Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW NORMAL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON A
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED
TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD AIR COMES ACROSS THE LAKES.
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN KENTUCKY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FA COULD END UP SEEING THE MOST
SUN TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE AROUND 40 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CAA. CU SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S TUESDAY AND THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH
MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE ALSO TENDED TO
TRACK THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALMOST TAKES ON AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDIBILITY TO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF...BUT NOT AS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED AS THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...FRIDAY POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME INDICATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
IN PLAY FOR INCLUSION IN THIS PACKAGE. SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO RAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIRRUS OVERTOPPING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE I-71 CORRIDOR BY THE
AFTERNOON. STRATOCU CURRENTLY AT KCVG MAY AFFECT KLUK IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE IT IS REMOVED FROM THESE TAF SITES BY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

COLD ADVECTION ON THIS N WIND WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON BUT ATTM THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE THE
UPPER HAND AND AM GENERALLY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES ONCE THE CI
EXITS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...FRANKS







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