Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
354 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

An area of low pressure is lifting northeast into the great lakes
this morning with a trailing cold front extending southward
across Illinois into western Tennessee. A band of showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms is working into central Kentucky
presently, left over from the convection in the lower Mississippi
river valley yesterday. This band is encountering very little, if
any instability as it continues to press eastward. This activity
will push across eastern Kentucky this morning. The risk for any
severe storms is greatly diminishing as instability remains much
too limited. While the showers should exit by midday, there likely
will not be enough time to destabilize behind the departing
showers, so the front will continue to press on through the area
during the evening hours. As a surface ridge builds in tonight, we
should see slightly cooler temperatures with a slight ridge to
valley split. While ridge will slide eastward on Friday, we will
remain dry as southerly flow begins to pick up. Models are likely
over doing the moisture advection on Friday with a due south flow.
This will likely keep dewpoints a bit lower than models anticipate
and further keep rain chances at bay.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

The models remain in good agreement with an amplified trough to
rule across the central Conus into the middle of next week. A
cutoff low will start out across the Four Corners Region and
gradually amplify as it moves southeast and then pivots northeast
into the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes region by early
next week, with a positively tilted trough left in its wake by
Wednesday.

Friday night...a warm front will be situated close to the Ohio
River. A strengthening low level jet will pump in higher PWATs,
with convection breaking out near and towards the cool side of the
front. For eastern Kentucky, the Bluegrass will have the better
chance POPs, with lesser chances towards the southeast. Confidence
in a severe threat remains lower, given the overnight timing;
however, ample shear will be in place, so will have to see how
things evolve over the next 24 hours.

The warm front will lift north of the Ohio River this weekend,
keeping POPs more limited across eastern Kentucky. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 80s, with Saturday records in jeopardy. A
strong cold front will approach and move through the area Sunday
night into Monday. Low level shear will be through the roof, but
instability will be modest. Will continue to mention gusty winds
during this time frame.

Dry weather will follow by Monday night and looks to last through
Tuesday. Another front will develop in the vicinity of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a renewed threat of POPs.
Well above average temperatures will be felt through this weekend,
with values returning closer to normal readings for this time of
the year behind the cold front next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

Low level wind shear will continue just ahead of an approaching
cold front overnight. As the front moves on through, a complex of
showers and a few thunderstorms will push east across the area. In
the wake of this activity and the front, we may see a brief period
of MVFR cigs. These MVFR cigs will return to VFR this afternoon
with VFR conditions remaining for the rest of the TAF forecast
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS



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