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000
FXUS64 KJAN 201505
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION TO BE ON THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OBSERVED FROM
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. REGIONALLY...STRATUS HAD LIFTED TO STRATOCU ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MIX OUT. CLOUD STREAKS
SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWED SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS...WHICH
HINDERED ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA AND A COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED
STORM SYSTEM WAS NOTED FROM KANSAS THROUGH WEST TEXAS...WHERE IT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LINE. THIS COMBINATION WAS BRINGING IN SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.  READINGS ACROSS THE REGION WERE
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK TO RISE TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR TODAY AS WE GET BACK TO OUR SUMMER LIKE
REGIME. MADE ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS FOR CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT SOME
MORE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS COMING FROM THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM ALONG
WITH SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS./17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...410 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE
NOSING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND A LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WAS
MAINTAINING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THAT WAS HELPING TO SPREAD A
LAYER OF STRATUS NORTHWARD AGAIN THIS EARLY MORNING AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRATUS DECK. THUS...WL
START OFF WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS MORNING AND TOP OUT WARMER THAN
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS OUR CWA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TODAY AND THE EXPECTED INSOLATION SHOULD HELP TEMPS TOP
OUT NEAR 90 AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

COME TUESDAY MORNING A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORCING NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOWER 70 DEGREE
DEW POINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AROUND 2500J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 30KTS BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM...LI OF
-10 AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS NW OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HWO.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PWATS
FALL WELL BE LOW AN INCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER RH`S ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
80S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE MORNING
WITH VFR SCT-BKN DECKS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER 08Z WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...LCLY
LIFR...REDEVELOPING IN LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  68  89  68 /   2   3  25  30
MERIDIAN      90  65  90  65 /   2   3  17  14
VICKSBURG     90  71  88  69 /   3   9  30  40
HATTIESBURG   90  68  91  66 /   3   3  11  10
NATCHEZ       88  70  88  69 /   5   5  16  29
GREENVILLE    89  71  88  70 /   3  14  41  60
GREENWOOD     90  69  89  69 /   3  12  33  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/15