Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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847
FXUS61 KILN 122058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN



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