Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 221141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Mild temperatures are expected once again today as rain showers
spread slowly north into the region through this afternoon.
Periods of rain will continue tonight into Monday as an upper
level low pressure system moves across the southeastern United
States. A drier but cooler airmass will settle into the region for


An area of weak elevated convection is continuing to work slowly
northeast across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio
early this morning with a few of these showers clipping our far
northwestern counties. The HRRR is showing this activity slowly
weakening through daybreak so will just linger some lower chance
pops for the next few hours.

The upper level low over the Southern Plains early this morning
will push east into the southeastern United States through this
afternoon. Ahead of this, a vorticity axis is forecast to rotate
northward into the Ohio Valley through this afternoon. There
remain some differences among the models as to just how far north
this axis will make it and how much it will weaken as it moves
north. Overall though, there has been a southward shift in the
northern extent of this axis so will trim back pops a bit for
later today, ranging from chance pops in the north to likely
across the south. The models have also backed off on their
instabilities so will also remove thunder wording. In a continued
mild airmass, expect highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


The upper level low will rotate northeastward tonight and then
slowly ride up across the mid Atlantic States Monday into Tuesday.
As the low begins to pivot more to the northeast, several bands of
energy rotating around the low will help spread rain showers back
north/west across our area tonight into Monday. The models have
backed off some on the QPF amounts, with the axis of better QPF
mainly remaining just east of our fa. Nonetheless, will have
categorical pops across our east tonight into Monday, tapering
back to likely across our western areas. Precipitation should
then gradually taper off from the west Monday night as the low
lifts off to the northeast and mid level ridging builds in across
our area Monday night into Tuesday. A cooler airmass will filter
into the region for the start of the work week. Highs on Monday
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Tuesday mainly
in the mid 40s.


A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the
coming week, with ridging building into the western United States
and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal
winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for
periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night
into Friday night.


Patchy dense fog has formed across the TAF sites this morning as
some clear skies has allowed dewpoint depressions to approach
zero. As the sun comes up this morning the patchy ground fog
should quickly burn off allowing all TAF sites to go VFR.

Currently on water vapor this morning an upper level low can be
seen rotating over north Texas with a band of PV pushing north
into Tennessee. This upper level lift will continue to move north
this afternoon and slowly weaken. High res models for the most
part are in agreement with the precipitation shield weakening as
it heads north. GFS and NAM forecast soundings also hint at this
with forecast soundings slowly saturating this afternoon into
evening. For now have covered the chance of afternoon rain with a VCSH.

Early Monday morning the upper level low will begin to slowly
pull north and east allowing a secondary band of precipitation to
move across the TAF sites. As this occurs ceilings will lower to
MVFR/ IFR with some restrictions also occurring in the heavier
bands of rain. This secondary band of precipitation appears more
certain as both GFS and NAM forecast soundings completely saturate
Monday morning with PWATs between 0.75" and 1.00". There still
is some uncertainty though on where exactly this second band of
precipitation will setup Monday morning with some high res models
showing KDAY on the fringe of the precipitation shield.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible into Monday
night. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
possible again Wednesday and Thursday.




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