Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO CROSS INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  OUR STATE
WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR UNTIL A COLD FRONT
PASSES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THAT
WILL RULE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES.

ALL THE MODELS HAVE AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE INTO SATURDAY. THEY ALSO AGREE THIS FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC
OVER INDIANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO DEVELOP REALLY GOOD
OVERRUNNING WITH A LOW DECK. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHOVED AWAY
INSTEAD OF SITTING THERE BLOCKING INCOMING WARM AIR...AS WOULD
HAPPEN WITH AN ANTICYCLONE.

FURTHERMORE AN ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GULF FROM OPENING AND PROVIDING
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA.

WE MAY STILL SEE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPULSES IN
A FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT A WELL DEVELOPED LOW DECK IS LESS LIKELY.

GIVEN THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME CLOUDS AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...LOWS ARE APT TO WHAT EVENING TEMPERATURES ARE WITH SLOW
WARMING LATER. SATURDAY WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND NOT TOO MUCH
LOWER CLOUD...WE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  AS
CHICAGO SUGGESTED...THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

GIVEN ALL MODELS HAVE LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW MAV POPS LOOK REASONABLE THEN. THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED
SUNDAY WHEN A FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH.

ALL THE MODELS STILL HAVE THINGS MOSTLY DRY ALOFT SUNDAY. THIS MAKES
THE HIGH MET POPS LOOK VERY UNREALISTIC. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
IS AGREEMENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN IS UNLIKELY BUT
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAV POPS CAPTURE THIS
THINKING WELL.

GIVEN THE SAME ISSUES OF DRY AIR ALOFT BUT A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE
RELATIVELY LOW MAV AND MEX POPS SEEM GOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARENT GOING TO FALL MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. SUNDAY WILL HAVE A WARMER START THAN SATURDAY. EVEN
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS DONT BRING IN THE FRONT UNTIL LATE.
SUNDAY HIGHS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SAYING ALL ALONG.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONVERGES. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTING NEAR FRONTS IT WONT BE CHANGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODELS DEPICT A QUASIZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND THIS IS ABOUT WHERE THE AGREEMENTS
ENDS. RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LEAVE
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED. APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH WEAK WAVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS BACK NORTHWARD.
ANY PRECIP LATE IN THE WEEK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THINGS AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT MADE A FEW CHANGES
HERE AND THERE TO MINIMIZE BROAD BRUSH POPS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND
040 TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF STATES RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL GO WITH ONLY
LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 160-180 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS TONIGHT. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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