Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 012055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR






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