Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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697
FXUS64 KLCH 300415
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1115 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...Radar now clear of any precip and satellite imagery
depicting clear skies overhead. This will remain the case through
tonight. Will see development of showers and a few thunderstorms
by late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Carrying
VCSH/VCTS accordingly at all terminals. Still expecting VFR to
prevail while winds remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1010 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection has come to an end across the area, with no additional
activity expected this evening. Updated wx/PoP grids to remove
evening rain chances. Also made some minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures, with readings over central LA already in the
mid/upper 70s, which is running cooler than the fcst. Forecast is
otherwise on target.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

AVIATION...Afternoon convection rapidly winding down and should
all be dissipated shortly. VFR expected overnight with clear to
mostly clear skies. Showers and a few thunderstorms should start
developing again toward late morning Saturday with scattered
activity continuing through the day.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Latest water vapor imagery and upr air analysis shows the weak
low pres trough aloft over ern TX. At the sfc, high pres was ridging
west acrs FL into the nrn Gulf. The weak pres gradient acrs the
area was producing in lt S/SW winds acrs the nw Gulf coast.
Showers and tstms have been more sctd this aftn, developing along
seabreeze and outflow boundary collisions. Outside of convection,
temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s while locations that
have had showers have cooled into the mid to upr 70s.

24

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing convection late this aftn should diminish during the evening
with sunset/loss of heating. Generally quiet conditions are
expected overnight, with partly cloudy skies and some isltd late
night/early morning streamer showers possible near the coast. A
warm and muggy night can be expected with low temperatures in the
mid/upr 70s.

For the next several days, convective coverage will be close to normal
during the daytime. The broad upper trough will begin to meander
toward cntl TX some as the subtropical ridge off the SE CONUS
builds west. The atmosphere will remain sufficiently moist with
precip water running between 1.8 and 2.0 inches, and with
instability enhanced by daytime heating, expect at least some sctd
convection along the seabreeze by early aftn. The highest POPs are
expected acrs Acadiana and the lower Atchafalaya Basin.

Rain chcs will trend down some early next week as the upr ridge
builds further over the area. Typical summertime temperatures can
be expected with lows in the mid/upper 70s and highs in the lower
90s. Daily heat index values should remain below advisory
criteria, but will still run in the 100-106 degree range.

24

MARINE...
Lt s to sw winds and low seas will continue through early next
week as high pres extends west acrs the nrn Gulf of Mexico. Higher
pres will begin to build west over the area aloft, with just isltd
to widely sctd showers and tstms possible mainly fm late night
through early morning.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  94  74  94 /  10  40  20  30
LCH  77  94  77  92 /  10  40  10  30
LFT  77  93  77  93 /  10  50  20  30
BPT  76  94  77  94 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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