Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 310000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Strong to severe convection currently ongoing along a just west of Effingham line will continue to track
northeastward across the area late this afternoon into the early
evening.  Based on radar timing tools and the latest HRRR output, it
appears the storms will exit the KILX CWA into west-central Indiana
by 01z/8pm.  Have therefore held on to categorical PoPs for thunder
across the far E/NE around Champaign and Paris into the early
evening.  Once these storms exit, additional showers will develop
within the deformation zone of a departing low.  Models have been
consistently showing this precipitation breaking out across the
Illinois River Valley this evening...then slowly shifting eastward
overnight.  With the primary instability axis shifting well to the
east into the Ohio River Valley, do not think any widespread thunder
will occur with the precip on the back side of the low.  Have
therefore gone with likely PoPs for showers across the west this
evening...then everywhere except locations near the Indiana border
overnight.  Temperatures will cool on the back side of the
low...with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s far north
around the upper 40s south of I-70.  Deformation zone
showers will persist across the area into Friday morning before
gradually dissipating and coming to an end by midday.  Despite the
end of the precip, skies will remain overcast through the entire
day.  Clouds and brisk northwesterly winds will keep high
temperatures below normal for this time of year in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

An active weather pattern to hold over the Midwest for the next
week as a series of upper level waves track into the Rockies and out
into the Plains, eventually affecting our area with showers about
every 2 to 3 days. The next system to affect us will be coming along
on Sunday and Monday, followed by a rather vigorous upper wave by
late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week bringing another chance
for showers. Models seem to have latched on to Wednesday`s system as
the one that may bring down some rather chilly air for the middle
and latter portion of next week as a large trof deepens in over the
Great Lakes. Until that happens, other than a brief cool down in the
wake of these upper waves, our temperatures are expected to average
above normal as we head into the middle portion of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

999 mb surface low pressure just west of Lincoln IL early this
evening will track to the northern IN/OH border by 12Z/Fri and
into nw PA by sunset Fri. Winds will veer to the W/NW behind the
departing low pressure system tonight and Friday and be 8-14 kts
with few higher gusts especially during day Friday. Scattered rain
showers will continue tonight into Friday morning before exiting
east of area by Fri afternoon. IFR clouds poised to the northwest
of I-55 across Iowa/northwest Illinois including PIA will spread
se into central IL during this evening and early overnight,
reaching CMI between 06-07Z. IFR ceilings should gradually lift to
low end MVFR ceilings of 1-1.5k ft during Friday afternoon.





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