Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 182045
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NATCHEZ...BUT THIS ENERGY WILL CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY WITH OTHER ENERGY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION...BRINGING AN END
TO RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MS CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.

SKIES MAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINT/CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWS LIKELY TO FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON
RELAXATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THINKING FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
IS GENERALLY THE SAME AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

THE TAIL END OF EASTER WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM BUT RAIN AND
GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN AND PEAK TUES MRNG
INTO THE TUES AFTN AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERING PATTERN PROGRESSIVENESS
DEPICTED BETWEEN EC/GFS/GEM. THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A LOW AMPLIFIED EASTWARD PROGRESSING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY SUNDAY EVENING. H7-H5 TROUGHING WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH USHERS A WEAK
BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE REGION. TOP-DOWN MOISTURIZING STILL APPEARS TO
BE SLOW GOING MONDAY AND HAVE SLOWED TIMING JUST A BIT MORE LIKE
YESTERDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE MON MRNG AND
AFTN. BEST COVERAGE (SCATTERED AT BEST) WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3" WITH 500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE PRESENT. INSTABILITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ENOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY UNDER MODERATE QG LIFT
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AND WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD...SBCAPE
VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG SHOULD BUILD AND ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OF
GENERAL TSTORMS LATE MRNG TUES INTO THE AFTN. SHEAR AND OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT POTENCY OF SAID TSTORMS TO REMAIN
SUB-STRONG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RISK
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN RIVERS TO SLOWLY ABATE. WILL KEEP
HWO CLEAR FOR THIS SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

FOR WED-FRI...THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED NEAR THE COAST WILL
RETURN NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND PARENT
TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THIS
FEATURE AND THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE
ARKLAMISS. THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOW 80S AND LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SITES IN EASTERN MS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  76  52  81 /   5   1   5   4
MERIDIAN      49  77  49  80 /   9   0   3   3
VICKSBURG     51  77  51  81 /   5   2   5   4
HATTIESBURG   50  78  52  82 /  11   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       51  76  53  81 /   5   3   3   4
GREENVILLE    53  77  53  81 /   5   2   6  11
GREENWOOD     52  77  52  81 /   5   2   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/ALLEN/28




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