Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

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