Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 222002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure centered to the south will keep dry weather over the
region tonight. Showers associated with a Great Lakes disturbance
are expected to stay north of the area on Sunday, though winds
will be gusty. A large area of high pressure will follow the
disturbance, bringing more dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.


High pressure extending from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
Great Lakes will shift southward a bit tonight in response to mid
level short wave energy skimming across the northern plains. This
will still allow for clear skies over the ILN area once cumulus
dissipate this evening, due to the dry airmass and subsidence
associated with the high.

The pressure gradient will tighten overnight as the disturbance
starts to push toward the area from the northwest, resulting in a
southwest surface flow of perhaps 4 to 7 knots. Due to mixing and
slight warm advection, this flow should prevent temperatures from
falling below 40 even with favorable radiational cooling and
lengthening night.


Mid level disturbance will progress to the vicinity of Michigan on
Sunday, developing a surface trough that will be dropping into
northern Ohio. Models keep measurable precip north of the area, so
the effects for the ILN area should be limited to increasing
clouds, and winds gusting over 20 knots in some locations. A
persistent northwest flow aloft on the west side of a long wave
upper trough over the eastern CONUS will push the system rapidly
eastward to the Atlantic Coast by Monday morning. An extensive
area of surface high pressure will follow for Monday and Monday
night, bring a dry airmass and mainly clear skies.

Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 60s Sunday under warm
advection on a southwesterly breeze ahead of the surface trough.
Readings are forecast to settle back into the upper 50s to low 60s
Monday due to limited cold advection behind the trough.


Long term period begins with highly amplified upper level flow with
Ohio Valley in northwesterly flow. Surface high pressure will build
in, becoming centered over the region Tuesday morning. Light winds
and clear skies will lead to cool temperatures Tuesday morning.
Expect lows from the middle 30s northeast to the lower 40s

Surface high pressure building across the region will offer dry
weather and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday. Expect highs
to range from the upper 50s northeast to the lower/middle
60s southwest.

Numerical model solutions showing a progressive mid level shortwave
tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid
week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but Wednesday
night looks to be the best threat for rain and have bumped pops up
to likely then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range from the
upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end from
west to east Thursday with highs of 60 to 65.

Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs again will fall in the 60 to
65 degree range.

Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Have held off
any precipitation until Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs
to range from the lower and middle 60s far north to near 70 south.


Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have developed across the
region. Most of these clouds are now VFR, though there have been
some brief MVFR ceilings at times. Winds today will remain out of
the northwest, with gusts of up to around 20 knots.

Skies will gradually clear tonight, as winds back to the west and
weaken. Clear skies should continue into Sunday, with
southwesterly winds expected to gust to around 20 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
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