Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 241956
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
256 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
A weak upper level disturbance approaching from Texas
has spread primarily high clouds over the region allowing for
filtered sunshine this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure
remains, but is slowly moving east toward the Southeast US.
Temperatures in most locations at mid-afternoon were in the middle
and upper 70s.
Quiet weather is forecast through Tuesday night with no major
impacts. Models are in good agreement with developing a low pressure
over the central Plains and moving it toward the Great Lakes with
only slight differences in location and strength. A cold front
associated with this low will approach the Central Gulf Coast
drawing moisture northward over the area. This additional moisture
will allow for more clouds on Wednesday with perhaps scattered
showers later on Wednesday into Thursday.
Toward the end of the week, global models have come into better
agreement at least on timing with the handling of atmospheric energy
associated with a Pacific trough moving onshore along the West Coast
of the US and Canada late this week. Differences still remain in the
placement and strength of the low pressure. As the low pressure
travels from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes to the
Northeast, another cold front will attempt to reach the Gulf
Coast. Overall, the system is moisture starved so there may be
only slight sensible weather changes early next week.
VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period. Only exception
might be very patchy fog development at the typical problem sites,
namely KMCB, toward tomorrow morning.
A ridge of high pressure will persist over the north Gulf coast
region while gradually weakening through tomorrow. East to northeast
winds around 10 knots or less over inner waters and 10 to 12 knots
over offshore waters are expected with seas/waves 1 to 2 feet. A
reinforcing surge of high pressure is expected to move from the
Great Lakes to the mid to lower Atlantic coast Tuesday into
Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient developing over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A ridge axis will continue to extend from
the high center across the Gulf coast states with a weak high center
possibly setting up over the forecast area on Friday into Saturday.
East to east-southeast winds are expected to rise to around 15 knots
over eastern waters Tuesday night and 15 to 20 knots Wednesday
before easing back slightly on Thursday. Some slight fluctuations in
wind speeds and wave heights are expected Friday into the weekend
with higher winds over southern waters and lighter winds closer to
the high pressure ridge over the northern waters near the tidal
lakes and Mississippi coast.
Seas are expected to peak at 3 to 5 feet over inner waters and 4 to
6 feet over outer coastal waters Wednesday night and occasionally
over the more southern waters Thursday into Saturday. 22/TD
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 50 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 50 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 58 81 62 81 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 56 81 62 79 / 0 0 0 30
PQL 48 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 20