Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
AND ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

AS OF 0030Z A LINE HAD REACHED THE CENTRAL CWA. NEW CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO WHAT MODEL QPF HAS
BEEN INDICATING. THAT IS...PRECIPITATION WONT END UNTIL QUITE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN A FRONT NOW CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BRINGS IN
DRIER AIR.

THE HIGH POPS FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST LOOK GOOD. CONDITIONS ARE
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH THE FORECAST NEEDS TO CONTAIN THUNDER.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION PROGRESSES.

SINCE THE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING ABOUT AS THE EARLIER FORECASTER
EXPECTED...THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOULD WORK OUT WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ONLY CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LARGE...EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS RESULTING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...DRYING OUT
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SHOWING UNATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY SUNNY NIGHTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED AMID THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND LOWS AT OR
BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL A BLEND WILL
WORK NICELY WITH A SLOW WARNING TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WILL
NOTE HERE THAT MAVMOS HIGHS ON SUNDAY APPEAR A BIT WARM WITH
EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE...INDICATING VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AFTER 09Z AND IND AND
BMG AFTER 12Z. RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST
THE STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF LAF AT 06Z...IND AND BMG AROUND 08Z
AND BMG AROUND 09Z. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MOMENT TO SEE IF
VCTS...VCSH OR A TEMPO OF EITHER LOOK LIKE THE BEST BET.

COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATOCU WITH THE FRONT...BUT PREFER SCATTERED
MVFR WITH VFR CEILINGS. THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE VFR DIURNAL
CEILINGS AT IND AND LAF WITH ONLY SCATTERED VFR AT HUF AND BMG BASED
ON CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JH

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