Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 241749
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of
low pressure centered to the west. The low will track east to
the Great Lakes by Sunday, bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Weak high pressure
and drier air will build in briefly early Monday, before
another area of low pressure arrives for Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid clouds that were across the area have finally thinned.
Cumulus is develop to the southwest and will spread into the
region through the rest of the afternoon. Given recent
temperature trends, have raise highs several degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure system will gradually move east to Missouri by
Saturday, while a warm front remains draped across the Great
Lakes, leaving the ILN area in the warm sector. With models
trending a bit slower with this system, expect dry weather to
persist tonight.

For Saturday, moisture and lift ahead of the low will produce
increasing chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Western locations will see the best chance of showers being
closer to the bulk of moisture and forcing. Chance for severe
thunderstorms will be limited by marginal instability featuring
CAPE values reaching perhaps 500 J/KG.

Continued warm advection on a southerly flow will allow high
temperatures around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active weather pattern this weekend into next week. Initial upper
level low to lift northeast and open up as it tracks from the mid MS
Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. Axis of moisture
and instability will result in a period of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday ahead of surface cold front. Highs on
Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s
north to the upper 60s south.

Temporary dry period to work in early Monday as ridging builds in
ahead of next upper level trof. Next shortwave and associated
surface wave to track quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley. In
the warm moist environment temperatures to rise to highs from the
mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Break in precipitation will be
short lived with showers and thunderstorms re-developing Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Pcpn to end early Tuesday as surface
high builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above
normal with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s
south.

Surface high to slide east with upper level ridging building in
Wednesday. This will provide dry weather and continued mild
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s
northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

Active weather pattern to continue with next upper level low getting
kicked northeast from the southern plains into the mid MS Vly by
Friday morning. Will bring chance pops Thursday and then likely pops
Friday with a chance of thunder. Highs on Thursday and and Friday,
generally 60 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered to broken cumulus will occur through the early part of
the TAF period. Expect clouds to gradually diminish after 00Z.
High clouds will overspread the area during the latter part of
the period with some diurnal cumulus developing on Saturday.
Gusty south winds at the start of the period will decrease with
the loss of heating. Winds will back slightly overnight but
maintain 5 to 10 kt. Southerly winds around 10 kt will prevail
on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will be possible again late Monday
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...


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