Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 062341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND...STRONGER SYSTEM...WILL BRING
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

4-5MB/3HR FALL/RISE COUPLET APPROACHING ALONG WITH AMPLE EARLY
MARCH INSOLATION LEADING TO LWR/MID 20KT GUSTS THIS AFTN WITH
CONTD UPWARD TREND OF SFC TEMPS WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 22 UTC.
LACK OF FULL DECOUPLE/CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS
FROM PLUNGING OVERNIGHT...AND FAVORED 3 HRLY TEMP CURVE MODIFIED
ONLY PARTLY TOWARDS LATEST BLENDS INCLUDING SHORT/HIGHER RES
GUID. NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FIRST UPSTREAM HIGH BELTED
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SFC LOW MOVG THROUGH NERN JAMES BAY. THIS
FRONTAL BNDRY/ASSOCD WAVE BECOMES STRETCHED/DILUTED IN DEFERENCE
TO STRONGER UPSTREAM/SRN SASK CLIPPER. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS TMRW
ANTICIPATED GIVEN NEAR IDENTICAL ISALLOBARIC
DIFFERENTIAL...PERHAPS A BIT HIR OWING TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXED
LYR. HELD LINE ON POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER A BLINDED
BLENDED APPROACH AS MODELS APPEAR OVERZEALOUS IN BLYR
SATURATION...ESPCLY IN LIGHT OF DRY REGIONAL/UPSTREAM DD/PWAT AND
LACK OF SNOWPACK RELEASE...SAVE FOR MINOR SUBLIMATION AND MELT
WHERE SNOWPACK/PILES ARE IN CONTACT WITH PAVED SFCS.
FURTHERMORE...SOUTHERN TRAILING FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD
WITH SAT SYSTEM BECOMES QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACRS SRN GRTLKS LEAVING
PRIMARY SUCCINCT HFC TO TRACK FM LK SUPR-LK ONT 12 UTC SAT-00 UTC
SUN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH GRADUAL RETREAT OF NRN
LONGWAVE TROF AND RETURN TOWARD NORMALCY/STRONG INSOLATION ACRS
SRN TIER STATES. GIVEN 925MB 0C ISOTHERM NEWD PENETRATION INTO
ALL BUT FAR NERN CWA BY LATE SAT AFTN HAVE CONTD SLIGHT UPWARD
NUDGE TO PRIOR FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING/LOWER AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW RELAXES AND POLAR
JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL AFFORD A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING TREND AND GRADUAL MELT OFF OF SNOW WITH
MID-WEEK HIGHS LIKELY APPROACHING 50F. ONLY THREAT...ALBEIT
LOW...FOR ANY LIGHT PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
THE NORTH AS CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION TIED TO A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH. DRY OTHERWISE WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
POSSIBLE BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH A TROF SWWD INTO IA THIS
EVE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST MODELS ARE TOO MOIST IN LOW LEVELS ALONG
THE TROF... THUS... MAINTAINED VFR FCST IN TAFS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE TO
SERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING CDFNT MOVG THROUGH NRN
INDIANA IN THE AFTN. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE EVIDENT IN THE VCNTY OF
THIS FRONT SO FCST MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING TO W-NW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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