Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181913
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
213 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Cloudy skies for the entire area the rest of the day with a
lingering drizzle or mist north of U.S 30. Highs this afternoon
will remain in the mid to upper 30s with a few spots reaching the
low 40s and lows tonight in the lower 30s. A bit warmer still on
Thursday with highs 45 to 50. Rain chances return Thursday night
into Friday, though it will remain unseasonably warm through the
weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Drab and quite short term as low level anticyclone over srn IL
shifts east into WV overnight. While some erosion in low cloud
deck noted over wrn/cntrl IL per vis imagery...doubt it will
carry downstream as low level subsidence inversion remains quite
stout per nearby 12Z raob data and will back away from prior cloud
trends.

Otherwise more substantive deep layer subsidence expected on Thu as
low level ridge axis weakens overhead under ramping sw flow aloft.
Thus partial insolation along with swelling low level thermal
ridging will allow most areas to push toward or exceed 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Warm/wet and more april like pattern to continue this period as
active sw flow aloft persists across the ern half of the US. Lead
disturbance over ne NM this aftn will wrapup into the upper
midwest before shearing out. As this sys carries ewd Thu
night...vigorous low level theta-e/moisture surge expected to race
newd into the lakes with cat pops warranted late Thu night-Fri
morning w-e.

Secondary sw disturbance follows in quickly behind lead wave late
Fri as tertiary sw amplifies ewd underneath through the mid MS
valley this weekend. While some potential for waa induced rain
possible Sat aftn far better chcs relegated to Sat night timed
with newd pivot of upper trough axis and weakening low level jet.
Muddle signals thereafter with track/wwd wrap of eventual deep
atlantic moisture tap into third sys and will defer to blend
given signal noise at this range. Regardless winter remains holed
up across AK/nrn Canada with continued much above normal temps
this period swd across the ern US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Visibilities beginning to increase from south to north this
afternoon but low ceilings will persist the rest of the day
keeping the terminals in IFR to low MVFR. A gradual improvement in
flight conditions is expected overnight for the forecast area and
terminals are expected to move into MVFR tonight and by tomorrow
VFR conditions are likely.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Heidelberger
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Heidelberger


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