Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 231129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For the 23/12Z TAF issuance.


Light rain band moving around the left over circulation of Cindy
will move across the KAEX TAF site through about 23/14Z with MVFR
conditions. For the remainder of the day at all TAF sites,
abundant tropical moisture left behind and daytime heating should
combine for a scattering of showers and storms. Away from
convection, ceilings at MVFR will become VFR by 18Z. Convection is
expected to diminish after 24/00Z with loss of daytime heating,
and mainly VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Abundant tropical moisture remains in place over the region this
morning with surface dewpoints currently in low 80s across a large
portion of SW Louisiana. The 00Z KLCH sounding recorded a PWAT
value of 2.17 inches which is just below average record values for
the end of June. GOES 16 derived imagery indicates PWAT values of
2+ inches over the coastal waters will continue to be advected
over the area today by the deep layer flow.

Model guidance indicates that a longwave trough will develop as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are picked up by a shortwave
trough progressing southeastward from northern Canada. An
associated surface low pressure and cold front will slowly sag
southward before undergoing frontolysis somewhere near or south of
the Gulf Coast. With abundant moisture in place over the region,
this front will result in increased rainfall chances through the
weekend. Current QPF totals for today through Sunday range from
1.5 to 3 inches with the highest totals generally along the I-10
corridor into Acadiana. However, given the slow progression of the
front and PWAT values remaining 1 to 2 sigma above normal, pockets
of 3 to 6 inches will certainly possible.

Drier continental air is forecast to filter in behind the cold
front on Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in precipitation chances
returning to near climatological values. However, increasing
onshore flow and moisture transport will result in rainfall
chances once again increasing for the second half of the week.


Onshore winds are forecast to decrease from around 20 knots this
morning to 10 to 15 knots by this evening, allowing for seas to
begin subsiding. Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast to
come to an end by mid-morning and Small Craft Exercise Caution
will continue for the outer coastal waters through this evening.
A weak front is forecast to move southward Saturday before
stalling over the coastal waters on Sunday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms being likely over the coastal waters
through early next week.


AEX  87  75  85  70 /  60  40  70  40
LCH  89  77  88  75 /  50  30  70  50
LFT  87  76  87  73 /  60  30  70  50
BPT  89  77  88  74 /  20  30  60  40


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT
     this evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for



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