Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 301918
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
318 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains.
There is a risk of severe storms south of Highway 24 this
afternoon into early this evening. Showers will taper off from
west to east Friday as the low departs. High pressure will build
into the Midwest Saturday into Sunday providing fair weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Center of low pressure near Quincy IL as of 19z will gradually edge
east-northeast into northern IN by later tonight and into northern
OH/Lake Erie by Friday as closed 500 mb low wobbles east through the
OH Valley. This track will allow the system warm front now over
central IL/IN to mix northeast into far southern zones later this
aftn/eve (south of Hwy 24). Continued low level theta-e advection,
weak elevated instability, and deep layered forcing within a leading
southerly LLJ core should keep at least scattered showers/storms
(small hail possible) going into the evening near and north of this
warm front. There remains a threat for an isolated severe storm from
Marion IN to Lima OH (southeast of Hwy 24) btw 20-02z near warm
front given favorable kinematics/low lvl shear and potential for
some weak MLCAPE increasing to above 500 j/kg. A brief
tornado/hail/damaging winds will be possible here if any low
centroid/discrete cells or line segments can interact with this
warm front.

Deep moisture plume/LLJ will push off to the east by later tonight-
Friday bringing an end to any thunder/heavier rain chances.
Unfortunately cool/cloudy, and at times showery, conditions will
persist in trailing deformation area, especially over far ne IN/nw
OH/sc Lower MI where subtle TROWAL/trough feature may allow more
widespread rain to continue through the day on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This weekend will feature seasonable temps and mainly dry conditions
as low level anticyclonic flow briefly builds in wake of system
exiting to off the Mid Atlantic coast by Saturday. The next in a
series of systems in this active pattern will bring rain chances
back into the forecast Sunday night/Monday and again toward
Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures will average near to slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low pressure will continue to approach the area, and after a brief
window of no rain, showers and thunderstorms will come back in for
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have the capability of
reducing conditions into MVFR and possibly IFR within heavier rain
and lower LCLs. The warm front will slowly push from south to
north through the area by early overnight, thus the greater chance
for severe weather is at FWA where the residence time for heating
and accumulation of instability will be greater. The main impacts
will be gusty wind and hail. Moisture will remain around the
region overnight with the low pressure system still nearby and,
with the weaker winds, there could be areas of fog that form with
a greater chance at SBN than FWA. Stronger winds begin to come
back in right around daybreak tomorrow as the low pressure system
vacates the region pushing the moisture out early, though some low
stratus could still remain.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller


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