Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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980
FXUS64 KJAN 302325 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
625 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

A cold front will move from west to east through central and
eastern portions of the region tonight and should trigger isolated
showers and perhaps even a few storms across most sites (except
for GLH) through this evening. The best chance of any impact
enough to hamper flight operations will be after dark around
GTR/CBM. Dry weather will prevail at all sites late tonight
through tomorrow with mostly VFR conditions on tap and winds
veering to the west (and remaining not overly strong). The one
sizable exception to this forecast should be around PIB/HBG late
tonight through daybreak tomorrow when lingering moisture will
likely yield low clouds and fog in the LIFR to IFR range. But
these low flight cats at those sites should improve back to VFR by
mid morning tomorrow. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday...

Expected weather for today has not panned out in large part due to
the early morning coastal MCS. This has stabilized our atmosphere
and failed to allow sufficient heating and instability to be in
place ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is moving
across the western part of the forecast area this afternoon. Some
showers are trying to develop along/ahead of this front but are
struggling greatly to do so in our area. A little further north,
there has been some better development of showers, but again nothing
significant. Temperatures today, under copious cloud cover, have
reached into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain has lingered in
portions of eastern Mississippi through much of the day, which has
really hampered instability in that region.

For the remainder of today into this evening, expect that the front
will continue to cross the CWA and some showers will try to develop
along the front. There could even be a thunderstorm but overall the
severe risk is very very low. All rain activity should be out of the
region by about 10pm, if not sooner.

As today`s weather system pushes off to the north and east, upper
ridging will build in for tomorrow. This will spell warm, dry and
sunny conditions. Highs tomorrow will reach the lower 80s in the
north and into the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. /28/

Friday night through next Wednesday,

In the wake of the last system a quiet period of weather is expected
across the ArkLaMiss Friday night into Saturday. Upper ridging will
build over the region on Saturday as we get quickly back to return
low level flow.

Meanwhile an upper trough will be pushing into the Plains by Sunday.
Moisture transport will increase ahead of this system as pwats go to
anomalous levels over around 2 inches by Monday. There will be
enough instability for thunderstorms to spread across the region for
Sunday into Monday. A split upper jet will provide good divergence
over the region, vertical totals will be around 30-35, and some good
deep layer shear. This will provide the ingredients for some severe
potential as well as some locally heavy rainfall for Sunday into
Monday.  Models have a difference of an opinion on rainfall as the
GFS models seems to be the most aggressive on some heavy rainfall
potential, while the other models are much more moderate with the
amounts. So with this in mind will keep the slight risk of severe
storms for the west for Sunday into Monday. The models had some
minor differences on the evolution of this system. The rains will
exit the region by Tuesday.

As we move into midweek another upper trough will quickly approach
from the plains. This will be associated with another pacific front.
Anafrontal rains will cross the region on Wednesday into Wednesday
night with some elevated instability. Daily highs will be generally
above normal with readings in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the
50s and 60s. Looking ahead expect dry conditions for the remainder
of the work week. We will get enough moisture return for some
small chances of rain next weekend./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  80  54  84 /  12   0   0   2
Meridian      52  79  52  83 /  35   0   0   2
Vicksburg     51  80  54  85 /   3   0   0   2
Hattiesburg   53  83  54  86 /  15   0   0   1
Natchez       53  82  56  85 /   6   0   0   3
Greenville    50  75  53  81 /   1   0   0   2
Greenwood     50  75  52  81 /  15   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

17/28/BB



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