Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

As high pressure works off to the east tonight into tomorrow, low
level moisture will be on the increase. This will slowly lead to
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
which will reach the region Thursday night into Friday.


Scattered cumulus clouds have dissipated with the loss of heating.
High level clouds have streamed into the region ahead of mid level
s/w over the plains moving into the upr ms vly. This s/w will
track into the Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Expect mid level clouds to develop across the area late tonight.
Low levels are dry but a sprinkle toward sunrise is not out of the
question. Model solns trending dry and therefore have maintained a
dry fcst overnight. Good temperature gradient due to cloud cover
differential overnight. Expect lows to range from the upper 50s
far northeast to the mid/upr 60s far southwest.

Previous Discussion...
Diurnal cu, which is more abundant across the nw
quarter of the fa, should gradually dissipate as the afternoon
progresses. Then as high pressure moves off to the east coast
tonight, cirrus will be on the increase for the second half of the

Earlier runs of the RAP were trying to bring some pcpn into the
wrn counties towards 12Z, however the most recent run has now
dissipated those chances. That leaves the 12Z NAM was the outlier
in bringing scattered showers in towards the end of the period.
Will back off on the pcpn chances for late tonight based on the
consensus of the models.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s for locations east of
CMH to the mid 60s for the CVG tri-state.


Dewpoints will be on the increase tomorrow as sly flow increases.
Pcpn associated with a weak H5 s/w will work into the fa during
the morning hours. Instability increases by the afternoon so
transitioned the pcpn type from showers to tstms by Wednesday
afternoon. It looks like the best chances will be across the nw
quarter of the fa. Kept the extreme se counties dry tomorrow.
Highs tomorrow will range in the 80s.

Wednesday night the better pcpn chances remain across the nrn
counties as upper level energy works through the flow. By
Thursday, a cdfnt begins to approach the fa. It still looks like
the northern half of the CWA will be most likely to be affected by
storms on Thursday, but kept a slight chance for the srn counties.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer ranging from 85 to

Forcing is very weak Thursday night, so washed out pcpn chances
as the night progressed.


A few showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday in residual
moisture and forcing near a weakening frontal boundary along and
south of the Ohio River, including the Cincinnati metro area.
Locations to the north including Dayton and Columbus should remain
dry. High pressure and a dry airmass are expected for Saturday.

For Sunday, moisture and energy spilling southeastward from Great
Lakes low pressure will provide a chance of thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible Monday when the low is
forecast to drag a cold front across Ohio. A few thunderstorms may
persist on Tuesday as the boundary sags gradually south to Kentucky.

With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered
from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with
mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer
heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the
low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make outdoor
activities uncomfortable at best.


Scattered cumulus clouds are dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating. Mid level shortwave to track from the plains into the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, waa mid and high
level clouds will increase after 06z. This will bring VFR
ceilings. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or a light passing shower
toward sunrise but better moisture looks to stay north of the TAF
sites. Marginal instability develops Wednesday afternoon, along
with an axis of weak low level convergence. Expect scattered
convection to develop mainly over the west TAF site. Have a
mention of VCTS to cover this chance but kept conditions VFR.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible from Wednesday night into
Thursday night.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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