
Guidance pops from the MAV aren`t as high as this afternoon and
evening but may trend up in time which can be the nature in the warm
season regarding convection. SPC has most of the area in a slight
risk for Monday.

Thermal profiles show temperatures should be a little warmer Monday
afternoon as does the official forecast. Overnight lows tonight will
remain mostly in the 70s with maybe an upper 60 or two well


As of 300 PM Sunday...With a boundary stalled over the area and some
mid level energy still present Monday night may see a continuation
of the afternoons` convective activity. This is especially
suggesting by the 12Z WRF which shows a very agressive, possibly
feedback-contaminated convective signal over mainly SC zones.
Tuesday morning should offer a bit of a break in radar activity
though not necessarily a rain-free period. With a little heating and
the front still in the area Tuesday afternoon should once again see
at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Coverage will wane to
isolated or perhaps none at all later Tuesday night.


As of 300 PM Sunday...GFS/ECMWF in agreement on the evolving H5
pattern in slowly migrating a broad but low amplitude trough
eastward across the Great lakes and Ohio valley then into
New England and SE Canada this period, while holding an upper
ridge of varying amplitude over Florida and the Bahamas. This
will allow a series of weak fronts and upper disturbances to
move to our coasts, offering daily chances of thunderstorms.
Late May/early June heating coupled with PWATS values between
1.50-1.80", and numerous surface boundaries, will support
convection much of the extended forecast period. Next weekend
potentially could turn wet, as enhancement of column moisture is
drawn from the Gulf of Mexico by low pressure over Texas on
Saturday, tracking to the Ohio Valley during Sunday. With the
abundance of clouds, daytime temperatures will run near normal
for the season, middle to upper 80s, but above average minimum
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.


As of 18Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period.
There will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening but the confidence level does not warrant
any prevailing flight restrictions. There should be enough
debris cloudiness and wind to prevent any significant fog
outbreak after Monday morning.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in showers
and thunderstorms Monday Night through Tuesday. More typical
summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday and Thursday.


As of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda High pressure will keep a
southwest flow in place over the waters through the period.
Speeds will be mostly in a range of 10-15 knots with the
exception of a few hours this afternoon when stronger low level
jetting warrants a few hours of 15- 20. Speeds will relax a
little Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the four
footers mostly confined to the next few hours coinciding with
the slightly stronger winds.

As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be stalled over land,
keeping marine flow out of the SW. Solutions that push the front
farther and lead to veered flow currently not favored though
impossible to rule out. This boundary will tend to remain quite
stationary through the period keeping a fairly light southwesterly
flow across the waters. The proximity of the boundary paired with
the poorly defined nature of the Atlantic high will keep wind waves
minimal and preclude any swell energy for an overall wave forecast
of just 2 ft.

As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-like marine
conditions this period as SW winds prevail with 2-3 foot seas.
High pressure will remain centered just to the SE and E of
Bermuda, and weak troughing inland should maintain SW wind flow
Wed to Fri. The sea spectrum will be comprised of S-SSW waves
1-2 feet every 5 seconds and ESE waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds.
TSTMS will be active this period, moving generally from land to
the coastal waters, and some may be strong from afternoon
heating. Getting a radar update before heading out may be in the
best interest of safely this period as we transition into a
more active lightning and TSTM wind gust season.




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