Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250752
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST NEARLY ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALOFT...A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ONE
BAND ARCING FROM INDIANA DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A
SECOND MORE BROKEN...BUT ALSO MORE INTENSE BAND IS ALIGNED SIMILARLY...
BUT ABOUT A 100 MILES FURTHER WEST. DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME PUNCH OUT OF THIS INITIAL BAND OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WEST OF I-75 HAVE MEASURED THUS FAR.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT
WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FORCING EXITS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S. A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.

SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW
SPOTS FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EAST
COAST BECOMING A CLOSED LOW. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE OH VALLEY AT LEAST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE FRONT RANGE AND
INTENSIFIES INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
CLOSING OFF AND THE LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA INTENSIFIES AND
CLOSES OFF AS WELL FORMING A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
SET IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE TELECONNECTIONS FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AS IT GOES NEGATIVE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND
THIS REPRESENTS A BLOCKING OR IMPEDED PATTERN. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WEST SETS UP AND STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF EAST KENTUCKY PUTTING
OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STANDS TO BE
A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS EAST AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH. MODELS LOOK TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY DISCERNING SPECIFIC
SURFACE FEATURES AS THE UPPER LOW SEEMS BRING A FEW WAVES INTO THE
AREA AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. IT SEEMS
THERE MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO AGREE ON THIS PATTERN...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ALSO LOOK TO THE MOST INTRIGUING AS WELL AS
MODELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING SPECIFICS BUT IN CONTRAST...HAD NO
PROBLEM STICKING WITH THE LIKELY POPS GIVEN BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS
THIS IS CERTAINLY A WET PATTERN. ALSO STAYED WITH WHAT THE MODEL ALL
BLEND WAS SHOWING WITH THE REST OF THE ELEMENTS. ON ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE PATTERN AND THE UNCERTAINTY THAT
PRECIP WILL END...WENT WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. ALSO KEPT THE INHERITED INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AND ENDING ALL PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER AT A CERTAIN
PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED HAS A LOW CHANCE. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS A TENDENCY TO BRINK ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WED AND THU TIME FRAME. ALSO FELT THAT THE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE MAX TEMPS INHERITED WERE A LITTLE LOW AS WELL BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP THEM IN FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL MOVE
IN BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
18Z. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LESS
TEMPORARILY IN ANY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A THREAT OF WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY COMMENCES THROUGH DAWN. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND IT. CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERING OUT
TOWARDS DUSK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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