Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271104 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
704 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Issued at 704 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Tweaked the forecast slightly to better account for this mornings
cloud cover and lingering rain showers. The new forecast will
reflect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with rain showers
linger north of the Mountain Parkway through 12Z or so this
morning. Once the rain is gone the rest of the day will feature
mostly clear skies, light winds, and below normal temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

A few rain showers will move across portions of eastern Kentucky
through around dawn this morning. The showers should be out of the
area by 12Z. The latest runs of the NAM12, GFS, and HRRR models,
along with the latest MOS data, all support this scenario, so the
forecast was modified accordingly to reflect this. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will persist through late this morning, with
the clouds expected to gradually scatter out and move out of the
area by late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, near calm winds,
and valley fog will be on tap for late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry
conditions will be on tap for Wednesday. Temperatures will
continue to run well below normal today, with highs in the low to
mid 70s anticipated. We should see a return to closer to normal
temperatures on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure settles
over the area. Highs on Wednesday should be able to climb into the
lower 80s for most locations. With clear and calm conditions
expected tonight, we may see some valleys fall into the upper 40s,
while the surrounding ridges drop into the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

A relatively dry air mass will still be in place at the start of
the period. However, surface high pressure will be to our east,
and flow around it will have advection of warm and moist air
underway. With mainly clear skies, this will promote ridge/valley
low temperature differences for at least the first couple of
nights. The increasing moisture will eventually lead to more
clouds and the possibility of precip. It begins with a slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Up until
that point the flow aloft will be weak and zonal. An upper low
dropping southeast toward the Great Lakes will cause some
buckling, with the westerlies dropping southward late in the week.
This allows a weakening cold front to drop to the Ohio Valley over
the weekend, presenting our best chance of rain on Saturday. The
upper low and trough lift out to the northeast late in the
weekend, and the surface front loses momentum and definition. Even
though no significant change in air mass is expected, the
probability of rain will drop off with the departure of the upper
level system at the start of the new week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites through the end of the
period. SYM is still having issues with its observations, so AMD
NOT SKED is still in effect there. A few rain showers may affect
SJS early this morning. After 12 or 13Z any remaining rain showers
should have dissipated or moved out of the area. Winds should be
light and variable through out the period.




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