Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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661
FXUS64 KJAN 270218 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
918 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Expect most of the convection to dissipate by 10pm this evening. Some
redevelopment is possible after 06Z though in southern MS/LA in the
vicinity of the weak low pressure core. Locations in the southwest
CWA are already in the mid 70s due to the recent rainfall. These
temps will most likely remain steady through the night as cloud cover
will remain overcast and rain chances neverfully disappear in those
areas. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s everywhere again. Adjusted
the pops for the rest of the night and removed any chance for
thunder. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
Much of the precip has dissipated with what`s left over
the NW as of 02z. Look for the focus to quickly shift to MVFR
ceilings for several of the sites between 03-06z then a transition
to IFR at those same locations between 06-08z. Precip activity will
likely get going again later and closer to sunrise and then expand
through morning and the afternoon. Look for the restricted ceilings
to linger with improving to a mix of MVFR/VFR by 17-19z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Overall pattern looks to remain mostly unchanged through
the period with the prevailing westerlies remaining over the northern
CONUS and elongated ridge over the southern CONUS. In the elongated
ridge, a weakness will exist over the lower MS river valley in the
form of a cyclonic shear axis. Presently, at the lower end of the
shear axis over southeast LA exists a mid level cold core low and its
associated surface trough. Deep, tropical moisture is associated with
these features over the northern Gulf of Mexico with precipitable
waters running close to 2.4 inches. This moisture has been surging
northward in the flow around these features and should lead to a
relative ease of convective development due to sufficient convergence
in the low level wind field, as has been the case already over the
southeast. Abundance of moisture will lead to locally heavy rainfall,
especially considering how slow storm movements will be.

The mid level cold core and surface trough look to continue moving
northward through the weakness, eventually becoming absorbed into it
by Thursday. Until then, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms should be the rule Wednesday and Thursday during the
heat of the day with a continuation, although less coverage, at night
due to sustained low level convergence near the surface trough.

Daytime heating during the first half of the forecast period will be
tempered somewhat from what we have been experiencing lately due to
the increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Beyond Thursday, a good scattering of mainly diurnal convection
looks to continue over the region in proximity to the semi-stationary
shear axis with the best coverage over the north in the deepest
moisture. As convective converage begins to lessen over the weekend,
temperatures will begin an upward creep eventually returning to the
mid 90s by the first part of next week./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  86  74  88 /  20  66  27  57
Meridian      74  91  73  92 /  12  52  24  36
Vicksburg     74  85  74  87 /  29  86  51  70
Hattiesburg   75  87  74  92 /  22  62  23  36
Natchez       74  84  74  87 /  46  78  33  59
Greenville    76  89  75  85 /  36  75  65  77
Greenwood     75  86  74  84 /  50  79  54  72

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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