Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 282015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
415 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Warm and dry weather is expected to start the weekend as High
pressure east of Indiana allows pulls warm southerly breezes into
the state. This will result in well above normal temperatures
through the weekend.

A quick but weak cold front is expected to sag across Indiana from
the Upper midwest on Sunday. This will result in an increase in
cloud cover along with cooler...but still above normal
temperatures on Sunday. A few rain showers will also be
possible...mainly in northeastern parts of Central Indiana.

Another strong High pressure system will sweep into the Great
Lakes by Monday. This will once again allow warmer air dry air to
arrive in Central Indiana...keeping temperatures above seasonal
normals for much of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 201

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows Strong High pressure
in place across Southeastern Ohio...with southerly return surface
flow in place across Indiana. Visible Satellite Imagery shows
high cloud streaming into Central indiana from the NW as weak but
broad ridging in place over the northern plains builds eastward.

Main forecast challenge tonight will be temperatures.

Broad warm air advection pattern looks to remain in place as High
pressure remains set up east of Indiana...and low pressure was in
place over Ontario. This will continue the dry and warm
southwesterly flow into Indiana. Forecast soundings and Time
Height Sections continue to suggest a dry column overnight. With
decent mixing and good warm air advection overnight will trend
lows toward the warmer of the guidance.


.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Dry and pleasant weather will be expected on Saturday again as
southwesterly flow is expected to persist. as High pressure
settles across the southeastern states. As forecast soundings
remain dry on Saturday with unreachable convective
temperatures...will continue with mostly sunny skies and highs at
or slightly above guidance.

A Cold front over Wisconsin will begin to sag southward into
Indiana on Late Saturday Night and Sunday. A moderate short wave
aloft will accompany this feature...providing some forcing.
Forecast soundings respond by saturating in the wake of the front
as an overrunning situation begins take shape. Best dynamics
remain across the north and easter parts of the forecast area and
will focus pops there...but keep the pop mention to mainly sunday.
Otherwise will aim for increasing clouds lows at or above mavmos
on Saturday night as the front approaches. Given the expected
cloud cover on Sunday along with the cold air advection and rain
chances will trend highs on Sunday cooler than mavmos.

The cold front sags farther south on Sunday night and Monday as a
quick moving area of high pressure sweeps through the Great Lakes.
Again Forecast soundings return to a dry column with unreachable
convective temperatures. Thus will again trend toward partly
cloudy skies with temps at or above mavmos given the warm air
advection pattern.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Weak ridging aloft will result in dry conditions early in the
extended period. The pattern will change by Tuesday night though
as a frontal boundary becomes stationary over the forecast area.
Light rain showers will be possible across the northern counties
on Tuesday night, but best chances for widespread rain will be
from Wednesday night through Thursday as another cold front tracks
across central Indiana. Temperatures will be well above normal for
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs topping off in the mid 70s to low
80s. Thursday, temperatures will remain above normal but will cool
into the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, overnight lows will
generally be in the 50s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 28/2100Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 415 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period with high
pressure in place across the Ohio Valley. The only threat will be
possible low level wind shear overnight.





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