Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 162022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
322 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.UPDATE...The AVIATION section has been
updated below.


Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A southwestern system will lift northeast across central Indiana on
Sunday. This system combined with a moist atmosphere will result in
widespread rain showers on Sunday. Also, a frontal system will bring
another threat of showers to the area late next week. Otherwise,
zonal flow aloft will result in mostly dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Most areas will even see 50s on Tuesday.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Good confidence in another dry night tonight as central Indiana will
be in between high pressure over the eastern states and an
approaching southwestern system. Southerly winds should keep
temperatures above freezing over most locales overnight per the


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

The main focus for the short term will be on the weather Sunday as a
southwestern system lifts northeast over the area.

Models are in good agreement that an upper southwest system will
lift northeast across central Indiana Sunday afternoon. MOdel rh
time sections were showing deep moisture overspreading from
southwest to northeast Sunday. Model time sections were also showing
strong lift associated with the system. So, likely pops from
Forecast Builder look good on Sunday. Would not rule out a brief
rain and snow mix at the start as the initially dry low levels will
support evaporative cooling of any rain drops.

Will not rule out a few rain showers north on MOnday as a Great
Lakes trough shears out in zonal flow aloft. Otherwise, look for dry
weather with continued above normal temperatures per the blend. Low
level thicknesses and plenty of sunshine support well above normal
highs, mostly in the 50s on Tuesday. Normal highs for this time of
year are in the upper 30s.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

ECMWF pushes a quick moving area of lower pressure across Kentucky
and Tennessee on Tuesday Night through Thursday. This feature
should bring precipitation to areas south of Central
Indiana as our area remains dry and under the influence of high
pressure stretching from the upper midwest through the Great

Better Chances for precipitation look to arrive on Friday as a
low pressure system moves from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes...dragging a cold front across Indiana. Forecast builder has
inserted pops here which seems quite reasonable. Overall look for
temperatures to be at or above seasonal normals.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 162100Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 322 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFr Conditions are expected for much of this TAF period.

SW flow in place across the forecast area will continue to provide
a flow of warm and dry air to the taf sites. A Strong pressure
gradient in place across the area will result some gusty winds
this afternoon. Time heights and forecast soundings reveal a dry
column through Sunday morning. Thus VFR until at least then.

A strong short wave will then push into the Ohio valley on Sunday
morning and afternoon. Ample moisture and lift will be available.
Time heights and forecast soundings trend toward saturation and
precipitation after 18Z Sun. Thus a trend toward MVFR CIGS and
rain will be expected after 15Z.




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