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000
FXUS63 KIND 221039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
639 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

FINALLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI.
STILL...SOME GUIDANCE HAS VASTLY OVERDONE PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY IN
THEIR RUNS...AND HAVE TEMPERED POPS BACK TO MIDDLING CHANCES THIS
MORNING...INCREASING BACK TO LIKELY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND SOME WEAK
HEATING OCCURS. THUNDER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIMITED...PERHAPS INCREASING TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN INSTABILITY. DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK NOT
UNREASONABLE GIVEN WEAK TO MIDDLING INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
SHEAR...BUT SUSPECT THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...OR
PERHAPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY IMPACT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE
RACING OFF INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ON TEMPS...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL FOR THE LAST DAY OR
SO...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF OVERDOING PRECIP. HAVE BUMPED WARM END
OF GUIDANCE UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

CARRIED ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THUNDER ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY DROPS
VERY LOW. WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FELT THIS WAS LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY WHICH RAPIDLY WANES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER.

ON TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TWEAK CONSENSUS NUMBERS UPWARDS MOST
PERIODS...AS THIS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
CHANGES NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
BUILDING A LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS DUE TO THE
COOL CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
SEEING AS WE WILL STILL HAVE A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL PAN OUT. LEFT POPS AT
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%). DRY AGAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. CEILING
ARE GOING BACK IN FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MFVR SO TEMPO/D A FEW
SITES TO MFVR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. OTHERWISE...TAFS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT OTHER
TIMES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
23 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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