Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 172017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FRONT NOW HANGS JUST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION NOW
HAS HALTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...THIS COMPLEX WILL
APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THE CLOSER IT
GETS TO OUR CWA. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
AREA BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EXIST IN THE DELTA FOR
TOMORROW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  64  91 /   8  18  10   4
MERIDIAN      65  89  63  90 /   6  11  11   4
VICKSBURG     66  91  62  91 /   7  20   9   4
HATTIESBURG   68  90  68  91 /   6  26  17   8
NATCHEZ       69  88  66  88 /   9  29  13   5
GREENVILLE    68  89  66  90 /  12  18   9   3
GREENWOOD     66  90  64  90 /  12  17  10   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/CME/15/





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.