Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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