Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 032352
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
652 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Starting to moisten up across the TN Valley this hour and showers
will continue to move NE toward the region overnight. This as
moisture streams north and the moisture begin to lower into the
lower levels overnight. Based on downstream obs precip is being
seen in areas with around a 7 to 8 kft deck at best. Given the
slower progression lowered POPs in the first few hours as better
moisture remains to our SW. Otherwise more minor updates to
latest obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet
weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening
through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended
a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances
of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An
area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our
weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period
will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on
Sunday in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a
series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of
precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The
first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern
Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This
system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through
Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday
night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and
one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday
morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should
experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on
Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A
third system, however, is on track to move across the area
Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring
quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In
fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most
of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and
Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the
departing area of low pressure.

Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday
and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in
the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an
area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day
and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose
dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the
week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for
most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border
perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established
on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30
degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will
likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow
sets up across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Pesky low deck remains in place over a portion of eastern KY this
evening, but there are some signs of improvement seen at JKL this
hour which seems to be along the periphery. IR SAT does show we
at least have some high clouds above that will continue to stream
into the region. Therefore the fluctuation from MVFR to VFR will
continue through the evening for the more northern and eastern
sites. The next issue will be moving through the night we do
expect clouds and moisture to continue to stream in from the SW.
This will lead to a top down approach to the cloud layers and
eventually we will see MVFR creep in from SW to NE through 12Z.
Also as we moisten up we will begin to see rain showers toward
dawn and perhaps some snow mixes in briefly before changing to all
rain. We could begin to see IFR conditions toward the end and
beyond the TAF period, as moisture continues to lower based on
the latest model sounding data. Winds are expected to remain light
through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ



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