Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 030858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
TAP. WITH STRONG MIXING EXPECT AFTERNOON RH`S TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TODAY...BUT
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT GRASS FIRES THAT HAVE BEEN
OCCURING...WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR TODAY IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THOSE AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THOSE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S OVER MOST THE AREA./15/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER
TO END THE WEEK AND THEN HOTTER AND DRIER AGAIN SUNDAY.  COME
WEDNESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK TO INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE BACK
OVER OUR REGION. TWO INCH PWS AND LOWER 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUR CWA WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE 594DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA TO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER
OUR REGION ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. GREATEST
POPS WL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND RESULT IN CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE
594DAM RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR CWA AND LIMIT
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN
BY THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  72  99  74 /   3   2   8  12
MERIDIAN      98  67 100  70 /   3   2   6  14
VICKSBURG     99  70  99  72 /   2   3   7  10
HATTIESBURG   99  73  99  74 /   9   9  15   9
NATCHEZ       97  73  97  73 /   8   8  17  11
GREENVILLE    98  70 100  74 /   2   1   6   8
GREENWOOD     97  69 100  72 /   2   1   5  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/22



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