Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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848
FXUS64 KLIX 040834
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

GOING TO BE HARD TO BEAT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE AREA FOR MAY IN THE SOUTH. FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE
INTO THE GULF AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S. DEWPOINTS TONIGHT ARE ALREADY IN MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT SLIGHT...COME BACK LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE LOW OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT KNEW...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND WILL CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN...INCREASED
MIXING OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WATERS BY SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED. THE
HIGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY.   WINDS MAY RISE BACK INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...32



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