Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 220151
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
851 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WHILE THE LOW LEVELS ARE MORE MOIST THIS EVENING...THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY NETTING A FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.21 INCHES. THERE WERE TWO SMALL ABOVE SURFACE LAYER
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WITH THE FIRST LOCATED AROUND 810MB AND THE
SECOND AROUND 650MB. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE FIRST 2000 FEET...THEN FROM THE NORTHEAST UP TO
ABOUT 17000 FEET. WINDS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WERE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND OF 58 KNOTS LOCATED AT 41200M.

00Z BALLOON INFO: THE FIRST LAUNCH WAS NOT DETECTED SO A SECOND
BALLOON WAS LAUNCHED AROUND 2350Z. NO ISSUES WITH SECOND BALLOON
THIS EVENING. THIS BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.5 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND EAST OF NEW ORLEANS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO ISSUES FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES. UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS
WHILE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO ENSURE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST
MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
ENCOUNTER DEEPER GULF SOURCED MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. MORNING LOWS
SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND HOLDS FIRM WELL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL HAVE
SOME GRADIENT COMPRESSION AT TIMES AS WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
GULF. THE MODELS ARE PARTICULARY KEEN ON ONE WAVE LATER IN THE
WEEK THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. THE GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AS A POSSIBLE DEPRESSION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF HAS THIS SAME FEATURE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THIS OUTCOME...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ENOUGH TO BRING A HIGH TIDAL RESPONSE TO
EAST-FACING SHORES LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS THURSDAY ONWARD BUT MAY BE
LIMITED TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. 24/RR

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE
MORE TAF PRONE SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. 11

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AND THEN PUSH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  58  86 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  89  60  83 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  70  89  62  85 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  74  88  70  82 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  71  89  63  84 /  10  30  10  10
PQL  68  88  60  84 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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