Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 272123
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...tonight through Sunday night...afternoon water vapor
imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over the central
plains. This low has helped develop a large area of storms that
extended from northwest Mississippi southwest across central
Louisiana and across east Texas. The strongest storms closest to our
cwa were noted just west of our northeast Louisiana parishes. Wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph along with frequent lightning and a brief heavy
downpour will be possible over our western most zones during the next
several hours but elsewhere the potential for any strong to severe
storms looks to remain low. This activity will weaken as it spreads
farther east into our cwa as ridging surface and aloft still work to
limit convection over east Mississippi. The closed low will lift more
to the northeast and open up tonight. Subtle shortwaves in the
continued southwest flow aloft and the moist air mass with pwats in
excess of an inch and three quarters over our west, will make is hard
to rule out additional convective development through the night. Our
eastern zones should remain dry until saturday. The open trough will
be well north of our cwa Saturday but deeper moisture is expected to
be back over our whole cwa. Diurnally driven rain chances are
expected areawide but will end early with the loss of daytime
heating. Saturday night is still expected to be dry for the most
part. Sunday, a moist air mass will still reside over our cwa but
mid level riding will be strengthening just to our west in response
to a deepening trough over the western CONUS. Diurnal heating is
expected to lead to the development of a few storms and wl carry
slight chance pops across our whole cwa. This activity will again be
diurnally driven and weaken with the loss of heating. /22/

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A persistent typical summer-
like forecast is expected Monday through Wednesday with warmer than
normal temperatures and a moist air mass remaining in place. Slightly
greater coverage of afternoon and early evening storms are expected
over the western portions of our cwa. There are significant
differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the possible development
of a closed low to our west but both models suggest an approaching
trough and increasing rain chances over our cwa for the end of the
week. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...expect VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday.
Extensive mid level cloudiness is expected, with the potential for
some lower level ceilings in the early morning that will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, it looks like most of the SHRA/TSRA
approaching from the west will diminish as it tries to move into
more stable air in the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  88  69  90 /  24  19  13  23
Meridian      67  88  66  89 /  13  17  13  20
Vicksburg     68  88  69  90 /  62  26  12  20
Hattiesburg   69  90  67  91 /  13  17  13  16
Natchez       69  87  69  88 /  67  25  12  21
Greenville    69  86  69  89 /  60  40  12  18
Greenwood     68  87  68  89 /  38  32  12  20

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/EC



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