Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 031602 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY THIS MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN AND STORMS REMAINS JUST NORTH OF. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MODELS INDICATE
THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY CWA DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY COULD COMBINE
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BRING SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL HELP LIMIT SOME
HEATING...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS DECENTLY
AND ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE ARE FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECT THOSE TO BE GONE SHORTLY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. OTHERWISE
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN SITE. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTION WE CAN EXPECT
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THAT USUALLY MEANS A RATHER UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES/MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REGION UNDER ANOMALOUS FLOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI PRIOR TO DAWN. FOR TODAY EXPECT AN MCS TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. UPPER JET ENERGY
SHOWS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. LOW TO MIDLEVEL JET
ENERGY WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING GOOD FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS THE MCS COMES DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION LOOKING AT THE FOLLOWING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH...UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES AND MODELS
SHOWS SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE GO
INTO TONIGHT. WPC HAS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTH
HALF OF THE REGION SO WILL PUT A LIMITED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN THE LIMITED SEVERE AREA FOR TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO WPC
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR NOW. MODELS SHOWS THAT AS THE MCS PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF INCREASED THERMAL CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN BRINGING THE MCS
THROUGH THE REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. SO WITH THIS MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF SOME STRONG
STORMS/MCS STORM CLUSTERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL BE AIDED BY SOME DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME
CONTINUED SHEAR. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LIMITED SEVERE RISK FOR RIGHT
NOW. SPC HAS ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE SOUTH HALF.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR TODAY AS WELL AS MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY WITH
NORMAL LOWS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED THE BEST POPS WILL BE IN
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE BEST POPS WILL BE
IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA FOR SATURDAY AS WELL AS I-20 CORRIDOR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY SUPPRESSED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR EARLY JULY (AND THE ATTENDANT SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR REGION) WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE REGIME
CHANGES...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT (AND THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY). THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE DECLINING BY THIS POINT AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING PROBLEMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO
QUITE YET. OF COURSE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HEAT WILL BE
TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT ON INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INFLUENCE FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK IS NOW PRETTY GOOD.
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DESPITE RIDGE SUPPRESSION...BUT THE
CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. FORTUNATELY...MOIST SOILS IN MANY AREAS WILL WORK AGAINST
TEMPERATURES SPIKING UPWARDS QUICKLY IN REACTION TO THE CHANGING
WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEAT TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO PUSH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  73  86  72 /  27  52  61  56
MERIDIAN      92  72  87  69 /  29  54  51  57
VICKSBURG     89  73  86  72 /  29  57  61  58
HATTIESBURG   94  75  90  72 /  14  22  45  47
NATCHEZ       90  75  87  72 /  26  30  60  44
GREENVILLE    87  72  84  71 /  64  69  68  54
GREENWOOD     87  72  83  70 /  62  70  62  55

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW/17/BB



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