Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 040435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE TNITE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PER LATEST HRRR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF INTO BPT AND LCH
BEFORE MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED VCTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE 4TH AS THE UPPER TROF BRINGS IN A COOL POOL ALOFT
AND ALLOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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