Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 070016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
816 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A
BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH EASTERN COUNTIES BEING COOLER THAN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING EVEN AS CLOUDS THICKEN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL LIMIT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM IN BULK SHEAR WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE MAY GET UP TO 2000
J/KG.

12Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE STORMS INITIATE
AND ALSO IN COVERAGE WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTING
LESSER AREAL EXTENT THAN SYNOPTIC RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY
POPS BUT NOW ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE AS STORMS DEVELOP AND CONGEAL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY STALL NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT DURING THE EVENING
AND THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME TRAINING IN AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE EVENING. SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT A LOW LEVEL ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
COMPARED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.

THIS FRONTOGENETIC AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.  MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.  AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS.  WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
EXTENDED.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH DEVELOPED THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO SCTD BUT A BRIEF CIG AROUND 10000
FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE INSTBY WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE
SRN TAF SITES. BEING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND IN THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THE FCST HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCTS.

LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS SATURDAY AND THEN
VEER TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURG THE LATE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR


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