Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT DEVELOPING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED
ON A CONSENSUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~100-300 J/KG
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE) FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
THAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD OVERWHELM THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT AS POOR AS
WE WILL SEE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE KEPT OUT A
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH.

OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING
STORM SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FELT IN THE
ARKLAMISS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER...FOLKS
HEADING OUT FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REMINDED IT IS STILL
WINTER. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL REVEAL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION GIVEN
POSITIVE SFC-BASED CAPE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
/EC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY
PRESENTED THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SNOW BEING
POSSIBLE OR AT LEAST THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SYSTEMS RARELY CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY/DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z MONDAY. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CARRYING SNOW UNTIL 15Z FOR
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL OUTPUT SHOW THE
MOISTURE MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING BRIEFLY
BEYOND 12Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER WAY. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AREA DRY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME LOWER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BRIEFLY BRINGING SOME BRISK
CANADIAN AIR. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TWO
UPPER TROUGHS PASS VERY QUICKLY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THE
EARLIER RUN HAD THE FEATURE INLAND BUT 6Z RUN HAS THE SURFACE
FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF...WHICH COULD BRING COLD
AIR AND WINTER PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. DID NOT MENTION ANY
WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW MORE RUNS MAY BE
NEEDED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY HANG ON WITH
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE GLH/JAN/HBG
CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  48  66  35 /   1  23  88  59
MERIDIAN      58  44  64  38 /   1  14  75  56
VICKSBURG     60  50  65  35 /   2  39  91  53
HATTIESBURG   61  48  67  42 /   2  17  61  50
NATCHEZ       61  51  67  36 /   1  36  86  57
GREENVILLE    55  47  61  31 /   1  49  95  37
GREENWOOD     57  48  61  32 /   1  26  91  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/7




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